I agree on decent, decent for a grade 1 winning three year old

a "good" horse never loses the belmont or WV race though with bad horses collapsing in front of him.

I don't care if Smith move too early or not. The fact is there was plenty of pace to run at and he couldn't get past Big Drama who was staggering home in 14.5.

Who collapsed in front of him in the Belmont? That race (with that ride) cannot be picked out as one that proves MTB is not a good horse.

NT

ok lets take the borderline derby at sunland (or whatever it was called)

Usually when a horse needs a perfect trip, a perfectly timed ride, the perfect pace scenario, the perfect track...the perfect stars alignment, the perfect whatever....turns out to be not so perfect afterall. He's an okay to good horse, we determined that months ago his derby was not a fluke, actually I determined that the night after the derby but some are quicker than others....usually good horses are one's that overcome imperfect pace and trip scenarios, the fact that he can't really speaks volumes of his true abilty.

Correct, but i am betting on the stars aligning for this horse. I think they get it right here

maybe so, good luck....but arnt there much better investments at 5/1 with a lot less "aligning" needed?

I with you on this. I just have this feeling about MTB in this race with or without RA.

Honestly I really dont think the stars have to align, but if they did that would be great. I think the work yesterday showed alot. He took to the surface tremendously. Hes put on some weight and looks extremely healthy and seems to be feeling pretty damn good too! Dont underestimate the power of Saratoga Racecourse lol. Horse for the course has never rang more true than at Saratoga. Some horses win there and dont win again until the following year when they come back. The ease he worked that bullet sold me on this horse for the Travers.

For what it's worth I think he will like Saratoga more than Mountaineer, I'm just not sure he will be a fair price but who knows we've seen some strange prices at the Spa these 1st 2 weeks, however I won't be banging the door down to bet him. Goodluck if you you have a strong opinion about him.

Right and I say all this thinking I will be getting between 3 1/2 to 5-1. anything around 2-1 to 3-1 ill be spreading my bets around a little bit more. 5-1 everything goes on MTB

i usually put a line through good horses that race at tracks like sunland and especially mountaineer. i do it for keenland POLY now too since it doesn't equate to true dirt form. have you ever seen how mountaineer is configured? they would of been better off at monmouth. that horse had to move early, speed wins everthing at that strip! in my opinion MTB has had two bad rides in a row by two questionable jockeys. borel is great at CD, in ny (other major meets)hes never been much. smith probably felt like he had to be up there, to have any chance! that horse is good. who else came within a closing length of rachel? he needs the proper ride, hes a HARD horse to ride. you get one move at the right time or hes just a board hitter. any one that does not think this horse is good, is nuts. times at that track mean NOTHING. THE ONLY TIME THE TIME MATTERS FOR MTB IS THE FINAL QUARTER IF HES RESERVED FIRST MILE AND AN EIGHTH. HE'LL NEVER WIN RUSHING UP THERE EARLY ON!

So who are the better investments??

Next time I handicap I will give you a couple, is that fair enough?

Yup.

You're an ENIGMA. If the MNR trip is so obviously premature, how could you also not notice the premature move in the BEL?

I think the horse didn't handle the track last race. He's climbing and skipping (switching leads) in the run to the 1st turn like I've never seen him do before (I actually watched all his WO races.)

Give this horse Flatbold's run in the Jim Dandy and see what happens.

QR tackles 1 1/4 for the 1st time and Kensei is looking for another speed favoring setup. Odds of the Jim Dandy AND the Travers going 1-2 (or 2-1) around the track are good, aren't they? :rolleyes:



Thanks to DrugS for pointing out that its the horse (not the jocks) making all those premature moves.

Maybe Im wrong but reading Picking winners 101... It says "" At Saratoga, allways go with the ""Hat"" angle.... Even if your picking winners in the clubhouse !!!!! :D

i didn't like the way he looked in the WVD. Obviously he is very small, but he usually looks ok in the stretch and gallop out, but he appeared to decline physically there.

He is a game little horse and he posses a long drive. He got one of the best derby trips of all time, probably the best. Not only the ground saving trip, but his positioning.
Preakness was a good race, he had a good setup with the chasers collapsing, Rachel was just better although he shortened the margin close to the wire. Belmont he was arguably best, at least there is a fair chunk of probability that he was best. WVD- i just didn't like the way he looked.

Kensai has a lot of horse, and Asmussen is "hot". One of Jackson's favorite horses. We haven't seen his depth since the time he was moved up, it's possible that with a tough race he could crumble or Prado could waste too much horse. If Quality Road sets a conservative pace, that helps Kensei. If someone else goes or if Quality Road gets brave and looms a winning threat entering the stretch - then it could help the closers

He looked pretty bad on the main this morning....