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-   -   7/3-4 (MTH): United Nations (G1), Salvator (G3); Jersey Shore (G3) (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=36901)

the_fat_man 07-03-2010 12:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985 (Post 664799)
Ughh, what if he is just not that good in the first place? I dont like him today, he can prove me wrong, Im leaning everything on Chinchon and SS.
SS has to show me that he can run well against good horses. TTP has already shown that. The two figure to pretty much get the same trip today. Your position is that it makes more sense to bet the longer of the two. While this might work in statistics and has specific application in horse racing, it doesn't work that well, IMO, in this particular case. Here, I'll take shorter odds on what I consider to be the better horse rather than stab with a horse of lesser ability just because he'll be longer odds. In other words, SS is NOT winning this race. Too many other horses have to NOT RUN for him to win.

RockHardTen1985 07-03-2010 12:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by the_fat_man (Post 664805)
SS has to show me that he can run well against good horses. TTP has already shown that. The two figure to pretty much get the same trip today. Your position is that it makes more sense to bet the longer of the two. While this might work in statistics and has specific application in horse racing, it doesn't work that well, IMO, in this particular case. Here, I'll take shorter odds on what I consider to be the better horse rather than stab with a horse of lesser ability just because he'll be longer odds. In other words, SS is NOT winning this race. Too many other horses have to NOT RUN for him to win.
Good Luck Fats, I did not put much into it, I played the 2 pick 3's I posted and I used Chinchon equally.

Hoist Her Flag 07-03-2010 12:33 PM
replay
 
I just found a replay of the 2010 Chantilly race (the last race for Chinchon) he somehow was blocked the entire length of the stretch in a 5 horse field. I played him last year in the Manhatten and he wasn't good enough that day. Looks tough in this spot. passing if under 7/2.

RockHardTen1985 07-03-2010 12:34 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoist Her Flag (Post 664808)
I just found a replay of the 2010 Chantilly race (the last race for Chinchon) he somehow was blocked the entire length of the stretch in a 5 horse field. I played him last year in the Manhatten and he wasn't good enough that day. Looks tough in this spot. passing if under 7/2.
I dont really want Winchester and hoping 1 of the speeds can rate and get first jump, Chinchon appears to be the logical one, as far as making the last run.

the_fat_man 07-03-2010 12:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985 (Post 664807)
Good Luck Fats, I did not put much into it, I played the 2 pick 3's I posted and I used Chinchon equally.
You too.

I'll bet to win if I get morning line or >.

kgar311 07-03-2010 12:52 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan07 (Post 663891)
SUNDAY 9th (4:50) Jersey Shore S. (G3)

6 Furlongs | Open | 3 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $200,000

1 Out of Respect Lopez P 119 L
2 Discreetly Mine Velazquez J R 123 L
3 Partyallnightlong Marquez C H Jr 119 L
4 Christine Daae Bravo J 117 L
5 Cool Bullet Hernandez B J Jr 119 L
6 Safe Trip Lezcano J 117 L
Is the "Situation" and Snookie prsenting the trophy for this race?

RockHardTen1985 07-03-2010 05:16 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by the_fat_man (Post 664810)
You too.

I'll be to win if I get morning line or >.
Luck sucks Fats, this one hurt...and I normally dont play tris

2010-07-03 05:27:10 PM Monmouth Park Race 10 $10 TF on 4,7,8 with 4,7,8 with 4,7,8 (ticket:34898-41252) $60.00

Sightseek 07-04-2010 04:06 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RolloTomasi (Post 664790)
I'll believe it when I see it. He got dusted in the Riva Ridge just as he has in every other race of his aside from the pedestrian stroll called the Risen Star. To his detriment, he seems to have only one way of going and given what's lined up on either side of him (not to mention the outside horse), it looks to be more of the same up front today.

If there is one thing to say about him its that, ignoring the Derby, he never completely caves in, which probably accounts for his status as a quality bridesmaid.

Maybe the class drop will be the difference today, with the other pace rivals all making their graded stakes debuts. Personally, I wonder what he would have done in the Pegasus or the Long Branch or both.
Starting to look more like a sprinter to you?

RolloTomasi 07-04-2010 04:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sightseek (Post 665101)
Starting to look more like a sprinter to you?
Certainly, now that he finally showed the ability to rate. As was mentioned to me by multiple people, I wasn't critical enough of Javier Castellano's ride in the Woody Stephens. Since it was the second time in his career he failed to settle off a horse as fast as Eightyfiveinafifty, I won't beat myself up for thinking the horse only had one way of running.

Kasept 07-06-2010 05:48 AM
Eddie Castro takes his share of criticism, mostly deserved, but check out his good effort yesterday in the Mr. Prospector. Had to use Roaring Lion at precisely the right time to gather a loose on the lead Unwritten, and had just enough left after doing that dirty work to hold off the late-charging Wildcat Brief.


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