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-   -   "Charismatic" on ESPN (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=43923)

Calzone Lord 10-18-2011 08:32 PM

I'm not sure what Ron Anderson was babbling about when he was attempting to defend the ride ... the horse ran his race and didn't break down until after the finish line.

If you're taking the position of defending the ride - it's a very simple explanation - the filly Silverbulletday came into that race with form and numbers that were clearly superior to any of Charismatic's male rivals.

If Silverbulletday was allowed no pressure on an uncontested lead -- she was almost 100% likely to run to her best numbers. Charismatic was also stretching out off of a very fast paced 9.5 furlong race - and was never that far back in the Derby -- what really made the ride appear to be so terrible after the fact was the dismal way Silverbulletday performed in the final quarter mile after getting all that pressure through very legit fractions.





SILVERBULLETDAY




Was it a terrible ride? In a sense that Charismatic still ran to his good form despite the more forward tactics - and his best challenger fell apart very late from the pressure - the tactics actually worked because they achieved the desired goal in that sense.

The problem was two horses (Lemon Drop Kid and Vision And Verse) both made significant improvement over the form they brought into the race.

Trying to erase an advantage of your toughest competitior on paper is A LOT different than doing something truly insane and going after a 100/1 shot on paper like Franklin did in '79.

That aside -- Antley was one F'ed up mo-fo who needed help.

blackthroatedwind 10-18-2011 08:36 PM

Silverbulletday was not a serious threat to win that race....though I get your point.

Ron's comments were absurd.

wac 10-18-2011 08:36 PM

i thouhgt it was pretty well done i was glad that thye told the whole story about antley and didn't leave out the bad parts i thought pretty good show and im sure i'll watch it again. i just hope that when they are done wiht the horse he can come to old friends i live just a 45min drive and would love to see him. did nto really know about the ride he gave the horse in the race but i wonder if it woudl have mattered who knows. Overall well done show.

Calzone Lord 10-18-2011 09:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind (Post 811747)
Silverbulletday was not a serious threat to win that race....though I get your point.

Her and Menifee were the only two rivals in the race under 9/1 odds... and he had just beaten Menifee twice and Menifee didn't even manage to finish ahead of Silverbulletday in that Belmont.

Bad ride or not - I think his fear was SBD jogging on an uncontested lead and he having to worry about coming from mid-pack behind a slower pace with other jocks trying to race-ride him.

Because of the way the film was presented -- it might leave some thinking his brain was cooked from drugs, or from partying the night before, or lack of sleep or whatever. Certainly that wasn't the case. He simply had his eye on SBD the whole way and didn't seem too concerned about Menifee .. the rest were all longshots.

KirisClown 10-18-2011 09:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind (Post 811747)
Ron's comments were absurd.

They really were bad.. Maybe he hasn't seen the replay since 99 to remember when the horse broke down..

I wasn't aware that Lukas talked with Lewis about a jock switch between the Preakness and Belmont.. I wonder if someone like Bailey or McCarron would have made a difference..

Calzone Lord 10-18-2011 10:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KirisClown (Post 811755)
I wonder if someone like Bailey or McCarron would have made a difference..

I think it's more a question of tactics than riders. Silverbulletday was still leading after 10 furlongs -- but the way she performed in the last quarter mile with all that good pressure through legit fractions - in hindsight - the thing to do would have been to ignore her and let her have a free ride.

In a case like this, the name of the jockey isn't as important and as the read and strategy the jockey has going into the race.

blackthroatedwind 10-18-2011 10:22 PM

Antley was a truly great rider....that ride aside.

PeteMugg 10-19-2011 04:03 AM

Perhaps CA thought he was sitting on a tremendous machine. Winning a TC just wasn't enough, had to be over the top.

Revidere 10-19-2011 08:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KirisClown (Post 811755)
They really were bad.. Maybe he hasn't seen the replay since 99 to remember when the horse broke down..

I wasn't aware that Lukas talked with Lewis about a jock switch between the Preakness and Belmont.. I wonder if someone like Bailey or McCarron would have made a difference..

In "three Strides Before the Wire" Lukas is quoted right after the Belmont as saying he had no issue with the ride. I believe (and I'll check sources) his quote, and I am paraphrasing was "why give up what comes easily and take back 6-7 lengths and have to make them up later".

Also, Chris rode for Lukas after the Belmont. He rode Magicalmysterycat to win the Landaluce in July 1999. He also rode Commendable for Lukas in the San Felipe so I guess all was forgiven?

Kasept 10-19-2011 09:21 AM

2 More Airings.. if you missed
 
WEDNESDAY, OCT. 19
-- ESPN: 9 p.m.

SUNDAY, OCT. 23
-- ESPN: 10 p.m.

Thunder Gulch 10-19-2011 09:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord (Post 811745)
I'm not sure what Ron Anderson was babbling about when he was attempting to defend the ride ... the horse ran his race and didn't break down until after the finish line.

