Your mostly right anyway, I just think when a horse is crushed to odds on, he should be ready to run. I get the prep thing, just arguing my point.

Why even waste your time? You're talking to someone that thinks running in a prep is what is wrong with the sport. I guess if you started following the sport 5 years ago and had no desire to have any understanding of it prior to that it would make sense....or if you were an idiot.

He should be ready to run? For who's benefit? It's called handicapping. Bettors are competing against each other, not the horsemen. There's much more to it besides merely identifying the fastest horse. That's why they put all those trainer stats and what not along with the PPs.

Bettors are on the outside looking in, for the most part disconnected from the intentions of the horsemen (who are involved in a totally different aspect of the sport). Sometimes being aware of (or at least considering) the patterns and trends that have more to do with the human connections rather than the horse itself can be an advantage.

I've seen countless examples of horses running giant races in what connections have called "preps" going in .. only to lay an egg when supposed to step up in their main objective.

I think Blame and Fly Down both ran every bit as well as they did in the BC Classic that they did in the JCGC. I know the speed figures won't reflect it - though I've heard CJ say he thinks the 111 Classic Beyer is a little too high and I agree.

I think the difference between the two races was that Haynesfield was loose on an unpressured lead in one ... and in the other one - he got squeezed hard coming out of the gate - and was denied the lead in the BC Classic pace meltdown.

I think a better example of horse prepping is obviously Zenyatta. All of her wins this year can be called preps. And in true "prep race" fashion - her trainer all of a sudden turned up the heat in her training right before the Classic.

To me - if a race is really a prep - and you have a horse short - there should be a sign of more intense training leading into the objective race. They worked Zenyatta hard for 7fs and 6fs in her final two works - and actually ran a fresh horse at her in the middle of a tag team workout.

Harmonious before her Grade 1 win at Keeneland is another example - she had 28 published works in her career leading into her final race before the KEE win and NOT ONE single bullet work - her first two works for that KEE race are both bullets. She steps up and destroys Evening Jewel (who beat her last time) and wins by a huge margins.

The idea of the prep is to have the horse at his/her best for the target. I realize it doesn't often happen like it is planned...but IMO Stall did not have Blame fully cranked for the JCGC. I said as much after the race. Why would he if the goal was the Classic? That is what I am talking about in regards to a prep.

In regards to Harmonius you're ignoring that she was probably lengths best in the Del Mar Oaks. Evening Jewel got a much better trip and Harmonious drifted out like Swain in the stretch.

My only point was that these rankings are comical. If Blame is 2 then Z should be tied for, if not 1.

Why exactly should she be ranked ahead of him?

Because she is the better horse. I have no doubt about it. When she was winning the BCLC 3 years ago he was nothing, last year when she was winning the biggest rAce in America the BCC, he had not even won a Stakes yet. He beat her by a nose this year, congrats. The list of legit excuses for Z runs long.

Hard to fault this spot on analysis. :zz:

This is some of the worst logic ever posted on this board. That's no mean feat, considering the filth that has been strewn about this place.

And yet, it cut through all that like a hot knife through butter.

Does this mean Switch should be tied with Blame, too?

Is one of them that the stretch at CD was too short?

If there was an award for post of the week, this one would get it.

"If not 1" - wow, just wow.

Tears Jerry, tears.

Harmonius showed much more speed than ever before and absolutely obliterated Evening Jewel by an extremely lopsided margin for a turf race at Keeneland.

I don't disagree that she was better than EJ when EJ beat her in the Del Mar Oaks .. but that doesn't mean you have to pretend that she didn't improve a ton in her next race when Shirreffs started to drill on her.

Dougie..

Not that we need it, but for further evidence of Shirreffs' skill in the prep/drill department, dig up Giacomo's page through the Derby. The works leading up to and on the Sunday or Monday before Derby showed the same screw-tightening method. While the race ultimately fell in his lap, Giacomo was at least ready to run the best race he was capable of that day, and that's all you can ask of a horse.

I remember thinking he would be a good bet because of the way he looked in the Santa Anita Derby only to get off him because everyone was talking about final fraction and times.

and I was convinced Closing Argument would run 2nd.

polycrap has ruined most of the derby prep race axioms I used to hold.
maybe with Santa Anita going back to dirt, Cali horses will be relevant again.

John..

You have no excuse! If you go back to the Yahoo DT, and you were certainly a member then, you'll recall that I wrote extensively about that Santa Anita Derby and was high on the top 4 coming out of it. And the funny thing is that the horse who may have been most likely from it, General John B (Roger Stein!), got hurt and couldn't make Derby. Wilko (6th) and Buzzard's Bay (5th) both turned in solid efforts in the Derby though, further confirming the form coming out of Santa Anita...

has wilko sired a winner yet?

His progeny are yearlings. They hit the track in '11.

this can't be right; there's an obvious bias against west coast horses!! :D

Since they're done overseas I can't fault you for not knowing how these are compiled. The numbers are assigned to horses based on their best performance in a given year. If you're not familiar with Harbinger go to Youtube and watch his race at Ascot. If you watch it and then think that she should be ranked with him my hats off to you.

As far as what happened one, two and three years ago, they matter as much in those rankings as they do the HOTY vote. Blame was also a graded stakes winner before she won the Classic last year.