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-   -   Summer Bird pointed for The BC (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=31499)

Antitrust32 09-02-2009 10:20 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CSC
I agree on one point, Jess Jackson will not risk RA's reputation unless a horse can threaten her for HOY. Whether one agrees with the BC format or not, it was designed for determining year end honors and historically more times than not it has.

this is freaking crazy? Not risk her reputation? he's only run her in the toughest spots possible. my lord.

CSC 09-02-2009 10:31 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Antitrust32
:rolleyes:

IF and its not a mortal lock IMO.. Rachel wins the Woodward there is absolutely no chance for any horse to win HOY except her. And she's already drowned Summer Bird.

SB could win the Super Derby, JCGC, Goodwood, BCClassic and the Clark and he still wouldnt get HOY if she wins the Woodward.

Granted SB is a huge bet against in the classic but I would give him a shot in the JCGC. He's the frontrunner for 3yo Colt award but there's only one horse even in the running for HOY at this point.
For argument's sake:

Significant accomplishments

RA wins:
K. Oaks
Preakness
Haskell

SB:
Belmont win
Haskell placed.
Travers win

With a possible 2 races to go for each is RA's lead really that secure? Objectively speaking...

BTW I didn't include the Mother Goose, I agree she is the top filly for The Eclipse award and she only faced a 3 horse field, however impressive her beyer was. I am concentrating on the HOY discussion part of it.

Revidere 09-02-2009 10:44 AM
It's a foregone conclusion that Summer Bird will beat Zenyatta in California. His beyers are higher.

As for Rachel; if she wins the Woodward, it looks like she's done for the year.

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...after-woodward

CSC 09-02-2009 10:47 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by tector
Like they have a choice. Forget about HOY--they could lose could 3YO honors if MTB wins the Classic (seems doubtful right now, but let's see a race first), or if QR wins it after winning his next race. People will, rightly, forgive QR's rush-job Travers very quickly if he moves forward. There is also the matter of a huge purse to be had. In short, it is a freaking business. And their decision is a business decision.

And right now I'd take IP over any 3YO colt, too. Quit getting a boner over this group. It may be the case that the three best dirt horses in the US, routing at least, are all female (can't be really say with certainty about Zenyatta, since her lone dirt appearance was 1.5 years ago). That would be pretty cool.
If MTB wins another race on dirt/poly in 09 I'll fall off my chair...I like the horse(after his derby win I was one of the first to say it was not a fluke) but it seems his supporter(s) fail to see he has had more excuses than just about any other horse running today. Which speaks to his need to have many uncontrollable factors to go his way before he can succeed. Does anyone want to bet an underlaid former derby winner? I can think of only one person here who would...

SniperSB23 09-02-2009 12:29 PM
Why are we discussing Summer Bird winning the BC Classic? He is, quite simply, too slow to possibly beat the European horses that will come over on the synthetic. Da Tara is more likely to win the Woodward than Summer Bird is to win the BC Classic.

Antitrust32 09-02-2009 12:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CSC
For argument's sake:

Significant accomplishments

RA wins:
K. Oaks
Preakness
Haskell

SB:
Belmont win
Haskell placed.
Travers win

With a possible 2 races to go for each is RA's lead really that secure? Objectively speaking...

BTW I didn't include the Mother Goose, I agree she is the top filly for The Eclipse award and she only faced a 3 horse field, however impressive her beyer was. I am concentrating on the HOY discussion part of it.

you just cant throw out her other wins and the margin of victory and the final times which have been spectacular except for the Preakness.. tho it was still okay.

its not even close at this point. like not at all. If voting happened today she'd get every single vote for HOY unless someone had a real crazy agenda. The only way it becomes close is if Rachel loses TWO or more races and Summer bird wins the JCGC and the BC Classic... which he will not win.

Indian Charlie 09-02-2009 12:39 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CSC
As I keep reminding people that is only one race, many great horses have been "blasted" once only to redeem themselves later on. Frankly it is a tiresome argument to constantly refer to Rachel Alexandra not running in the Breeders Cup. If she shows up at Belmont for the JCGC, I suspect I will start to see the light.

