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-   -   The Value of leading at the 1st call on dirt (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=39758)

The Indomitable DrugS 11-27-2010 07:51 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Betsy (Post 728061)
On the other hand, people also get impressed with horses that close a ton of ground..........even if those races were handed to them on a silver platter (the winner of that 2 year old 7 furlong race today, for example).
Yes - horses like Ice Box and Make Music For Me get rewarded for making up insane amounts of ground in a pace collapse ... both of them performed miserably in a much slower paced race like the Belmont.

Indian Charlie 11-27-2010 07:53 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS (Post 728058)
A lot of horses at all levels have turned in career best tops with the trip of laying 2nd in a similar spot Uncle Mo was in. Basically - rating off of a pace setter - while clear of the next horse and getting no outside pressure.

If the horse relaxes - and no one comes up from 3rd to force the pace - it's pretty close to being the same thing as being loose on an uncontested lead.
True enough.

However, in the very rare occasion, you can have a Secretariat like Belmont or Akinemod like La Brea (in which she was galloping between two sprinters who were all out) in which it seems like the other horses are irrelevant.

But yeah, in the vast majority of the time, that assessment of yours is right.

hockey2315 11-27-2010 07:58 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS (Post 728066)
skewed by what?
Your stat is saying that it's more profitable to bet the lead horse in a race than bet every other horse. Well. . . duh.

hockey2315 11-27-2010 08:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by hockey2315 (Post 728074)
Your stat is saying that it's more profitable to bet the lead horse in a race than bet every other horse. Well. . . duh.
I'm not debating that it's helpful showing the value of a horse on the lead, but to compare it to the stat that incorporates every other horse not on the lead is worthless.

The Indomitable DrugS 11-27-2010 08:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by hockey2315 (Post 728074)
Your stat is saying that it's more profitable to bet the lead horse in a race than bet every other horse. Well. . . duh.
The stat simply shows the great value of leading at the first call.

I think if you polled jockeys, trainers, and other bettors - they would greatly underestimate the value of leading at the first call.

20,564 horses led by 2 to 2.75 lengths - of those 34.5% won at an impossible ROI of $3.85 ... when a horse is easily capable of establishing such an advantage ... it is a mistake not to.

hockey2315 11-27-2010 08:10 PM
I'm with you 100%. . . The first thing I do now is look for pace fig edges.

The Indomitable DrugS 11-27-2010 08:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by hockey2315 (Post 728083)
I'm with you 100%. . . The first thing I do now is look for pace fig edges.
Yeah - If I'm hunting at the cheaper tracks - the first thing I always look for is need-the-lead horses who've been getting denied the lead and fried .. but have such an extreme pace figure edge - that they're sure to be loose today. It's a great angle.

RolloTomasi 11-27-2010 08:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Betsy (Post 728068)
I'll have to look at his maiden win again, but I remember thinking that the jock had a ton of horse.

I don't think they should change his style drastically - no dropping back 5, 6, 7 lengths for him - but if he could run from about 2 or 3 lengths off the pace, I think that would be ideal. I have to watch the replay of today's race; I didn't see him gawking, but both Johnny V and Mott said he was looking around....it wasn't that obvious to me. Having a target may settle him down some more; then again, maturity may do the same.

I can't see Mott bringing this colt back in a major stakes for his seasonal debut, but of course I could be wrong. I'm sure he wants to win every race, but my point was that he considered the Remsen a big race for THAS, where he wasn't going to fool around. He can afford to fool around in a prep race, even if it means he loses.
My point is that I don't think it will take any active meddling from the connections to get this horse to "relax".

As DrugS's said a couple of times, he'll probably simply run into a horse a bit faster than him early and he'll find himself chasing (which is basically what happened in his maiden race).

As far as his 3yo comeback, Mott started First Samurai in the Fountain Of Youth and I believe Hold Me Back debuted in the Jim Beam, so it won't be a shock to see him reappear in a big race, particularly since he's now at a nw3x condition.

The Indomitable DrugS 11-27-2010 08:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RolloTomasi (Post 728087)
As far as his 3yo comeback, Mott started First Samurai in the Fountain Of Youth
Frank Brothers I think.

RolloTomasi 11-27-2010 08:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS (Post 728089)
Frank Brothers I think.
Should have caught that, cuz I almost put Hansel (Fountain Of Youth) down, too.

They both look like John Denver.

cmorioles 11-27-2010 09:04 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Betsy (Post 728061)
Hopefully ordinary racetrack goers don't read the message boards so they continue to bet these horses, lol.

On the other hand, people also get impressed with horses that close a ton of ground..........even if those races were handed to them on a silver platter (the winner of that 2 year old 7 furlong race today, for example).
Or like Zenyatta in the BC Classic...oh wait, she didn't win.

blackthroatedwind 11-27-2010 09:19 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RolloTomasi (Post 728087)
My point is that I don't think it will take any active meddling from the connections to get this horse to "relax".

As DrugS's said a couple of times, he'll probably simply run into a horse a bit faster than him early and he'll find himself chasing (which is basically what happened in his maiden race).

As far as his 3yo comeback, Mott started First Samurai in the Fountain Of Youth and I believe Hold Me Back debuted in the Jim Beam, so it won't be a shock to see him reappear in a big race, particularly since he's now at a nw3x condition.
And, First Samurai's first race back was the Hutchinson....in the slop ( I think against Keyed Entry ).

Byk still thinks that's the reason he didn't win the TC.

RolloTomasi 11-27-2010 09:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind (Post 728122)
And, First Samurai's first race back was the Hutchinson....in the slop ( I think against Keyed Entry ).

Byk still thinks that's the reason he didn't win the TC.
I really gotta start fact-checking when bringing up stuff post-2001.

The Hutcheson has been a great "derailer" of many a classic campaign. Forego probably would have won the Derby otherwise. Spectacular Bid--the Triple Crown. Swale would have shown up in the Preakness. Forty Niner would have caught Winning Colors. Rhythm would have hit the board in a prep race before the Derby. Fly So Free would have saw out the 10f at CD. Holy Bull wouldn't have caught a sloppy track he couldn't handle. Unbridled's Song's feet would have held together. Coronado's Quest wouldn't have developed a fear of crowds. Cat Thief would have been a shorter price in the BC Classic.

Thank god they've relegated it to a mere undercard race on Fountain Of Youth day.

Betsy 11-27-2010 10:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RolloTomasi (Post 728087)
My point is that I don't think it will take any active meddling from the connections to get this horse to "relax".

As DrugS's said a couple of times, he'll probably simply run into a horse a bit faster than him early and he'll find himself chasing (which is basically what happened in his maiden race).

As far as his 3yo comeback, Mott started First Samurai in the Fountain Of Youth and I believe Hold Me Back debuted in the Jim Beam, so it won't be a shock to see him reappear in a big race, particularly since he's now at a nw3x condition.
Oh, ok - I agree with you then (about the relaxing part)


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