The question that is hard to answer is how much have economics played a role in this trend? Surely owners were more likely to pull the plug on non or low earners the last 6 or 7 years than in years past and what role does the reduction in number of races offered play? I have no way of proving it but from conversations with other trainers in various parts of the country, the % of owners not paying or being severely tardy paying bills has increased quite a bit in 10 years. The amount of owners asking for 50/50 deals with no bills is crazy compared to 15 years ago. I'd say that 75% of inquires from owners in the last 3 or 4 years for me personally are from people wanting to cut a deal and pay a severely reduced or no day rate. In theory the ones that make the races on a deal would race more in order to make up the lack of expense money but lets be honest, no one is asking for deals on good horses, it the unraced ones with issues that are offered.

I think that supply and demand is in full effect this year. The most recent FT Timonium sale was almost 1/3rd smaller this year than 2011 and the prices were very strong for less than stellar horses. The lower tier horses aren't quite as bad as they used to be because the bad and old mares were taken out of production. Younger mares without great credentials weren't bred. Stallion owners did less filling out of books. Those horses kept the prices overall down but there were always a few low priced gems that came out of the sale. This year and at the end of keeneland those horses that I used to scoop up for 5k are selling for 20k. There is money out there looking to get in because the stock market is riding high.

If you solve this issue, a lot of dominos would fall in place. The answer remains elusive though.

The irony of the foal crop reduction talk is that soon stallion fees for 2014 will be released and I'd be surprised if there weren't a whole lot of increases based on the strong showing in the sales ring this year.

with increases in purses, you'd think you'd have more viability with making a business work. but on the other side of that, there are people who are against the higher purses, because they're afraid owners and trainers will run less than healthy stock to try to get some of the money. it's a difficult situation.
then again, making money can't be the main goal of a horse owner. he's got to be able to stand alone. it'd be nice if the horses could pay their own way, but if someone is facing needing money that badly, what's the chance of a horse getting a break if he needs one, if the owner is in financial trouble?
personally, i'm glad to know the foal crops are getting smaller. the demand is for good horses, that can run. if they're producing less of the low end horses, that's a good move.

Owning horses is like owning a boat. You aren't going to make money.

One day we will only be betting Kittens.

I think this is my favorite post of the year. :D :tro:

War Front's stud fee jumps to $150,000 for 2014