No DaHoss, you have to remember that when he loses he becomes a fraud.

He won't lose this year unless he gets hurt. He is the best 2yr old out there and the second best is not close. That doesn't mean he will be a great horse next year. Anything can happen, but he will not be beat this year.

And we should listen to you based on your prediction(s) in the Hopeful...

That was my prediction. Tiz Wonderful is from somebody that knows what he is talking about.

I didn't see Tiz W run, so I have no opinion, but if they like him and unload, I wish them luck...

I hope he Tiz Fast, because that Coolmore horse keeps delivering when asked.

I have more claim to Tiz Wonderful than you guys. I knew about him 6 months ago. I saw him work a 1/4 in :20 3/5 at the Fasig Tipton Calder Sale. It was the fastest work at the entire sale. He was easy money for me first-time out on Saturday. The price was a gift.

The best 2 year old colt of them all still hasn't run yet. It's a Red Bullet colt that Darley bought at the Barrett's May Sale for $2.5 million. Out of about 2000 or so 2 year olds that I watched work at diffrent sales this year, this one was easily the best. I don't know when he's going to run. I think he's in New York right now. I believe that Eion Harty trains him.

Rup,
How do you know that the works in the spring will translate to the track?
I'm not hearing very good things about the Green monkey(to say the least) and I guess it has me wondering.
What percentage of the exceptional workerse become great horses in your opinion?

This rhymes. Cool. More.

Oh yes, I agree. That horse is wonderful!!! I can't wait until he makes his debut. I believe that he'll blow all the other horses backwards from the sheer force of him taking off around the final turn on the track. Okay, maybe that's a bit of an exaggeration, but he is unbelievable, and if he starts enough times to get him ready the BC...that is my BC Juv. horse. He'll win first time out. I would also love to see that Indian Charlie colt start too. You know which one that I am talking about. Any news on him?

Oh yeah, the Red Bullet colt's name is Unbridled Slew. The Indian Charlie colt is called Past The Point. I'm not seeing workouts on either one.

It sure is nice to here all this positive praise for various colts. Pne think i have to disagre about is the no tatical speed for CQ. When the button is pushed he is the fastest of all and I feel in a larger field he has enough speed to spot anywhere he wants. Granted his last two races he got left in the gate but I dont feel ths was by design. He has been trained to control his speed and that puts him way ahead of most right now. Isnt one of the top West coasters Cobalt Blue? Im not sure of the name but he has looked the best of the westcoasters to me.

The best of the west right now is Principle's Secret. Great Hunter is also very good and EZ Warrior was very good, but has been injured. Cobalt Blue is racing against them over on the west coast so he is keeping top company. Jump On In and Point Ashley seem to be two of the best fillies. I'm still waiting for a few horses to start that are very, very talented.

Exceptional workers in who's opinion? The horses that work the fastest are not necessarily good horses. If you just took the top 10 fastest workers at each sale, I don't think you would get a particularly high percenatge of stakes horses. You might get 10% or 15%. The way they move is more important than the time. If you have a horse that works fast and moves great, then there is a very good chance that he will be a stakes horse.

I think the percentage of stakes horses that I personally pick is very high. At a sale with 300 horses, there will usually be about 30 or so that I really like. I would say that about 70% of those horses on my list of 30 will break their maiden in either their first or second start. I would say that about 25% will be stakes horses. If I take my top 2-3 horses horses at the top 7 sales and make a list of my top 15-20 horses for the year, I think that close to 50% end up being stakes horses.

The Green Monkey was not one of my favorite horses. I thought he looked like he could run, but he wasn't even in my top 20 at that particular sale. I see horses go for $1 million that I wouldn't buy for $100,000. A good example is that horse Barbados. They paid $3 million for that horse. I didn't think that horse could run at all. It's all a matter of opinion. But some people's opinions are much better than others. Some people have a good eye and others do not. You have to know what you are doing. Believe it or not, there are plenty of people spening big money at sales that have no ability when it comes to picking out horses. Just because a guy is a decent trainer, it doesn't mean he will be a great scout.

Even if you are great at it, you will make mistakes sometimes. I picked about 20 horses at the Barrett's sale last year and I think 12 of them became stakes horses. That's the good news. The bad news is I missed both Henny Hughes and Brother Derek. Don't get me wrong. I thought they could both run. I made big bets on both of them first-time out. I liked them enough to bet but not quite enough to buy. Brother Derek just held his head a little too high for me. I can't remember what kept Henny Hughes off my list.

With regard to that Red Bullet colt that looked so good, I would say there is at least a 60% chance that he will be a stakes horse and that is being conservative. I think the chances are probably higher than that.

I would not necessarily expect those two horses to keep those names. When horses are already named before a sale, the new owner will often times change the name.

Thanks Rupert. That was a great and educational response.