I like River Jetez as well but I'm wondering why you think she's so much faster than Stacelita early. River Jetez ran really well in the Singapore International Cup but the pace in that race was glacial. The pace in the Dubai Duty Free was a bit stronger but the 3/4s was :14 and 4/5. She is hardly some kind of blazing speed horse.

Stacelita received an embarassingly bad ride in the UN last time. She has now been with Chad Brown for a month and is certainly going to have a bit more speed with an American training regimen. Her workout two back was not the type a horse who will be out-paced puts up. If Stacelita is beaten it will likely have more to do with her regressing in her 2nd start in America or River Jetez simply being better, but I don't know if I'd assume it will be because Stacelita is some plodder who will be outrun early.

I think you're too exact in extrapolating the European running lines of these horses with the way they will likely run here in an American-style race.

Look at the form and running styles of previous Million winners Debussy and Powerscourt. In Europe, both liked to sit up on or near the lead and tended to be one-paced in the latter stages, seemingly without significant "turn of foot". However, in the States, both horses settled off the early pace and made dramatic moves to finish strongly. I expect more of the same, at least from Treasure Beach. Jamie Spencer rode Powerscourt, so he ought to know his way around, but at the same time, he seems brain dead, so it wouldn't be a shock to see him botch the ride on Cape Blanco, with his past success on the lead. Settled off the pace, Cape Blanco would probably be more a terror in this field than he is now.

Another point, whereas Treasure Beach may perhaps prefer 12f (he was handy enough to win at 7f twice as a 2yo though), what American hope really wants the 10f? Don't really see any in the Secretariat. In a cleanly run race, he probably only has the French horse to worry about.

Is second off the plane ever a good spot

She gets the rail, and the shortest way around is a good thing. G1 looms large.

The horse I'm most impressed with, having seen every waking moment of his trip outside of the quarantine stable, is Wigmore Hall. This horse couldn't be doing any better, especially compared to what I've heard about his exploits in Singapore.

God I love that old guy.

Couldn't be any easier here... Wigmore Hall and River Jetez.

She needs to behave and go in the gate and that will be that, as they say.

edit...

Oh that's good to know! (I hadn't read this before I posted but yeah... he likes the track and has Haley, etc., so this just adds to it!).

While I am more impressed with River Jetez, I'll agree with you in that he seems to be really doing well.

Alot of action this morning.

River Jetez was by far the most impressive as she jogged once around and then 'blew out' on the lawn. I caught the last 1/4 in 25 with the dogs out and rider completely still. She looks great.

Wigmore Hall was feeling great this morning and also galloped strong on the lawn with the dogs out.

Newsdad looked unbelievable on the poly today. Galloped without the blinkers (which will be added race day). He is gonna be an auto use on Saturday.

Pachattack's morning was unorthodox as she came on the track with the pony, galloped 9 furlongs on the poly and then went on to the turf course to gallop another 9 furlongs. She is obviously pretty quirky but doing unbelievable. Being here for the whole summer is gonna prove beneficial on Saturday (at least for 2nd place honors)

Gio Ponti came onto the track around 7:15 and stood for about 10 minutes. Jogged once around and was bucking and playing before he left out the mile pole horsepath.

Thought Check the Label and Dubawi Heights looked average at best

Mission Approved jogged around the turf course with good steady energy

I thought Check The Label came by making a bunch of noise and after some discussion, really have no interest in Cheetah or Dubawi Heights.

River Jetez is a big time use for me as well.

I am with you on Newsdad. I can't use him on my primary tickets, but he'll a backup use and also a key in placings on intra-race plays. They didn't expect him to be that far back and suffered a ton of ground loss at Colonial.

I just wanted to add something if you don't mind..

The Equus Awards are handed out tonight and MDK"s filly and champion, Igugu, is pretty much a shoo-in for Horse of the Year.

It's not like there was nothing better to do had he stayed home... ;) :)

(edit - She won).

FYI revised weather reports have changed locally and it seems likely the lawn will be less than firm. Showers after midnight tonight and showers/t-storms predicted tomorrow.

For anyone interested...

The journey.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q0eeiAdJ0rc

what was last night like rain wise in Arlington?

Nada Kev, today is the problem with 50% afternoon showers. Good luck!

Thx Gus for that - rain changes a lot of the dynamics of the race - hope you do well.. Ill be looking for a Ziyarid - River Jetez - Zack Hall big race treble but would settle for Gio winning the big one too..

I hope u hit the P3 cold! :D:$:

Neither will win.

love blocks horse in the bev d pp 11

I like that one too.

Ziyarid / River Jetez / Wigmore Hall

Good luck!

Pouring buckets now at Arlington.

I'll be betting Zack Hall in the AM.