Kip Deville totally changes the complexion of the race. . .

can we throw Shake the Bank in as another rabbit????

froom Bloodhorse:

While Albertrani said little has changed with Bernardini in the last few months, that is not the case with Bluegrass Cat.

"Physically, he's a stronger horse than he was in the Derby and Belmont," Pletcher said. "He's carrying more weight and his energy level has been unbelievable since the Haskell. I'm hoping that's a positive sign that he's bounced out of the Haskell well and 20 days is enough recuperation time."

Barbaro gained like a hundred pounds or so before the Derby. Looks like BGC might just be a late bloomer.

He has no effect on the race. None at all.

So are you saying that pace has nothing to do with the outcome of a race?

no offense guys and gals but this is the premire race at Toga right and it's a 7horse field?

Contested pace does. Not a cheap horse with no chance that is just going to go out there winging. If u were on one of the contenders, would u feel the need to go out there with him or just run your race and do what u normally do? No matter what the pace, the race is going to run between 2:01 and 2:03 more than likely. So why push your horse to run a 45 half just to keep up with a horse that's got no shot? If Kip was a horse that could be a threat to steal it, that would be different. But he's not so any trainer or jockey with any sense will know not to change their strategy because of him.

I think that's mostly due to all the injuries this years three year olds have suffered-

Barbaro, Jazil, Steppenwolfer, Sweetnorthernsaint (maybe?), Brother Derek, and Lawyer Ron were all considered contenders in the TC races and aren't currently racing.

Plus Bernardini and BGC have probably scared off most other challengers.

Bernardini's never really had to follow a horse like Kip before to my knowledge or a pace like the one there could be on Saturday. How do you know how he will react?

I'm so tired of field size complaints. There are a ton of races this time of year for 3YO's, there always are. How many horses ran in last year's Travers? I'd bet dollars to doughnuts it wasn't many more than seven.

Last year's Travers field. Man, only seven horses, this race must have blown:


PP. HORSE TRAINER JOCKEY WGT.
1. Bellamy Road Nick Zito Javier Castellano 126
2. Andromeda's Hero Nick Zito Corey Nakatani 126
3. Chekhov Patrick Biancone Gary Stevens 126
4. Roman Ruler Bob Baffert Jerry Bailey 126
5. Don't Get Mad Ron Ellis Edgar Prado 126
6. Reverberate Sal Russo Jose Santos 126
7. Flower Alley Todd Pletcher John Velazquez 126

Incidentally, where the heck has Don't Get Mad been?

Again though, u are assuming that Bernardini will have to change the way he normally runs because of the presence of Kip. If the plan for Bernardini Saturday is to run 47 and 1:11, why would he have to change that just because Kip is out there going 45 and 1:09? What I'm saying is that the pace of the race hasn't changed for the contenders. They can still run the race they were planning on running. The only difference now is that the earlier fractions will be faster but as long as the others just run their normal race, the final fractions will fall right in line with where the race would have gone had Kip not been in there. It was going to go in the 2:01-2:03 range with or without Kip so u run accordingly. It's not like a horse like Lion Heart was. He was a horse that u knew if u let him get away with soft fractions and an easy lead, he could steal it. In that case, u had to change your strategy to prevent that from happening. Not so with Kip. He's no threat to steal anything.

If you think this, you don't understand horses. Just my two cents.

Couldnt agree more King and I question why he is in here. Does the trainer or owner have some sort of deal going with Pletcher? I dont get it at all but wouldnt put anything past these guys.

Don't Get Mad
 

Don't Get Mad lost his first race this year in an allowance at Churchill a month or two back. Buddy Gil was also in there and Greater Good won the race. I've seen worse Grade 3 fields. I'm not sure if he's raced since.

Bluegrass Cat has the advantage if he is in front for the very same reason as we dont know if Bernardini has heart or the desire to pass a stuborn horse. BC has some heart and will be tough to pass (even for Bernardini). If Bernardini is in front, I think he is just too quick and more taltented that BC. For Bernardini, it isnt a question of heart because I doubt BC could catch him and make him fight. Now, if BC is in front, does Bernardini have the desire to go on by a stubborn horse. This is why BC has got to be in front of Bernardini.

I dont complain about field size, I complain about quality. Now the 2006 Travers has quality in it and I am very happy with the field.

Wasn't talking about you, was talking about the comment that the premier race at Toga was a seven horse field.

King....I sort of agree with you....then again I sort of don't. Cheap lone speed can often be dangerous. If you let a horse get out there too far, your horse may get discouraged. I agree the KD has no shot in this race, but like it or not, horses are going to have to pass him. I still think the time will be between 2:01 and 2:03 like you mentioned. KD is not going to get the distance even if the fractions were slow. In my mind he is no threat. I want to see this horse in some mile races on the turf