Three of the last four winners have won from well off the pace. It all depends on if there's any speed, but Mnr is not as notoriously speed-favoring as Monmouth.

The purse is gigantic and the field is likely to be soft. That goes into the decision just as much as whether it fits his style.

NT

yes, its usually a weaker than the Haskell.

I guess it makes sense, the owners have a gelding and so its a money grab type move, and lets face it they are not Sheiks.

I actually have seen numbers that show Mntr as the 3rd most speed biased track in the country. I dont play there enough to know but trust where I got the numbers. Maybe different at night than day?

The big problem which probably makes Mountaineer seem to be such a speed biased track is the regularity with which horses drop in class who have speed. You see shippers from major tracks usually ship in dropping in class show up for Maiden 15K, Maiden 10K, and Maiden 5K there that are simply faster than the horses that are currently running for those tags at Mountaineer. You also see examples of horses since Mountaineer has many different class levels of 5K claimers such as 5K NW2L, 5K NW3L, 5K, NW4L, 5K NW1Y, 5K NW2Y, 5K NW3Y, 5K Open with a progression to Starter 5K Races, horses that are dropping in class from any of those levels to the next level down or anything below that have any pace at all are usually faster than their pace rivals and outpace them and make the track appear to be speed biased.

solid, that makes some sense, the numbers I have seen to not take the issues you raised.

Off the top of my head, Mane Minister certainly fits the bill...there's one.

Here's the list I think the last 20 or so years....

Mine That Bird
Curlin
Afleet Alex
Smarty Jones
Funny Cide
Charismatic
Real Quiet
Victory Gallop
Silver Charm
Free House
Thunder Gulch
Go For Gin
Mane Minister
Sunday Silence
Easy Goer
Risen Star

Of those, I think Mane Minister is the only one you could for certain say is worse than MTB. Maybe Go For Gin?? But at this point through the Belmont, I don't think you can claim that one even. So your point is well taken...the last 21 years of those placing in all 3 TC races, I think you can find only 1 worse than MTB to this point.

thats debatable, but yea I guess they are on the same level in my mind.

You can't be serious. You hate MTB that much!!

12-3-0-5 ?? No, he's better than Mane Minister...not debatable.

It's too early to assume how good or not MTB is...let him finish out the year at least before comparing him to past horses who finished in the money in all 3 TC events

i don't know losing by a length and 1/2 when mike smith was blocked early. this horse is in everyones league and proved it by running in the money in all three races. i actually think he wins that race at 1 1/4 miles. the horses that are NOT in her league are the chumps they set her up against and she beats by 20! the three year old males are going to get bigger and better, some of the contenders have been racing for just a few months. shes out of her league with the fillies but i would not jump to any conclusions just yet, theres plenty of racing left this summer. curlin could not beat rags to riches in june, in october no one could touch him ! if MTB stays healthy along with Summer bird and some of the others this thing is far from being decided.

I was talking about natural talent, of course he has accomplished more by winning the derby.

Mane Minister was a lot like Mine That Bird in that he tweaked his running style for the Ky Derby.

MM set a solid pace in the Santa Anita Derby and faded out of the money - and next out rallied to finish 3rd at about 100/1 odds in the KY Derby.

Trivia, the horse who beat Mane Minister in his debut sired both parts of a post time favored entry in the Kentucky Derby .. name him.

General Meeting.

NT

Correct.

I just had to repeat that.:tro:

I'll say this much we may have not seen the best from Summer Bird, I actually thought he could have won by more if he were perfectly handled in the Belmont. In my opinion he will prove to be a better horse than Mine That Bird if he stays healthy.

You might be right that we haven't seen the best from him, but didn't he get a perfect trip in the Belmont?

Absolutely, positively yes.

NT

The trip Kent got winning the Suburban with Dry Martini reminded me in an abstract way of his win on Summer Bird in the Belmont. The meltdown in the former, was a lot easier to predict (at least for me), than the new role of pacesetter, and premature MTB, that we saw in the later...

I agree with what you're saying but note that Prado rode Dry Martini, and given Prado's patient style, the race played to his strengths.

NT

oops
 

Well, he was channeling Desormeaux. :o