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-   -   Super Tuesday in Erie and I won't be on hand (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=46686)

Calzone Lord 05-11-2012 01:06 PM
The Lomax win looks like it came over a speed-biased racetrack.

1st race of the day: wire-to-wire at 37-to-1 odds.

2nd race of the day: wire-to-wire by five lengths at 16/1 odds.

3rd race of the day: wire-to-wire at 9/1 odds.

4th: route -- pace setter was 2nd at 3/1

5th race: Lomax wire-to-wire by 23.5

6th - pace setter was 2nd at 3/1

Off the pace types won 3 of the next 4 races.

MaTH716 05-11-2012 01:08 PM
If you had to guess, what odds will he go off at?

Calzone Lord 05-11-2012 01:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by slotdirt (Post 860020)
I realize we're talking about a horse winning its debut by a zillion lengths at MNR, but the jock never asked the horse to run even once. It will be interesting to see if there's anything more to the horse.
He went 3.80 seconds faster than the split heat.

So, had he run in the other open MSW division for males that day -- he would have won that race by 20+ lengths as well.

That's by far the fastest Mountaineer Park debuter I ever recall ... but it looks like the inside-speed friendly nature of the track that day flattered him. He didn't even break all that well -- and a horse who had been 2nd in a MCL 25K at Tampa this winter was used up trying to hook. Bias aided or not -- still tremendously impressive for that level. The fact that he was wrapped up with the ears pricked isn't a big deal to me. The horse was sprinting home and it's doubtful he could have gone any faster. That's normally a pretty slow track down there.

cmorioles 05-11-2012 01:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Calzone Lord (Post 860024)
He went 3.80 seconds faster than the split heat.

So, had he run in the other open MSW division for males that day -- he would have won that race by 20+ lengths as well.

That's by far the fastest Mountaineer Park debuter I ever recall ... but it looks like the inside-speed friendly nature of the track that day flattered him. He didn't even break all that well -- and a horse who had been 2nd in a MCL 25K at Tampa this winter was used up trying to hook. Bias aided or not -- still tremendously impressive for that level. The fact that he was wrapped up with the ears pricked isn't a big deal to me. The horse was sprinting home and it's doubtful he could have gone any faster. That's normally a pretty slow track down there.
He didn't run particularly fast early, so the 96 isn't likely to be repeated unless he is a total freak. This is what I gave the race on a Beyer scale:

Code:
04/30/2012  5    79    80    97
So, yes, he flew home, but any good horse would have also given those numbers early.

Calzone Lord 05-11-2012 01:20 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MaTH716 (Post 860022)
If you had to guess, what odds will he go off at?
Hard to say. That's a brutally tough spot he''s entered in for just 100K. There are five horses in there who are proven stakes caliber horses.

I would scratch him. Makes no sense rushing back in two weeks off such a huge debut performance. Wait for an entry level alw race here where he'll romp. Conditions are worth it in PA. They already wasted the MSW at Mountaineer for a lousy 17K purse.

slotdirt 05-11-2012 01:24 PM
Really, I'm just looking for another Fabulous Strike.

Calzone Lord 05-11-2012 01:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by slotdirt (Post 860030)
Really, I'm just looking for another Fabulous Strike.
You'll be looking for a long time.

Fabulous Strike debuted at Tampa Bay Downs when I was there on-track --- he split the field.

He didn't become a sensation until he got hooked up with the alchemist at Penn National. But damn, was he tough.

slotdirt 05-11-2012 01:28 PM
I just recall him running some bang-up races at MNR before making it "big."

Calzone Lord 05-11-2012 01:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by cmorioles (Post 860027)
He didn't run particularly fast early, so the 96 isn't likely to be repeated unless he is a total freak. This is what I gave the race on a Beyer scale:

Code:
04/30/2012  5    79    80    97
So, yes, he flew home, but any good horse would have also given those numbers early.
That's a good point.

But, he did run pretty fast early for a MSW horse at Mountaineer. For people who don't know, those type of races are typically won with Beyers of like 50.

The dam of this horse did route. She had won 5 in a row before finishing 4th in a Graded Stake (Delaware Oaks) going long.

Calzone Lord 05-11-2012 01:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by slotdirt (Post 860035)
I just recall him running some bang-up races at MNR before making it "big."
He did. He ran 2 HUGE races at Mountaineer as a 3yo and one as a 4yo if I recall.

cmorioles 05-11-2012 01:51 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Calzone Lord (Post 860037)
That's a good point.

