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-   -   Pacific Classic Official time vs trakus (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=51643)

Danzig 08-26-2013 11:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up (Post 942482)
does EVD have trakus?

It seems in this case Trakus has it right and has found a human error.

i doubt they do, especially considering the glaring errors he showed in that thread.

freddymo 08-26-2013 11:53 AM

If Game on ran a 105 then its the fastest 105 in the history of the sport and while all 105's aren't created equally all 105's should be 105. That SOB was cooking

randallscott35 08-26-2013 11:58 AM

I don't see why the 105 is so hard to believe. Huge figs on Synthetic are hard to come by similar to turf....people get too hung up on this. IMO

cmorioles 08-26-2013 12:05 PM

The top row is the 2013 race, the bottom row the 2012 race. I took a snapshot of each race when the opening of the starting gate is complete and noted the time in 100ths of a second on the video. I then took a similar snapshot as close as possible to the first horse hitting the wire for the first time, the 1/4 mile. Granted, these times are not perfect, but they are very close.

I then simply subtract the time I noted at the starting gate from the time I note on the finish line the 1st time.

Code:

2013        Break to finish                30.33 -  5.64 =  24.69 Reported:  24.19
2012        Break to finish                33.73 -  8.51 =  25.22 Reported:  23.61

Projected 2013 actual 1/4 mile time: 
24.69 - (25.22 - 23.61) = 23.08 (Trakus 22.91)

I think that is pretty clear evidence that Trakus is MUCH closer (and probably dead on) to the real time than the teletimer was for this race.


10 pnt move up 08-26-2013 12:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35 (Post 942508)
I don't see why the 105 is so hard to believe. Huge figs on Synthetic are hard to come by similar to turf....people get too hung up on this. IMO

Generally fast figures on turf have to do with slow paces, this was not the case here, and the final time was very quick.

Timeform has it correct anyways, thats all that matters to me.

cmorioles 08-26-2013 12:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35 (Post 942508)
I don't see why the 105 is so hard to believe. Huge figs on Synthetic are hard to come by similar to turf....people get too hung up on this. IMO

A horse wins a grade 1 million dollar race by a pole against some pretty solid horses and you think 105 makes sense?

randallscott35 08-26-2013 12:08 PM

The rest of the horses didn't fire. Was stacked up behind with claimers as close as Graded winners back there. Nice race by Game On but the winning margin was a mirage.

randallscott35 08-26-2013 12:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cmorioles (Post 942511)
A horse wins a grade 1 million dollar race by a pole against some pretty solid horses and you think 105 makes sense?

See above...I'm not saying 105 is correct, but what does it matter. Would 110 make you happier? The purse is the same. Time only matters in jail.

freddymo 08-26-2013 12:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35 (Post 942512)
The rest of the horses didn't fire. Was stacked up behind with claimers as close as Graded winners back there. Nice race by Game On but the winning margin was a mirage.

10 horses didnt fire

randallscott35 08-26-2013 12:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by freddymo (Post 942514)
10 horses didnt fire

Why not? Most of these don't want 10 panels to begin with and there was no pace pressure.

freddymo 08-26-2013 12:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35 (Post 942515)
Why not? Most of these don't want 10 panels to begin with and there was no pace pressure.

It's just not plausible that not one of the horses in the race fired a Par effort for their ability. These aren't First time starters or maidens

randallscott35 08-26-2013 12:19 PM

Tarvers looks high to me if you want to complain about a fig...but I don't lose sleep over this stuff like most.

cmorioles 08-26-2013 12:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35 (Post 942518)
Tarvers looks high to me if you want to complain about a fig...but I don't lose sleep over this stuff like most.

I have the Travers as a poor race. The point here isn't really about the figures though, it is about the actual timing of the race. Why, in 2013, is this so difficult to get right?

asudevil 08-26-2013 12:25 PM

Jay Privman ‏@DRFPrivman 10m
Game On Dude's Beyer Speed Figure for the Pacific Classic is 109. #delmar

cmorioles 08-26-2013 12:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35 (Post 942513)
See above...I'm not saying 105 is correct, but what does it matter. Would 110 make you happier? The purse is the same. Time only matters in jail.

Yeah, that is why the vast majority of odds lines these days can be set by the Beyer figures, because nobody pays attention to figures.

cmorioles 08-26-2013 12:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by asudevil (Post 942520)
Jay Privman ‏@DRFPrivman 10m
Game On Dude's Beyer Speed Figure for the Pacific Classic is 109. #delmar

Keeps creeping up, 105, then 106, now 109...should be 120 by this evening.

randallscott35 08-26-2013 12:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cmorioles (Post 942519)
I have the Travers as a poor race. The point here isn't really about the figures though, it is about the actual timing of the race. Why, in 2013, is this so difficult to get right?

Fair enough. Agreed

asudevil 08-26-2013 12:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cmorioles (Post 942525)
Keeps creeping up, 105, then 106, now 109...should be 120 by this evening.

Crazy, huh? Whatever the fig, it was a sublime performance.

randallscott35 08-26-2013 12:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cmorioles (Post 942524)
Yeah, that is why the vast majority of odds lines these days can be set by the Beyer figures, because nobody pays attention to figures.

Which is why the public lemmings jumped off the cliff with Verrazano off that fig in the Haskell....I liked Moreno as I posted. Pace makes the race. Always.

cmorioles 08-27-2013 10:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35 (Post 942528)
Which is why the public lemmings jumped off the cliff with Verrazano off that fig in the Haskell....I liked Moreno as I posted. Pace makes the race. Always.

Actually, he went off a lot higher than I thought he would.


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