Fat Man is really going to scold u for that one

Do you really think that? Summer Bird, while he inconsequentially steadied a couple of times on the backstretch, received an outstanding ride and had a perfect trip.

Look at Fat Man's chart and you can see what the winning move was vis-a-vis the earlier moves that were made. Looking at it from a race flow perspective, which is a crucial part of trip handicapping, it is quite clear that this race was set up for Summer Bird. All he had to be able to do was finish and considering how much ground he had saved while galloping on the rail, he was packing quite a wallop in the stretch.

NT

I watched the race 3 times last night each from the perspective of being on MTB, Dunkirk, and Summer Bird to be as objective as possible I don't know if anyone here has taken the time to be that objective. Honestly if we all get past this trip stuff of who got the best trip and especially the slightly premature move by Borel, the difference in the rides is very miniscule. Raw numbers aside, Dunkirk was comfortable riding the golden rail as the speed, MTB was not rushed up but floated up by Borel, Durkin's call is hyperbole..mad rush my ash...it was only that when he got side by side with the leaders he asked him, the majority of the time a horse making that move at Belmont the horse wins. Summer Bird had a good trip, despite the obvious steady/checks down the backside, he could have been closer but he did make up alot of ground on the worst part of the track. Other than that, all the rides had good aspects to them and all them had some negative aspects to them. The best horse won, I think most educated horseplayers will agree the result was a true one whether MTB waited a little longer before he made his move or not.

If he really is the Fatman, I would be more scared if he sat on me. :rolleyes:

The thing is, we're discussing the trips and the rides go hand-in-hand. We can't discuss the trips if we take out or marginalize the premature move of Borel, you can't rationally analyze the trip.

I also don't really buy into the argument about how Summer Bird made up ground on the worst part of the track. The race that really screamed bias on Saturday was the Acorn but that result, in my opinion, had more to do with GGG getting a clear lead in a race that lacked any good horses. The favorite was a perfect trip winner in each of her graded stakes efforts and was returning from an unnecessarily long and injury-induced layoff.

To sum it up, do I think the best horse at 12 furlongs, a distance beyond the scope of the 2-3 finishers, won the race? Yes.

NT

Is Summer Bird the new Jazil?

Though we will never know this, had Calvin waited as he had in the Preakness and Derby, does MTB get up in time? I think his run fizzles and I am sure people would be on here criticizing he was too far back, didn't move him fast enough. Horseracing is just made for revisionists huh? I'm glad you acknowledge SB was the superior horse this time and though you haven't mentioned it, I am pretty sure you had a bet on him because you did recognize he was a live longshot last week.

I think Summer Bird will prove to be a better horse than Jazil.

I think Summer Bird is better at 9 furlongs or less, Jazil is better at 10 furlongs or more.

Jazil only won 2 career races out of 11, I still remember him retiring off of a failed allowance race, just as Monarchos had. I believe the question's intentions were to ask is this a one off..I don't think it was. This horse still has an upside.

What exactly are you basing this on?

yes, basically I was asking if people thought he'd be a one hit wonder at 12 furlongs like our favorite horse, Jazil.

I like Summer Bird. I actually think he will be tough in the 9 and 10 furlong races. I don't know that he is super talented but he could do really well in this division simply by getting the distance and grinding home in the stretch. If Quality Road or Rachel don't partake in a race, stamina could be enough many times...

I also think Summer Bird was best in the Belmont. However that could easily be an optical illusion as several have argued that Mine That Bird or even Dunkirk had rough trips as far as the flow of the race.
Nice youtube replay - I like the way Summer Bird looks from 200 - 100 yards out. Of course the flow of the race helps greatly here as well.

I think it is a lot safer to say Mine That Bird or Summer Bird. SB didn't have to change a thing, and MTB simply had to wait longer to move...

With Dunkirk it really gets hypothetical... we are asking for a whole different approach - patience from the gate, maybe getting shuffled back a little inside traffic, settling back off the pace with Summer Bird and Chocolate Candy and last-moving with Summer Bird. - Who knows if all that is even possible? And then we have a fracture as well to complicate things...:(

Performance and speed figures. Both had one race at 10 furlongs and one at 12 furlongs on the dirt. Jazil was faster in both on speed figures and was 1st/4th in those races as opposed to 1st/6th for Summer Bird. There's no reasonable metric that puts Summer Bird ahead from 10 furlongs and on.

I would say Mine That Bird ran better than Dunkirk. Having a much wider trip and all. Here are the quarter splits I came up with in the race for the top 3....
I'm sure they're off, but not too much.

Summer Bird:

24.18
23.72

50.98 (second half mile)
23.46
25.20

Dunkirk:

23.41
23.72
25.30
25.43
24.16
26.06

Mine That Bird:

25.28
23.38

50.13 (second half mile)
22.87
26.39

I guess the argument is...was Dunkirk's 23.41 first quarter more taxing than Mine That Bird running the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th quarters significantly faster than Dunkirk. Plus he took a much wider path the whole way. I don't think it's much of an argument.

Big sample size. . .

I'm with you on this one Coach. Dunkirk has gotten incredible media support, benefitted from more excuses for failure to finish and still is getting the benefit of the doubt for Silver medal performances. Quality Road stole his heart that day in the Florida Derby and he has yet to respond by winning a subsequent race. The bias written about in DRF may explain Dunkirk's second wind and/or MTB's lack of a sustained effort going wide in the 4 path Saturday.

As opposed to the sample of zero that suggests Summer Bird is better?

I wouldn't suggest either is better because it's irrelevant and unknowable - especially considering that Summer Bird has run exactly five times. Just seems like a silly discussion to me. . . but carry on. What was Jazil's beyer in the Belmont?