If you're taking the position of defending the ride - it's a very simple explanation - the filly Silverbulletday came into that race with form and numbers that were clearly superior to any of Charismatic's male rivals.

If Silverbulletday was allowed no pressure on an uncontested lead -- she was almost 100% likely to run to her best numbers. Charismatic was also stretching out off of a very fast paced 9.5 furlong race - and was never that far back in the Derby -- what really made the ride appear to be so terrible after the fact was the dismal way Silverbulletday performed in the final quarter mile after getting all that pressure through very legit fractions.





SILVERBULLETDAY




I remember the effortless move to the front that Silverbulletday made in the Oaks and I still believe she would have been tough to beat in the Derby. I guess Baffert didn't want his superb fillies facing off, but he sent the wrong one on the wrong day.

TouchOfGrey 10-19-2011 10:46 AM

DRF | Barbara Livingson remembers Chris Antley

justindew 10-19-2011 11:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord (Post 811750)
Her and Menifee were the only two rivals in the race under 9/1 odds... and he had just beaten Menifee twice and Menifee didn't even manage to finish ahead of Silverbulletday in that Belmont.

Bad ride or not - I think his fear was SBD jogging on an uncontested lead and he having to worry about coming from mid-pack behind a slower pace with other jocks trying to race-ride him. Because of the way the film was presented -- it might leave some thinking his brain was cooked from drugs, or from partying the night before, or lack of sleep or whatever. Certainly that wasn't the case. He simply had his eye on SBD the whole way and didn't seem too concerned about Menifee .. the rest were all longshots.

You are giving him way, way too much credit here. There was no logic behind it whatsoever.

Clip-Clop 10-19-2011 11:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord (Post 811745)
I'm not sure what Ron Anderson was babbling about when he was attempting to defend the ride ... the horse ran his race and didn't break down until after the finish line.

If you're taking the position of defending the ride - it's a very simple explanation - the filly Silverbulletday came into that race with form and numbers that were clearly superior to any of Charismatic's male rivals.

If Silverbulletday was allowed no pressure on an uncontested lead -- she was almost 100% likely to run to her best numbers. Charismatic was also stretching out off of a very fast paced 9.5 furlong race - and was never that far back in the Derby -- what really made the ride appear to be so terrible after the fact was the dismal way Silverbulletday performed in the final quarter mile after getting all that pressure through very legit fractions.





SILVERBULLETDAY




Was it a terrible ride? In a sense that Charismatic still ran to his good form despite the more forward tactics - and his best challenger fell apart very late from the pressure - the tactics actually worked because they achieved the desired goal in that sense.

The problem was two horses (Lemon Drop Kid and Vision And Verse) both made significant improvement over the form they brought into the race.

Trying to erase an advantage of your toughest competitior on paper is A LOT different than doing something truly insane and going after a 100/1 shot on paper like Franklin did in '79.

That aside -- Antley was one F'ed up mo-fo who needed help.

Why does her running line not reflect the race she ran?

Travis Stone 10-19-2011 11:04 AM

Antley was my favorite jockey growing-up. I still remember when I finally got his "jockey trading card" at Saratoga.

Calzone Lord 10-19-2011 05:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by justindew (Post 811811)
You are giving him way, way too much credit here. There was no logic behind it whatsoever.

It happens in dozens of races everyday throughout the country. It doesn't always backfire either... but it looks real bad when it does.

Take Jerry Bailey's ride on Cigar in the Pac Classic for instance. Bailey had Cigar more forward than he needed to be in order to press Siphon (who he said after the race he felt was his only danger) and the hapless Dare And Go roared past them both in the stretch.

OldDog 10-20-2011 08:01 AM

I can’t say whether Antley’s ride cost Charismatic the Triple Crown, but I do like the case that CalzoneLord and others make in defense of it. I remember the disappointment of seeing him falter down the stretch, the gut wrenching feeling when Chris pulled him up, and later the relief of hearing that his injuries weren’t life threatening.

It’s unfortunate that the “story” is about Antley’s drug dependence, although sadly it is and will always be a dominant story line in his career. But man, what a jockey. When he was “right,” he was so damn good. What a sweet time it is when horse, jockey, trainer and owner come together in a flash of perfection, and sweeter still when the horse and rider are enjoying moments of redemption. If only it could have lasted. Barbara Livingston’s photos are a reminder of just how great the good times were.

Finally, I was disappointed that the film didn’t present more about the story of the horse for which it was named.

scat daddy 10-20-2011 06:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind (Post 811762)
Antley was a truly great rider....that ride aside.

Agree 100%..had skills that most jocks could only dream about it...strong demon had one hell of a hold on him..always wondered how great he really could have been...RIP Ant Man..

Scat OUT

Arletta 10-20-2011 09:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TouchOfGrey (Post 811810)

:tro:

pmayjr 10-25-2011 09:59 PM

****! I missed the Sunday replay too. Hopefully they'll play it one more time next week in promotion for the Breeders Cup


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