One thing we do know, the connections of RA are sporting and not scared to showcase their horse anywhere, except for a surface that figures to put her at a huge disadvantage.

FTFY!

Indian Charlie 09-02-2009 12:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CSC
I agree on one point, the Moss's will not risk Zenyatta's reputation unless God threatens her for HOY. Whether one agrees with the Moss's or not, they are pussies..
I FTFY as well!

CSC 09-02-2009 12:47 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Indian Charlie
I FTFY as well!
I must be slow with the new terminology what is FTFY?

Indian Charlie 09-02-2009 12:48 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CSC
I must be slow with the new terminology what is FTFY?
Yeah, no problem. First time someone did the FTFY on me, I thought it was something like "Fugg T---, Fugg You"

It really means though Fixed That For You.

Coach Pants 09-02-2009 12:51 PM
fixed that for you.

Buffalo Wild Wings is introducing a new wings sauce called Zenyatta. It starts off bland but finishes with a zesty kick that will make your taste buds explode.

Sightseek 09-02-2009 12:58 PM
Their Rachel sauce kicks your ass from start to finish.

SundayStar 09-02-2009 01:16 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sightseek
Their Rachel sauce kicks your ass from start to finish.
nice

Cannon Shell 09-02-2009 01:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Antitrust32
you just cant throw out her other wins and the margin of victory and the final times which have been spectacular except for the Preakness.. tho it was still okay.

its not even close at this point. like not at all. If voting happened today she'd get every single vote for HOY unless someone had a real crazy agenda. The only way it becomes close is if Rachel loses TWO or more races and Summer bird wins the JCGC and the BC Classic... which he will not win.
If Rachel is less than overwhelming in the Woodward, Summer Bird whips the same bunch in the Gold Cup and wins the classic I think he will have a legit chance at HOY. If RA were to lose the Woodward and SB was to win out I dont think it would even be a contest.

Antitrust32 09-02-2009 01:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cannon Shell
If Rachel is less than overwhelming in the Woodward, Summer Bird whips the same bunch in the Gold Cup and wins the classic I think he will have a legit chance at HOY. If RA were to lose the Woodward and SB was to win out I dont think it would even be a contest.

???

She can win by a nose and the vote is secured. It already is IMO even if she loses.


this is all a moot point as a Euro will be winning our "dirt" classic for the second year. Shoot they can send a Grade 2 type horse over an win the classic.

tector 09-02-2009 01:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Antitrust32
???

She can win by a nose and the vote is secured. It already is IMO even if she loses.


this is all a moot point as a Euro will be winning our "dirt" classic for the second year. Shoot they can send a Grade 2 type horse over an win the classic.
What's the matter with you--aren't consumed with jealousy, errr, hatred of Jess Jackson like all REAL posters here?

CSC 09-02-2009 02:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cannon Shell
If Rachel is less than overwhelming in the Woodward, Summer Bird whips the same bunch in the Gold Cup and wins the classic I think he will have a legit chance at HOY. If RA were to lose the Woodward and SB was to win out I dont think it would even be a contest.
The thing is regardless of how much we want to make of this 3 yr old filly vs older males, this isn't an overwhelming bunch of horses. Unless she wins in spectacular fashion I don't see the huge significance, it's not like Goldikova winning the Arc when she beat the best field of European horses over there, she would be beating a group of horses that are no better than tier 2 horses over here. I understand the historical significance but I really don't understand the glam factor the public is making of this. So she beats Macho or Pass The Point. Nice but awe inspiring no.

Antitrust32 09-02-2009 02:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by tector
What's the matter with you--aren't consumed with jealousy, errr, hatred of Jess Jackson like all REAL posters here?

Jess Jackson is the only super rich man left with any courage these days.

brianwspencer 09-02-2009 02:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CSC
So she beats Macho or Pass The Point. Nice but awe inspiring no.
I mean, I get what your point is, even though I vehemently disagree -- but you're definitely right here...not every race can be filled with quality foes like Dunkirk and Hold Me Back, right?

Gander 09-02-2009 02:19 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by brianwspencer
I mean, I get what your point is, even though I vehemently disagree -- but you're definitely right here...not every race can be filled with quality foes like Dunkirk and Hold Me Back, right?
:tro: :D


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