The impact of the stories and the Borels of the world etc. is significant.

Last year, Pants on Fire (Rosie) was the second favorite in the Derby at odds of 8-1, yet he was the 10th ranked horse in the Oaks/Derby double.

Twice the Appeal (Borel) was the world's biggest underlay at 12-1 in the Derby, but was the 14th ranked horse in the Oaks/Derby double.

Watch Me Go was just 34-1, one tick lower than Comma to the Top, despite the double to Watch Me Go paying $2,068 vs. $883 for Comma.

...and there are plenty more examples going back. With so much "fun money" in the win pool, it's never a true gauge of how the horseplayer public is playing the race.