I'd be more worried about the fact that the horse is slower than a turtle -- Cooper (whoever he is) gets everything ready to fire. That's a normal worktab for him.

If that's the case, can you explain why you would pick it to win? I'm honestly trying to learn something here, not trying to be obnoxious.

Basically a case where I believe that the horse represents the best value in the race.

I have two goals when I "pick" races --- goal #1 is to try and post a fairly high win percentage. Goal #2 is for the top pick to show a profit at the end of the season.

A horse like this is 20-to-1 on the morning-line and 200-to-1 on paper -- however, it is 1st time Cooper from a trainer he will move up on. Also, the turf debut wasn't so bad.

Cooper is a magician -- and more importantly he's under the radar and deals with cheaper horses. You don't worry about silly stuff like fitness when you deal with alchemist trainers getting new horses.

He may very well not get this rat to be competitive ... but the edge is first time for him.

It may seem perverted to pick horses who don't have a competitive race on paper ... and very rarely do I ... but in special situations I will stab at one of them and I've gotten lucky more than a fair share when I have in the past.