Derby Trail Forums - Can someone please explain this?

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- - Can someone please explain this? (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=38715)

Quote:

Originally Posted by chucklestheclown (Post 704180)

And of course that is the problem. I didn't mean it did not exist...of course it does...but where you make the split makes all the difference. It's really just nonsense for people who haven't seen the races for themselves. IMO.

You probably shouldn't have an opinion. IMO.

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315 (Post 704187)

You probably shouldn't have an opinion. IMO.

He doesn't have one.

Quote:

Originally Posted by v j stauffer (Post 704028)

The way they calculate an expected normal time is quite clever. They let a few of the most consistent horses set it. Cool thing is the horse can totally suck as long as it totally sucks in roughly the same fashion each time. You can use a bottom of the barrel maiden claimer or a stakes horse. Doesn't matter as long as they are reliable to run similar races pretty much every time. Let's say there are 80 horse running on a card. Variant makers will find a half dozen who,no matter where they finish, run basically the the same number each time. They will make a raw or Zero time for the races those horses run.They don't have to win. In fact it's better that they don't since horses that win usualy run quite a bit faster than previous races. Ok. so now you've calculated your raw time. Adjust it for ground lost and wind. All six horses now can be assigned a raw speed figure number. If all six ran about three lengths faster than their norm you have a plus 3 track. 6 lengths slower a minus 6 track. Once you know you now have a accurate variant you can make a very good number for everyone who ran that day. A good variant is far and away the most important part of making speed figure numbers. Here's an example why. Me and Coach Pants are gonna race 100 yards at the beach for DT bragging rights. We line up and "WE'RE OFF" We fly our 100 yards in 10 seconds flat. ( in our dreams) and finish in a dead heat. But! Upon further review. I ran on the hard packed sand right next to the water. While Pants ran on the loose cuppy sand right next to the boardwalk. Even though we finished right together in the photo and our time was the same Pants should get the bragging rights because he will have run a much better race getting a faster figure. Reverse our lanes and he wins by many. Hope that helps.

Dunbar and well all of you guys...

I really appreciate your answers, your insight, your help and reading all of this together really does make sense. I apprexiate that none of you talked down to me!

Vic...

I specifically said that it might make sense if someone explained "what this means and why and here's an example" and so I really do need to thank you for doing just that. I'm not saying you talked down to me and the others didn't but you did what i asked for and made it easy to understand and your examples were really good (and pretty funny). :tro:

Thanks.

Quote:

Originally Posted by v j stauffer (Post 704028)

The way they calculate an expected normal time is quite clever. They let a few of the most consistent horses set it. Cool thing is the horse can totally suck as long as it totally sucks in roughly the same fashion each time. You can use a bottom of the barrel maiden claimer or a stakes horse. Doesn't matter as long as they are reliable to run similar races pretty much every time. Let's say there are 80 horse running on a card. Variant makers will find a half dozen who,no matter where they finish, run basically the the same number each time. They will make a raw or Zero time for the races those horses run.They don't have to win. In fact it's better that they don't since horses that win usualy run quite a bit faster than previous races. Ok. so now you've calculated your raw time. Adjust it for ground lost and wind. All six horses now can be assigned a raw speed figure number. If all six ran about three lengths faster than their norm you have a plus 3 track. 6 lengths slower a minus 6 track. Once you know you now have a accurate variant you can make a very good number for everyone who ran that day. A good variant is far and away the most important part of making speed figure numbers. Here's an example why. Me and Coach Pants are gonna race 100 yards at the beach for DT bragging rights. We line up and "WE'RE OFF" We fly our 100 yards in 10 seconds flat. ( in our dreams) and finish in a dead heat. But! Upon further review. I ran on the hard packed sand right next to the water. While Pants ran on the loose cuppy sand right next to the boardwalk. Even though we finished right together in the photo and our time was the same Pants should get the bragging rights because he will have run a much better race getting a faster figure. Reverse our lanes and he wins by many. Hope that helps.

(emphasis added)

This makes sense for Thoro-graph and similar speed figures which take trip factors into account. But what about Beyer Speed Figures?

The Beyer figs themselves are supposed to be independent of trip factors. I reread the 1st chapter of "Beyer On Speed" to see if trip factors for individual horses were used to create the variant, but I didn't see any mention of it.

Beyer describes two methods he uses to get figs: (1) Compare the winning times for today's races with the historical average winning times for that level race at that track, then average the differences (after adjusting for race length) for all races on that day on that surface, and (2) project the numbers from each horse in the race based on the horse's previous numbers, then average those differences for all races on the same surface.

--Dunbar

A little off topic, but is there something wrong with my connection or was chuckles sent to the gulag? I no longer see any of his posts. The last words of his I can see in this thread are "may not exist," which, if it's the latter situation, I find somewhat ironic.

I hope you're right.

Here it is:

You're married to a fine woman and it's the 3rd of the month. 16 days later you're married to the same woman, but she's changed....alot....and it ain't pretty. Two weeks later she's a doll.

Quote:

Originally Posted by ShadowRoll (Post 704753)

Yes. he apparently had a take that sucked on a waaay too regular of bases... RIP {{{not missed}}} /Rome

Quote:

Originally Posted by ShadowRoll (Post 704753)

So would I.
P.S.:I thought Jewish people didn't like gulags. Was that supposed to be funny?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis (Post 704770)

Yes. he apparently had a take that sucked on a waaay too regular of bases... RIP {{{not missed}}} /Rome

Sorry...I do not get this at all. Is it a meth thing?