Pyro = Theregoesjojo

Pyro was 'exposed' by not winning on PolyTrack? What did that expose him as exactly other than a horse that was better running on authentic main track dirt surfaces?

And the Derby is a singularly bizarre event where even if Friesan Fire runs a lifetime best he could be 6th for any number of reasons or legitimate Derby excuses. Ultimately, performance in the Derby is meaningless to everyone but the winner.

I'm not crazy about Friesan Fire's chances to do anything in the Derby, but sweeping the Fair Grounds sophomore stakes is a nice accomplishment and brandishes the colt as one of the very solid and high quality members of this class of 3 year olds.

pyro was a miler ,
friesan fire has so much conduit mare stamina compared to the rest of these horses...

Pyro was bred to be a miler, miler sire and miler damside, and he was a nice miler. Came back and won a G3 8.5f race at CD after the Derby.

Friesan Fire at least has a sire who could stay. Damside is miler types for a couple of generations, stayers farther back.

Shortening the La Derby to 8.5f (done in 1988) made it a less useful prep; all the better winners, including one Ky Derby winner, since shortening required good 9f+ races thereafter to contend. The new fashion of bringing in horses 'fresh' (meaning off of a layoff) may work if the horse has a class advantage or a sport-horse trainer, but one has to question whether it is the best strategy for FF. One would have to think that longer race in the interim, even if he lost, would set him up better for the ultimate test.

A method of analysis developed by Bill Lathrop (I have a copy of his book). It serves as a counterpoint to the Dosage fellows who only look at the sires. He identifies major female ancestors foaled since 1900 and analysed their tail-female descendents for distance proclivities.

The methodology involves looking at the female lines of all 16 ancestors in the 4th generation. If you are using the Pedigree Online figures, you should be warned that Bill has recently complained on our board that the site is miscalculating in some instances.

Can you run a conduit mare analysis on my pedigree?

The ladies say I have a lot of stamina.

:wf

I don't know Phil, I did some research on the internet and you came back as a sprinter.

:mad:

:tro:

Hey she could have said you're more like War Emblem.

I laughed.

sure, came back as 2 furlongs on the turf

I'm going to jump out the window.

Don't land on top of me please.

In my opinion Pyro was exposed by facing a better quality field and not running worth a darn. I noted the surface switch because that may have also been the cause of the poor performance. Apparently, it was a precursor of things to come as evidenced by his 8th place finish in the Derby.

There is no question that the 'sweep' by FF is notable accomplishment. I'm just convinced that his Derby performance will be more like Pyro's than one of the top 3-4 more likely winners.

I believe Friesan Fire is the real deal and I will be surprised if he doesn't finish in the top3-4 in the Derby, barring being stuck in the 1-3 or 18-20 hole, which is obviously a big qualifier.

i find the seven week gap in racing troublesome. the lack of a 1 1/8th race in his pp's is as well.

but i think he'll finish ahead of square eddie.

I hear ya, but Eight Belles didn't have a prior 9f race either, and I think FF is better than she was at the same time and is bred to go longer.

A little tangent on Square Eddie...would it be so wrong to sneak an allowance into this horse before the Derby or something? Honestly, what are those people thinking?

if he's not in good enough shape to run once preceding the derby, how can they expect he can handle the derby itself?
i'm thinking he doesn't run.