Some good horses in Santa Anita derby next weekend

Betting against Wood winners has been working out pretty well in the 21st century. i will reserve judgement until I get the final derby PP's though.

Yup, run your damn horses, they gambled and lost.

and this affects Cairo Prince's issue? Where did he finish in that race?

No problem on your expectations.

1. Many horses are much different animals in May than November. Much more so than the difference between March and May anyways. IC's point(though sarcastic) about how poorly the top 4 finishers from the BCJ do in the Derby is spot on.

2. Horses getting enough points in the BCJ to already get into the Derby will promote connections to go with even less preps than they do now IMO.

3. The quality of horses you have to beat in a March prep is much better than a November G1, which also makes them more significant.

I pretty much ignore IC as I have never seen him post a real bet. Yadda Yadda Yadda but never see him in the selections thread. Where you and I disagree is that I see the current system as encouraging less preps since the real preps don't start until mid Feb. i think they can structure the system where a G1 or G2 win would be nearly automatic but a G3 not. As horse playerI want to see a meaningful prep schedule to look forward to from Breeders cup to Derby.

That's ok.

As I've never seen you post anything interesting, or even something insightful, I feel the same way towards you.

:)

Cool I'm good with that but at least I have the balls to post my opinions however bad they are in the selections thread. You however seem incapable of leaving the Paddock but seem to know everything about everything. Good luck when you finally decide to put down a bet.

so when I post all my wacky ideas in here, but don't post in the selection threads... because most of the time I don't pre-cap races until I get to the track, my opinions are invalid too?

god I love you guys... all of you :)

Sorry. We will keep a seat open for you on selections.

Some people need to impose rigid conditions on themselves to function in life. Without adequate structure, some people implode, thus they need to simplify things. We all do it to some degree.

The funny thing about what jms said is that for about twenty years, horse racing was my religion, and I was as devout a follower as one could imagine. It's very possible that I've placed more bets and gambled more money than he has.

Me and you are on the same page there. The old system was broke because horses that finished 2nd in either the BCJ or Delta Jackpot were already in the KD, no matter what they did afterward. However, the new system doesn't seem to be doing any better in terms of making horses run as 3-year-olds, which I thought was kind of the goal of it.

regarding where the horses are bred, as trainers have pointed out, horses don't know where they were born.

I don’t think this matters, at all.
I Want Revenge would have been a heavy Derby favorite until he was injured. Eskendereya was a stone cold slam dunk triple crown winner until he was injured. **** happens. Ill tell you now, no one excites me this year, at all. I pray Candys Boy and Hoppertunity destroy California Chrome next weekend. Those are the only 2 horses I want at all as of now, maybe Bayern if he gets it together in Arkansas.

:tro: I'm curious to know the graded stakes earnings chart and how it compares to the points system. Who'd be in one way but not in the other, for instance.


It might not just be a plan that backfired. Maybe he really needed that time off. Did he lose weight off the last race? The thing is if he does need time off between races to that degree (and this wasn't just a one time thing where they were trying to get strategic), he's got no business going in the Derby. If you win, you feel bound to go to the Preakness and maybe that's not the best thing for the horse. Aim for things like the Preakness or Haskell.

I'm kinda bummed about Spot's finish. I wanted me some Zito in the Derby, plus the PR for a horse named Spot is kinda great.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that the two best 3yo's come out of the Santa Anita Derby.

Agree. Candy Boy and Hoppertunity.

I don't think Cairo Prince gets in the gate, and that isn't an indictment of the system, it is the fault of the trainer. Leave him in the barn and you risk the horse being flat or a bad trip. I don't think he's all that anyway.

I believe there are 11 horses that would be in with old system that are currently out with new system

current cut off 20 points.....

horses with more than 140k graded earnings but under 20 points.

Ride on Curlin
Tamarando
Strong Mandate
Rise Up
Giovanni Boldini
Candy Boy
In Trouble
Noble Moon
Conquest Titan
Dance With Fate
Casiguapo

As it stands right now Pletcher, Baffert, and Maker will have half the field covered.

Horse Racing is turning into Nascar right before our eyes...but without the fan base.