But, he did run pretty fast early for a MSW horse at Mountaineer. For people who don't know, those type of races are typically won with Beyers of like 50.

The dam of this horse did route. She had won 5 in a row before finishing 4th in a Graded Stake (Delaware Oaks) going long.
It is funny looking at the PPs of the other horses. The runner up, in a race where the winner was given a 96, gets a 36. I don't think I've ever seen a bigger gap, certainly not in a sprint.

Not a single horse has run back yet from the race. I'll be watching for the horse that pressed him for a while, Distinct Thriller. He was given a 25 Beyer, but he probably ran as well as he did the day he ran his top, a 51.

philcski 05-11-2012 10:05 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by cmorioles (Post 860027)
He didn't run particularly fast early, so the 96 isn't likely to be repeated unless he is a total freak. This is what I gave the race on a Beyer scale:

Code:
04/30/2012  5    79    80    97
So, yes, he flew home, but any good horse would have also given those numbers early.
Good horses don't debut at Mountaineer, except for this rare exception. Most horses in a MSW at Mnr with those early pace numbers would stop like they're carrying lead weight. Color me impressed.

philcski 05-11-2012 10:07 PM
Douglas- if you change your mind on the vacation, there is a 20-25% chance I will be there on Tuesday. Long story, but I probably have to drive back to WNY again next week. If I do, I'll probably stop in drErie and ride the Ravine Flyer again and hit the opening night card at PID.

Sightseek 05-13-2012 08:19 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Calzone Lord (Post 859923)
The Lomax race is a sprint.

I narrowed down the vacation options to anywhere she wanted to drive...because I sure am not driving outside of the city limits.

Her gay roommate is encouraging her to choose New York City...so it probably will be there.

I was initially thinking Cleveland or Baltimore would be perfect.

Cleveland is perfect because they have the worlds best amusement park in Cedar Point near-by and because my dopey Air traffic controller brother lives there. But Cedar Point doesn't open until two weeks from now.

She can't get off of work on Friday or Saturday -- or Baltimore would have been the choice. Inner Harbor + Preakness.

Anything that doesn't involve roller coasters or horse tracks -- I'd personally have no interest in seeing. I'm probably the most boring person in the world...but that remains her problem.
:D :tro:

3kings 05-14-2012 08:48 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by cmorioles (Post 860044)
It is funny looking at the PPs of the other horses. The runner up, in a race where the winner was given a 96, gets a 36. I don't think I've ever seen a bigger gap, certainly not in a sprint.

Not a single horse has run back yet from the race. I'll be watching for the horse that pressed him for a while, Distinct Thriller. He was given a 25 Beyer, but he probably ran as well as he did the day he ran his top, a 51.
Congrats on tabbing Distinct Thriller as a horse to watch. Sorry the price didn't turn out better for you in his win last night at Mountaneer. Your input on DT is appreciated and helps others improve their handicapping skills. Thank you.

DEES3 05-14-2012 08:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Calzone Lord (Post 860039)
He did. He ran 2 HUGE races at Mountaineer as a 3yo and one as a 4yo if I recall.
If I remember right, he broke Talent Search's will pretty badly in one of those races.

ninetoone 05-14-2012 10:24 PM
CL...can you post Fabulous Strike's lifetime PP's?

Left Bank 05-15-2012 04:32 PM
I see some jockey's in the PP's, James Graham and C.C. Lopez. I wonder if they are just there for the day or for the meet? Graham wins the opener for Sheppard.

booner 05-15-2012 06:33 PM
Leparoux also came in today. Only riding 1 race (Sum of the Parts in the Tom Ridge).

I also noticed that Matz has an entry in the Inaugural (Brilliant Katie). Leparoux was on her maiden-breaker at Keeneland, but Rocco has the mount. Think there is still post-Derby friction there?

Don't know about Lopez, but willing to bet Graham is in for just today. He has been riding at Arlington and haven't heard about him moving his tack to PID.

santana 05-15-2012 06:42 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by booner (Post 861093)
Leparoux also came in today. Only riding 1 race (Sum of the Parts in the Tom Ridge).

I also noticed that Matz has an entry in the Inaugural (Brilliant Katie). Leparoux was on her maiden-breaker at Keeneland, but Rocco has the mount. Think there is still post-Derby friction there?

Don't know about Lopez, but willing to bet Graham is in for just today. He has been riding at Arlington and haven't heard about him moving his tack to PID.

Leparoux rode for matz in race 6....jock change.....even money ??? Just crazy.


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