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-   -   5/25: Belmont Park ($43k C/O) (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=42431)

MISTERGEE 05-25-2011 02:40 PM

Mclaughlin is 4 for 14 off layoffs the last yr at Belmont with a Plus 52% ROI

Dahoss 05-25-2011 02:43 PM

I think you guys are all sort of right. Yes, she did improve and based on Kiaran's numbers coming back and the field she beat last time was tough to bet.

But, she didn't exactly have to beat much in the race and didn't run that well. It's not like the 2-3 finishers are very good and she was able to get a perfect trip off the other contenders who dueled. Not a playable horse IMO, but also not totally out of the ordinary either.

Dahoss 05-25-2011 02:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MISTERGEE (Post 778972)
Mclaughlin is 4 for 14 off layoffs the last yr at Belmont with a Plus 52% ROI

No he isn't.

MISTERGEE 05-25-2011 02:53 PM

thats what equibase trackmaster has him at

MISTERGEE 05-25-2011 02:56 PM

http://partners.trackmaster.com/cgi-...=EQB&TRACK=BEL

Kasept 05-25-2011 02:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid (Post 778967)
Right, because we've never seen Darley blow a ton of money on well-bred horses who can't run before. The point is that the horse was unbettable at 3-1, so you either have to pass the race or play against her and cross your fingers that she's not going to jump into a new stratosphere first time back.

She's a Shadwell purchase, and you know their use of money is consistenty more judicious. I didn't bet the race other than use her (and others) in the P3's & P4, but Eric Donovan pointed in the right direction making her the second choice. I just can't see why you're making out like this was some stunning putover. She won by a couple lengths in 1:10.1. Likely a low/mid 80's Beyer, in line with natural development from 2 to 3. What's so shocking after she left the scene at 2 breaking her maiden with a 75?

ateamstupid 05-25-2011 03:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept (Post 778985)
She's a Shadwell purchase, and you know their use of money is consistenty more judicious. I didn't bet the race other than use her (and others) in the P3's & P4, but Eric Donovan pointed in the right direction making her the second choice. I just can't see why you're making out like this was some stunning putover. She won by a couple lengths in 1:10.1. Likely a low/mid 80's Beyer, in line with natural development from 2 to 3. What's so shocking after she left the scene at 2 breaking her maiden with a 75?

My guess is closer to 90 today, and based on the field she beat in her maiden race, that 75 even looked a little generous. The bottom line is like I said, if it wasn't a McLaughlin horse, she would've been 10-1 or higher and most likely run like it.

To play this horse, you had to (a). completely disregard the poor field behind her in her maiden race, (b). assume she'd improve 10-15 points off an 8-month layoff and (c). assume this wasn't a tightener for something longer, considering she had last run at a mile and McLaughlin's layoff numbers. For all of that, you got 3-1. Things like that just make the race unplayable.

hockey2315 05-25-2011 03:09 PM

Anybody want to post top two from races 6,7,8 for me? Equibase mobile is sucking.

Scav 05-25-2011 03:12 PM

6: 9-4-10

7: 1-3-4

NTamm1215 05-25-2011 03:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315 (Post 778996)
Anybody want to post top two from races 6,7,8 for me? Equibase mobile is sucking.

Race 6 was 9-4-10. They're going in the gate for the 7th right now.

hockey2315 05-25-2011 03:15 PM

Thanks, Nick.

NTamm1215 05-25-2011 03:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315 (Post 779004)
Thanks, Nick.

No problem. Race 7 was 1-3-4.

hockey2315 05-25-2011 03:18 PM

Wow couldn't have been further off in either of those.

hockey2315 05-25-2011 03:20 PM

Sorry, Scav. Didn't see your post. Thanks to you too.

Dahoss 05-25-2011 03:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MISTERGEE (Post 778982)
thats what equibase trackmaster has him at

The problem is that isn't separating surface, amount of layoff, etc. Too broad for my taste.

GPK 05-25-2011 05:58 PM

This Curatolo kid is starting to get on my f*cking nerves.

ateamstupid 05-25-2011 06:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GPK (Post 779054)
This Curatolo kid is starting to get on my f*cking nerves.

:tro:

Even though I thankfully had Much Fanfare, he's beaten me plenty of times this meet. He's getting better and better mounts too. Could be Leparoux part deux.

GPK 05-25-2011 06:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid (Post 779058)
:tro:

Even though I thankfully had Much Fanfare, he's beaten me plenty of times this meet. He's getting better and better mounts too. Could be Leparoux part deux.

I just can't seem to catch the kid, Joe. Driving me batsh*t crazy. I couldn't bring myself to use that horse. Persaud is just God awful on the turf. I needed the 2 or 7 for nice doubles.:wf

declansharbor 05-25-2011 07:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315 (Post 778996)
Anybody want to post top two from races 6,7,8 for me? Equibase mobile is sucking.

It seems like results come in a half hour late somedays. I usually end up having to call my phonebet acct and find out that way.

Kasept 05-25-2011 08:25 PM

Alseera 86 Beyer


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