Derby Trail Forums - 8/1 (SAR): $239k C/O -- Discussion/Contest

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- - 8/1 (SAR): $239k C/O -- Discussion/Contest (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=47725)

pointman

07-31-2012 09:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GPK (Post 879292)

I love So Scott in the 6th tomorrow. If Junior can work out a trip from the 8 hole, I think he has a big shot and may get overlooked, tool.

I might be crazy, but I think Runaway Jim has a shot in this race and will be a huge overlay. I will have to take a flyer to win on him.

hoovesupsideyourhead

07-31-2012 10:27 PM

my longshot is mine over matter..though i think the 1 is going to roll.. the 3 is bs to me..everytime he faces good horses he gets crushed..im not buying the work tab at all.. 1/5/9..

hoovesupsideyourhead

07-31-2012 10:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid (Post 879355)

Ampersand is very much the horse to beat. He only beat Modern Child by a length in that last race, but the gulf between the two efforts was way bigger. Ampersand was the only horse to close any ground in the stretch and was completely up against it from a pace standpoint. My main concern is he looks like he has a little hang in him, as he had every chance to pass the winner in his last two and couldn't do it either time. Gimme Credit is clearly not the horse he once was, but it's not like his recent races are awful. Toss the turf sprint since that's clearly not his game and he fits with these. The way Chad Brown is going, I wouldn't question any move he makes. For me it's the 3 as an A and the 1 and 4 as B's.

he does cut back to a mile witch hes never won at..i think he loses by not closing fast enough.

ADJMK

07-31-2012 11:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pointman (Post 879360)

I might be crazy, but I think Runaway Jim has a shot in this race and will be a huge overlay. I will have to take a flyer to win on him.

I like him too. 3rd off the layoff, dropping back vs Ny breds,great tightner in last, won at the Spa last August and will be right up on the pace in a race that doesn't look to have a lot of pace.
Going vs Ampersand to run his 4th good race in a row.
Have to respect Gimme Credit as Chad has had the horse before and gotten him to the winner circle. Steady string of works since claim have him pointed to this spot with a $69,000 purse.
Also should include So Scott as he never runs a bad race and has had only 2 chances on the turf.
1,6,9 for me in a race that gets more diffiicult each time I look at it.

asudevil

08-01-2012 12:06 AM

To me it seems like the first and last legs are by far the most challenging. How much credence do you all put into the odds board, before the 5th, when constructing your tickets?

ADJMK

08-01-2012 12:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by asudevil (Post 879368)

To me it seems like the first and last legs are by far the most challenging. How much credence do you all put into the odds board, before the 5th, when constructing your tickets?

Board is going to be very important to see how alive any of the firsters are.Pletcher is going to get bet but am wary of the light worktab. Leaning to the Goldberg but am concerned that the Bris form shows he is only 6% out of 53 2nd career starters.

asudevil

08-01-2012 12:35 AM

I'm intrigued by Zazz....Homebred...I believe Tapit has had several baby winners lately...could be wrong.....I also like Matz win % and ROI with 2yo. No question that the Pletcher runner opens up at 6/5.

ADJMK

08-01-2012 01:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dpkovalesky (Post 879322)

will the 1 in the 7th forget to stop? who else is going to go with her early?

If she would relax on the lead she could steal but have a feeling the #10 will be right at her flank and willing to take a shot the #10 takes to the turf at juicy odds.

golfer

08-01-2012 06:04 AM

I think Gimme Credit is a must use in the 6th. Although the old guy may have lost a step, and may need more time to get going, I thought he ran quite well in his last, and I think with the time off, he will be ready to run his best today.

I also think Stay Composed is very dangerous in the 7th as lone speed and cutting back just a bit to 5.5.

My contest ticket (pre scratches):

3,4,7

1,3,

1,3,5

1,3,7

1,3,4,5

2,3,6,10

$1728

GPK	08-01-2012 06:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pointman (Post 879360)

I might be crazy, but I think Runaway Jim has a shot in this race and will be a huge overlay. I will have to take a flyer to win on him.

100% with you on Runaway Jim.

Won't be around to post a ticket after scratches. If I had to play one:

4,7/
1,2,3,4,6,9/
3,5,8/
6,7/
1,3,5/
2,3,6,8

$1,728

Bogey

08-01-2012 06:59 AM

Contest Ticket

PK6 - 3 4 7 / 1 3 7 9 / 2 3 6 / 3 5 6 8 / 1 3 5 / 3 = $864

PK6 - 3 / 1 3 7 9 / 2 3 6 / 3 5 6 8 / 1 3 5 / 3 = $288

Total = $1152

#3 Spielberg (Singleton in the nightcap)

Good Racing Luck

cassie

08-01-2012 08:46 AM

contest

3,4,7/3,4,6,9/3,5,7/3,7/1,3,5/3,7,8,10 $1,728

wiphan

08-01-2012 09:23 AM

Actual ticket with some co-workers
3,7/1,3,9/3,5,10/3,7/1,3,5/3,7
$432

wiphan

08-01-2012 09:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GPK (Post 879378)

100% with you on Runaway Jim.

Won't be around to post a ticket after scratches. If I had to play one:

4,7/
1,2,3,4,6,9/
3,5,8/
6,7/
1,3,5/
2,3,6,8

$1,728

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vY2pF9aNqLE

Runaway Jim

Gate Dancer

08-01-2012 10:28 AM

Taking a stab................

R5: 3,4,7
R6: 2,3,5
R7: 5,6,10
R8: 1,3,7
R9: 3,5
R10: 2,3,4,6,10

$1720

Should pay well to anyone that hits it :$::$::$:

jad	08-01-2012 10:36 AM

joe de

5....36
6....39
7....234510
8....17...the 1 could nose
9....13
10...34

$160.....

pmacdaddy

08-01-2012 10:38 AM

Contest

Ticket #1
R5 - 3
R6 - 3,9
R7 - 3,5,8,10
R8 - 3,7,8
R9 - 1,3,5,9
R10 - 2,3,4,6,7,10
$1,152

Ticket #2
R5 - 4,7
R6 - 3,9
R7 - 3,5,8,10
R8 - 7,8
R9 - 3
R10 - 2,3,4,6,7,10
$768

Small reality try...
R5 - 3
R6 - 3,9
R7 - 3,5
R8 - 7,8
R9 - 3
R10 - 2,4,6,10
$64

GL!

Fulla Sheets

08-01-2012 11:27 AM

Contest Play

5th: 3,4,7
6th: 1,3,9
7th: 1,3,5
8th: 3,7
9th: 1,3,4,5
10th: 2,3,6,10
$1728

pointman

08-01-2012 11:35 AM

Contest Play

$1,728

5- 3,4,7
6- 3,4,5,6,9,10
7- 3,11
8- 7,8
9- 3,4
10- 2,3,4,6,7,10

DJARUM

08-01-2012 11:40 AM

Contest Play $1920

3-4-5-7
1-3-4-8-9
1-3-5-6
3-7-8
1-3-5-7
8

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