What Dunkirk is really up against
 

1) POTN
2) Freisan Fire
3) Terrain
4) Old Fashioned
5) I Want Revenge
6) Hold Me Back
7) Desert Party
8) The Pamplemousse
9) Quality Road
10) Regal Ransom
11) Hilarious Euro

12) West Side Bernie
13) Chocolate Candy
14) Musket Man
15) Win Willy
16) Papa Chem
17) Dunkirk
18) Imperial Council
19) Giant Oak

Who am I really missing that is even considering the Derby? He is fine, and will get into the Derby

Are you forgetting that there are two 750k races next week along with a 500k? Then two huge ones the week after? There could be another ten horses that are on the cusp that get a ton of graded earnings between now and then. 150k was not enough last year or many of the prior years.

NT

Jojo, Take the Points who is heading to the Blue Grass, Imperial Council who is heading to the Wood. Even 2nd in those races is worth $150k. Both the latter 2 have graded earnings already. They most likely will accrue more in the next 2 weeks. I'm not sure where Jojo is after today's 3rd.

RANK HORSE EARNINGS Chances of going
1. Square Eddie $774,981 50/50
2. Pioneerof the Nile 743,250 100%
3. Friesan Fire 570,465 100%
4. Vineyard Haven 417,500 0%
5. Terrain 410,830 50/50
6. Old Fashioned 330,000 100%
7. I Want Revenge 324,000 100%
8. Hold Me Back 288,000 100%
9. Desert Party 241,667 90%
10. West Side Bernie 235,160 50/50
11. Chocolate Candy 220,000 80%
12. Bittel Road 211,000 30%
13. Musket Man* 200,000 80%
14. Crowded House (GB) 195,020 ?
15. The Pamplemousse 180,000 90%
16. Win Willy* 180,000 90%
17. Papa Clem 160,000 50/50
18. Charitable Man 150,000 20%
19. Quality Road* 150,000 100%
20. Mine That Bird 138,705 will be ahead, no more preps
21. Beethoven 132,494 injured, doubtful
22. General Quarters 130,645 will be ahead, one more prep?
23. Munnings 105,000 ?? prob should be off this list
24. Flying Private 94,000 Ark Derby?
25. Cribnote 90,000 not pointing to derby
26. Flying Pegasus 90,000 Ark Derby?
27. Join the Dance 67,500
28. Theregoesjojo 58,063 will be ahead, no more preps
29. Regal Ransom 50,000 * jumps to top of list, 80%?
30. Imperial Council 50,000 Wood Memorial
31. Proceed Bee* 47,000 Lexington?
32. Atomic Rain 40,000 ?
33. Take the Points 40,000 Wood Memorial
34. Feisty Suances 40,000
35. Jose Adan 37,900
36. Bear's Rocket 36,000
37. Poltergeist 30,000
38. Justdontcallmejeri* 30,000
39. Uno Mas 28,000
40. Gone Astray 27,500

Looking at this list, Dunkirk is in better shape than I had originally thought. He'll be 20th, with that goofball Kempton race taking a slot, so really 21st. He'd have to have ALL of those above him to go (very unlikely), and I only see 5 that can leapfrog him barring some bizzare horses winning next week and the week after.

I'm still not a huge fan but he showed me a lot today.

I am going by the possiblities of horses like I Want Revenge, The Pamplemousse, and Old Fashioned running top two, if that doesn't happen sure, Dunkirk is in trouble, but if it does, those spots are already solidified

damn we are all thinking about this at the same time...
You have Regal Ransom on there twice. If you're ranking by graded earnings, he's now #1.

Papa Chem = Freudian slip?

$75k + $58k = $133k by my calculations.

Been drinking...

Not ranked by Graded Earnings, just thinking about reality and who is really going to go.

Square Eddie
Big Drama
A horse or two from the Blue Grass.
A horse from the Illinois Derby.
The Lexington winner.

I'll agree with the bottom three, but the top two, come on....Do you really think that either will be going to the Derby, one was all over the track and isn't a horse that stays healthy, and the other hasn't raced since January, and needs everything to go perfect for him to be even considered.

I wouldn't be shocked at all if Reddam & O'Neil put Square Eddie in the Derby.

I would be, but hell, do it, allows me to toss a horse with ease and he will get played...

Square Eddie's people say he's on track for the Derby. And Big Drama's connections have not ruled it out. And even if they had, I still say he's going.

i wouldn't either. not one bit.

The Lexington is a graded stakes race three weeks from today. If Dunkirk recovers well off this race he could run it that race.

If the connections want to get the earning needed to qualify for the Derby they have the chance. I'm sure Pletcher/ Tabor have a Plan B mapped out.

this is what pletcher said pre-fla derby:

A second puts us where we're on the bubble. … If we're in that situation, my gut reaction is that this will be his last start before the Kentucky Derby. If for some reason he doesn't get in, we'll just have to live with that and go on to the next step, which could be the Preakness."


so, seemingly they won't be at churchill unless his current standing ends up high enough in a few weeks time-and i doubt the earnings he has accumulated will actually be enough after all the 'preps' are run. of course, we all know in this sport that things can change...but it doesn't appear that they have a plan to change their schedule and try to squeeze in another race before may.

I think their Plan B was to run a rabbit, and regardless, win today.

Eric

Every year people run horses in the Derby because they can and not because they should. Why would this year be any different?

i dont think Big Drama goes. Hes a really nice sprinter and his trainer understands that. If they go though... I really dont blame them... the Derby is the Derby.

It will be a great Derby i just really hope Dunkirk runs cause he's my early pick AS OF NOW!

Maybe Tabor and company will buy some of the less valuable horses ahead of Dunkirk on the earnings list and then simply not run them.