So much for HOY. What a piece of ****.

Ain't too easy when you gotta stare another horse's rump....Beaten soundly by a multiple graded stakes winner!! Keep waiting Ron Ellis, It's almost X-Mas!!

Andy Serling was right!! Paper!! He's a useful front runner, and that's about it.

Please. Andy said Dakota Phone could beat him. Didn't say anything about the winner. And Dakota Phone didn't beat him.

Hind sight is always 20/20 but I wonder if Valdivia should have used that horses natural speed a little more, those fractions were very soft. I hate when fast horses make the race a sprint to the wire.

He didn't give himself the best chance but I'd bet that if odds could have been taken at the 1/4 pole, Rail Trip would have been 1-50. If he was the kind of horse that he is supposed to be, he wins that anyway. In my opinion, Ellis wasted some races with him. The horse was going well and instead of stepping him up to take on better, he wasted a couple of races at SA. I feel like each work and race is taking something out of a horse and I don't think of them as reserves that can be replinished. I see them each as having a finite number of efforts in them and, especially when you get one that had whatever the issues he had that kept him off the track for so long, when you get them good, take advantage. Don't waste efforts. They found out absolutely nothing in starts four and five that they didn't find out in start three. Then they were talking about running him three times during this meet. That would have given him eight starts from the end of November thru the Gold Cup. I thought they were trying to go from overly conservative to overly ambitious.

Agreed.....if he was more aggressive, Dakota Phone would have jogged.

He's certainly not a distance horse. Maybe if the turn him back he will be OK. He's got ability but the hype was ridiculous.

I was the only one that hyped him like that and I didn't reach the levels that some did with Harlem Rocker last year. I don't think so anyway.

The TVG dream team was fellating Ron Ellis and going on and on about Rail Trip before the race (looks great, flesh is perfect, blah blah blah). Then, they show all of his stretch runs and Frank Lyons has a revelation about how his high head carriage will make it hard for him when he gets into a tough stretch battle. It was almost as if the first time they had seen his replays was on that back-track.

NT

Who and I repeat WHO listens to TVG?????????????????

bobby is rambling again
 

that was a tough race to pick the winner in.

Rail Trip looked flat out quicker than everyone except Aggie Engineer.

Ball Four simply didn't seem like he could get the lead from either Rail Trip or Engineer.

That is a quirky surface, at times on synthetic, and I think that small fields even more so, - a horse that has the lead has an easier time holding that lead. It takes too much wasted energy for a rival to challenge early, and unlike dirt the decent pace horses actually kick home with something late.

when you have a full field , you are more likely to see cheaper speed lead from the quality types, as well as those who will risk making multiple moves, but not in a 6 horse field.

If you had told Serling or anyone with a half decent understanding of the sport, that BallFour would get the lead and run a 48 half, they would ALL have picked him.

He just didn't seem to be quick enough to grab that initial lead.

Solis was just incredibly stupid for not chirping and urging his horse like a madman to the first turn. His horse had zero chance of closing past rail link late , and his horse was quicker on paper than all others... So there is no logical explanation for the mild urging he gave from the gate. Do these guys just give their same ride everytime or do they actually study the form? Who gave Solis his instructions??

the trainer switch back to Biancone gave Ball Four plenty of room for improvement[or more correctly a return to form], but it was unlikely that he would have the lead into the 1st turn. Rail Link was vulnerable but in a small field you have to look at the probabilities and narrow down your play,
the most-likely upsetter= Dakota was a rip off in price.

basically unbettable, but you get that sick feeling in your stomach when a longshot comes in and you disliked the favorite.


EDIT -- QUOTE from Joe Talamo reflects that Biancone and Talamo used correct Tactics to have Best Chance of Winning:
Talamo was jubilant. "[Biancone] told me to get the lead and (Ball Four) will do the rest."

:tro:

Nice pick. $34 winner.

That was the ultimate no-pick.

I hear you. Running horses in their current conditions is never a good idea.

Yep, the Big Cap as his 4th career start was a no-brainer. Its not like he would have been stretching him out in distance significantly at the same time.

Yeah, cuz when you got an unsound one going good its best to rush them into top company even if it means sacrificing a little foundation and experience. Its not like running in a Grade 1 is any more stressful than a modest allowance race.

Yes, waste careers instead.

It's ok that you are stuck in the old ways and can't adapt to the way the game is played today. Conditions just don't mean as much these days. Was it last year when there were hardly any 2yo allowances run at Belmont or something like that so maiden winners often have to go straight to stakes company? You have eyes. You can see that the differences these days between stakes and allowance races is not like used to be. You saw that field yesterday. Was it really what you'd call a grade two level race? Not to me. Without knowing what the name of the race was, that could have easily passed for a Thursday allowance at Hollywood. It was not more stressful simply because of the title and grade. I just happen to think it's silly to waste two or three races getting this supposed foundation and experience (all the good it did him yesterday) when he's probably not going to have more than 6-7 more career races anyway. This is not the game of the past.

I cant blame Ellis for the horse losing yesterday or taking his time with a nice colt, but it certainly turned him into a paper Tiger. Ellis does frustrate me despite winning at such a high %, he is a bit like Harty IMO.

That race had to have taken nothing out of him, it was a crawl pace. They should wheel him back in two weeks in the Met where he fits much better, but I am sure Ellis has a race in August planned.

Probably another condition race at 1 1/16.

he doesn't really look like a stakes horse unless the race is a stakes in name only, or void of speed.

Well, typically one of the more significant differences between allowance races and stakes races is the pace. Not just in strict terms of the early fractions either. There is something to the notion of "cheap speed" and what I guess you'd call "quality speed". Its much less taxing on horse to set or chase a :48 half when the closest rival is sure to falter then it is to do so versus a classier horse who can respond when things heat up. Basically, Rail Trip (who's route efforts were much less impressive than his sprints) was doing to allowance foes what Ball Four did (and has done in the past in graded stakes) to him. He would have almost certainly run up the track in the Big Cap or something like the San Antonio when having to take it to horses like Well Armed and Motto Mundo, had he been rushed into those spots.

Instead, he has come along steadily and really has lost nothing of importance by finally losing a race (by the way, did you happen to give up on Azeri after she lost the La Canada?) other than technicolor dreamcoat of hype he's worn since the beginning of this year. Now we have a better idea of where he fits and nothing suggests, given the current makeup of the older horse division, that he won't make more noise in stakes routes at least in CA, maybe even win one or two. At the same time, as more learned posters than ourselves suggested, he may prove to be a top quality sprinter.