Derby Trail Forums - nyra / gate crew

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gales0678

06-15-2009 11:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

I'm going to try to make this point for the last time.

There are things we can control in the game, and others that we can't. The latter far outnumber the former. That's why the game is so difficult to beat. You just can't cover yourself when (seemingly) low probability events occur. However, to focus on the things that are beyond our control is to lose focus on what's important. When focus is shifted to what we can control, our decisions/opinions, and when we **** up we have no one to blame but ourselves, it quickly becomes apparent that we underestimated how difficult the game really is. And, when we also realize that the game itself is actually fair, the naivete of our initial perspective becomes apparent.

Repeat after me:

1) you can pick the 'right' horse and lose
2) you can pick the 'wrong' horse and win
3) you can pick the 'right' horse and win
4) you can pick the 'wrong' horse and lose

to only expect 3 and 4 to happen is to really miss the point

fat at then end of the day a lot of what you posted is correct , but , as you yourself knows everyone at the end of the day still has to "eat"

randallscott35

06-15-2009 11:48 AM

Let me say something else, you actually have a better argument in weather situations where they move a race to the maintrack late. That is a better argument for a conso than a gate scratch...**** happens.

blackthroatedwind

06-15-2009 11:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35

In NY, if a race is moved from turf to dirt after the first leg of a Pick-6 or Pick-4 has been run, the race becomes an " all " for the purpose of that bet.

randallscott35

06-15-2009 12:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

In NY, if a race is moved from turf to dirt after the first leg of a Pick-6 or Pick-4 has been run, the race becomes an " all " for the purpose of that bet.

I could be wrong but that was not always the case. I'm almost sure years ago I was moved in a pick four to the fave....Glad that is now the case.

blackthroatedwind

06-15-2009 12:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35

I could be wrong but that was not always the case. I'm almost sure years ago I was moved in a pick four to the fave....Glad that is now the case.

It was changed sometime in the last three or four years.

randallscott35

06-15-2009 12:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

It was changed sometime in the last three or four years.

K, thanks that makes sense, I remember this at Toga maybe 5 or 6 years ago after a rainstorm therefore the timeline seems right....They did the right thing with that change.

blackthroatedwind

06-15-2009 12:12 PM

I also believe four races have to be " run " for the Pick-6 to be an official bet. Thus, if three races came off the turf after the bet commenced, it would be a refunded bet. I think that's the case but will have to check.

tiggerv

06-15-2009 12:15 PM

NYRA easily has the best rules around non-starters. I quit playing P4s in Florida last year because the daily Gulfstream thunderstorm would move races off the turf late in the card and butcher P4 tickets. Florida also has the dumb rule that gate scratches in the first leg get moved to post time favorite instead of a refund.

Scav	06-15-2009 12:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

It was changed sometime in the last three or four years.

Illinois has this rule also but they include P3's, I don't know of any other circuits that have it besides NY and IL.

Linny

06-15-2009 01:43 PM

Remember that these rules must be blessed by the Racing and Wagering Board in NY so NYRA may propose changes that help the bettor but if they don't get approval they don't fly.

golfer

06-15-2009 02:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Now that we've cleared that up, can you possibly explain (real question, not smart-ass remark) the extreme bias we saw yesterday? Was the track maintained in a certain way to cause the rail to be so good, and everywhere else so bad?

It made handicapping and wagering on yesterday's races less enjoyable.

blackthroatedwind

06-15-2009 02:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by golfer

I imagine trying to maintain a track after 37 consecutive days of rain might have had something to do with it.

The track maintenance crew does an amazing job. Sh it happens.

tigerfan

06-15-2009 02:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Repeat after me:

1) you can pick the 'right' horse and lose
2) you can pick the 'wrong' horse and win
3) you can pick the 'right' horse and win
4) you can pick the 'wrong' horse and lose

to only expect 3 and 4 to happen is to really miss the point

As someone relatively new to this game, it appears to me that when situations 2, 3 & 4 occur, it stays in my memory for about 2 seconds. However, when situation 1 occurs, it tends to wear on the mind for awhile. I am quickly learning to just let it go.
I had the 7 horse in both the P4 and a win bet. I let it go soon after the race because I realized that if I was the beneficiary of that situation I would have not thought much about it the next day. So why dwell on it when it pinches you? Down the road it will go the other way.
Just my newbie opinion.

In fact, I remember a line from the first Beyer book I read about a year or so ago. Not an exact quote but something to the extent of....you won't remember your big scores but your bad beats will haunt you forever.

pointman

06-15-2009 03:08 PM

It seems to me that lately when the track is drying out after periods of rain, i.e. going from good to fast, it becomes an inside speed favoring track as it did on Belmont day and yesterday. I am sure that Andy is in a much better position to confirm my speculation as I rarely get to watch races during the week and am judging from the weekend days I have been able to watch.

As I write this, I am looking outside my office window not far from Belmont and as unbelievable as it may seem, it looks like it is about to pour again!

philcski

06-16-2009 08:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

I'm going to try to make this point for the last time.

There are things we can control in the game, and others that we can't. The latter far outnumber the former. That's why the game is so difficult to beat. You just can't cover yourself when (seemingly) low probability events occur. However, to focus on the things that are beyond our control is to lose focus on what's important. When focus is shifted to what we can control, our decisions/opinions, and when we **** up we have no one to blame but ourselves, it quickly becomes apparent that we underestimated how difficult the game really is. And, when we also realize that the game itself is actually fair, the naivete of our initial perspective becomes apparent.

Repeat after me:

1) you can pick the 'right' horse and lose
2) you can pick the 'wrong' horse and win
3) you can pick the 'right' horse and win
4) you can pick the 'wrong' horse and lose

to only expect 3 and 4 to happen is to really miss the point

:tro:
Excellent post.

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