You can say this for every horse in the race but the cards do have to fall his way. I dont think if he gets in any type of trouble that he will be able to overcome but seeing that he doesnt get in that much trouble in his races and he does have a nice style about him I will take my chances on 25-1 or higher to make a big score. Now I will also have plenty of backup tickets with the horses that figure but if I am to take a chance on any horse in the race to make a big score it would be this one. Im def not calling him a lock but a very nice value.

always better to bet overlays than underlays

If 25-1 is an overlay, which price do you think he should be assuming Quality Road is in the race?

I mis-read your post... I'm sure i'll have tickets with him on top as well, but I think it's a bit crazy to just put all eggs in his basket. He does have plenty of ? marks, despite being a winning machine... outrunning Giant Oak is nothing to be proud about, but winning a lot is. It's a good race this year, very competitive.

I think that as more races are run, that statement will be proven false.

barbero was

Musket Man will most likely be an underlay of Derby Day. I like him, he's a nice horse, and a friend of mine is involved with him, but he's very unlikely to win the Derby and anything under 25 or 30 to one is probably an underlay.

Just because a horse is a big price ( small price ) doesn't mean it is an overlay ( underlay ). Musket Man won two supposed " big " races. He will be bet more because of a resume earned against pretty weak opposition than he will be underbet due to his relatively weaker races than a number of horses.

That being said, he will be an overlay in relation to Pioneer of the Nile.

Do you think Giant Oak is getting better? I thought his improved effort in the Ill Derby had more to do with weaker competition.

He may be a decent horse and I like that his connections are being careful with him but I like him in teh American and/or Hollywood Derby more than any others this year.

NT

Oh I definitely like him for the Mid-America triple this summer if that's the route they go with him. His maiden race was phenomenal and I think he's going to prove to be a pretty serious grass runner...not sure we still know how good he is on that surface.

It's not that I think he's a Gr I type dirt horse or anything, but his three non-turf races that were run on the square (ie, no track made of soup and no horrific traffic trouble) were plenty solid for me to give him credit. On top of that, I am pretty confident that he'll get better as the year goes on.

He's long in the tooth for excuses, but it's tough to really know, because I'm still not sure we know how good he may or may not be, and my money is on us finding out this summer that he's a hell of a racehorse.

Understandable and I wouldn't be altogether surprised to see him have a very productive "2nd half."

I also applaud Chris Block for being so prudent because in the hands of many other horsemen there would be no hesitation about his plans for May 2.

NT

Strangely enough, it sort of struck me as odd that Block even took him to the IL Derby at all. That seemed out of character for him, but I respect him more than probably any other conditioner in Chicago, so I figure he's got the right idea, but I've seen him run so many horses UNDER their heads in Chicago that it was a bit surprising to see him continue on with Oak in the IL Derby.

The Mid-America triple could be ripe for the taking though, especially given the fact that if he runs in all three (and hits the board in the American Derby), he'd get entry and starting fees for all three for $800 total while racing for something like $800,000 in purses and a half-million bonus for sweeping it.

Not saying he could for sure do it, but the first two legs of that usually come up pretty easy...so why not?

Musket Man has done very little wrong, On Derby Day the price will be right, He has the right style and every race he runs ,seems to get better and better, He has room to improve (only a 98) and I want a horse who is not over the top. I want a horse with room to improve.kgar311, you are right. he is the horse to watch on Derby Day. BY the way he is the first horse to arrive at Churchill Downs, he is gonna get very familiar with the track. see u at the windows..........

i think it's a great story would love to see Derek Ryan in there and get the roses

it's a tougher field ths year , that being said , if he ran last year does anyone think he could have been on the bottom of the exacta with Big Brown?

you got me there !

Gosh darn I hope for your sake that horse doesn't finish ITM. I'm definitely not a big fan of his, but you have been just plain relentless.

While Musket Man has the 2 word 3 syllable name I like to see in a Derby horse his dosage profile is a little troubling.

DP = 5-1-4-0-0 (10) DI = 4.00

He doesn't have that many points and he has zero in the "solid" & "professional" stamina areas. Maybe they will decide the numbers are bogus after he wins.

Good luck. I'm not using him.

Well said.........

After watching a Replay of the TB Derby this morning I believe I need to recant something I said about the horse getting in some trouble. Although he did get out of the gate nicely and was in good position down the backside, going into the far turn he was in between horses, in which he loves to be for some reason getting dirt kicked in his face, Centeno had to stand straight up on the horse as he got into some traffic trouble. Once he stood up he lost about 3 lengths and about 4-5 horses passed him at that time. After he regrouped, he swung 5 wide into the lane and with a tremendous burst got up at the wire. Watching that replay just made me like him even more now. The race in the Ill. Derby just just showed me what this horse can do with a decent trip. This horse is all heart and loves to win, I like that recipie.

Dosage is so out of vogue now.

it does go with what you said about his sire