Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up (Post 928781)

Not to boost his ego cause God knows he does not need it but I hope people pay attention to what Doug teaches in some of these threads, not because Oxbow won, but because this and the other pace situations happen every day, and many times in easier races than this.

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord (Post 928812)

Thanks.

I try the best I can not to show my ego...but I don't have much else exciting in my life, other than a girlfriend who always tells me "be humble, Dougie!"

Tough racing circumstances, and Orb made me look like a fool for dismissing him in the Kentucky Derby. I'm sure I cost anyone who listened to me money that day.

I got more favorable circumstance with Oxbow and Itsmyluckyday in this race and it worked out.

I've learned a lot of great things, from much more tolerable, and generally much smarter people than me. I've learned a lot of nuggets from Blackthroatedwind and CJ especially.

Ultimately, you have to believe in what you know and believe in what you do, and find edges anyway you can if you want to survive as a bettor.

The dice rolled kind today. After the Derby, I was the idiot. It's a such great game, and without it, I would have no life at all.

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord (Post 928812)

Thanks.

I try the best I can not to show my ego...but I don't have much else exciting in my life, other than a girlfriend who always tells me "be humble, Dougie!"

Tough racing circumstances, and Orb made me look like a fool for dismissing him in the Kentucky Derby. I'm sure I cost anyone who listened to me money that day.

I got more favorable circumstance with Oxbow and Itsmyluckyday in this race and it worked out.

I've learned a lot of great things, from much more tolerable, and generally much smarter people than me. I've learned a lot of nuggets from Blackthroatedwind and CJ especially.

Ultimately, you have to believe in what you know and believe in what you do, and find edges anyway you can if you want to survive as a bettor.

The dice rolled kind today. After the Derby, I was the idiot. It's a such great game, and without it, I would have no life at all.

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord (Post 928620)

I'm surprised he's the 8th choice in the double and currently 8th choice in the Preakness betting.

I've had a bias against trainer D. Wayne Lukas for a long time, solely because of his consistent very low ROI over the last 15 years.

Oxbow has some compelling factors that interest me.

Here are his recent pace figures and final time figures:





In the Kentucky Derby, Oxbow chased a pace that earned a figure of 112 on a 100 point scale. The race shape was a ridiculous +30 , meaning the ideal position to run an efficient race was about 20 lengths back.

Oxbow's pace figure of 106 was the fastest of his life by 11 points, he ran a 95 in last years Hollywood Futurity and faded to finish 4th beaten 10 lengths.

In his very next start after the Hollywood Futurity, Oxbow got no early pressure, and was able to get away with a pace figure of just 70 in the Lecomte Stake at the Fair Grounds.

Oxbow parlayed the lack of early pressure into an 11.5 length win at odds of 9/2. The second place finisher in the Lecomte, Golden Soul, would later finish 2nd in the Kentucky Derby.

I believe Oxbow ran the race of his life in the Kentucky Derby. However, his performance was masked by a distant 6th place result.

Oxbow's Pedigree is VERY late developing.

His sire Awesome Again didn't even break his maiden until June of his 3yo season...and didn't reach his peak until his perfect 4-year-old season




Oxbow's dam Tizamazing is a FULL sister to both Tiznow and Budroyale.

Tiznow was also late developing, he didn't break his maiden until May 31st of his 3-year-old season:




Budroyale raced more than a dozen times for a claiming tag, and developed into a horse that finished 2nd in the Breeders Cup Classic at age 6.


Oxbow has an extremely anti-precocious pedigree. In his career debut, he did not finish the race and was vanned off.

This horse doesn't have the luxury that horses like slow developers Awesome Again and Tiznow were afforded.

He has been pushed and campaigned hard from the outset, and has performed at a high level even though his pedigree suggests late maturity.

The Preakness will mark Oxbow's 10th start in just 7 months. By comparison, Tiznow was a 0-for-2 maiden at this point in his 3yo season. Awesome Again was one week removed from a 3rd place finish in a maiden race at this point in his 3-year-old season.

I normally like to cross DWL horses out, but Oxbow is a dangerous contender today if the lemon hasn't been squeezed dry. With more patient handling, this could have been an absolute top flight handicap horse.

Originally Posted by Danzig (Post 928829)

doug, i was hoping you would be wrong about oxbow, but i also know just how difficult it can be to win the tc.....theres a reason why only 11 horses have done it. nice call.

Originally Posted by cmorioles (Post 928803)

The "13 Triple Crown Wins" factor?

Originally Posted by pweizer (Post 928834)

I didn't think we were still playing in the 80's.

My hat is off to Lukas for winning another triple crown race after 14 years.

Paul

Originally Posted by cmorioles (Post 928835)

He had 3 in the 80s.

Originally Posted by fpsoxfan (Post 928796)

I wish I read this stuff this morning! Nice work Calzone Doug!

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord (Post 928812)

Thanks.

I try the best I can not to show my ego...but I don't have much else exciting in my life, other than a girlfriend who always tells me "be humble, Dougie!"

Tough racing circumstances, and Orb made me look like a fool for dismissing him in the Kentucky Derby. I'm sure I cost anyone who listened to me money that day.

I got more favorable circumstance with Oxbow and Itsmyluckyday in this race and it worked out.

I've learned a lot of great things, from much more tolerable, and generally much smarter people than me. I've learned a lot of nuggets from Blackthroatedwind and CJ especially.

Ultimately, you have to believe in what you know and believe in what you do, and find edges anyway you can if you want to survive as a bettor.

The dice rolled kind today. After the Derby, I was the idiot. It's a such great game, and without it, I would have no life at all.

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up (Post 928831)

I would also point out that people like Andy Beyer while thinking Orb was the most likely winner there was the nagging issue that the horse has never really ran a fast race.

Originally Posted by pweizer (Post 928836)

I even bet one of the three. But, I am not sure I get the point.

Again, Lukas deserves lots of credit for what he has done with this horse. But, if anyone has been playing his horses for the last decade and a half based on his 13 Triple Crown wins, they would be broke by now.

Paul

Originally Posted by cmorioles (Post 928841)

So what exactly is "the Lukas factor"? He has run a lot of horses that obviously weren't worth betting, but I never dismissed them just because of Lukas.