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-   -   What did you learn this year? (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=26880)

Merlinsky 12-23-2008 10:56 PM

I learned how many lemons you could buy for $16 million.

Bigsmc 12-24-2008 02:35 AM

The ADW situation taught me that I am not as big a degenerate as I thought I was. It was quite easy for me to not gamble because the tracks I normally played were not available to me. I found other things to do this summer to keep me busy.

That should be scary to the industry.

westcoastinvader 12-24-2008 04:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheSpyder
Another year about to close. What is amazing about this sport of handicapping horses is you're always learning.


I learned to respect luck and gut feelings.

Last New Year's Day weekend I watched some replays and picked out a double digit ML horse that I was confident was going to hit the board here in the Bay Area. Just planned to take $150 for one BS/fun play of the weekend at $50 to place and $100 to show.

I had planned to hit the OTB at opening, but my wife asked I head to my mother in law's house to set up the new electronics we gave her for Christmas. I figured I had time to go across the bay and get it done, and come back and get the bet in. Plans went awry with traffic and unexpected tech issues, and I didn't make it to any place to bet until after the race's post time.

On the drive back across the bridge I told my wife, "if that horse I was thinking of betting placed, I probably shouldn't bet the rest of the year."

Of course it placed. I forget the payouts, but it was like $14 to place and $8 to show.

The superstitious part of me knew that it was something of an omen. Then, about six weeks later I had a premonition that Ryan Newman was going to win the Daytona 500. I made a nice chunk of change with a straight bet on Kevin Harvick at about 14-1 a couple years earlier, and planned to put $100 on Newman, $100 on Junior, and $50 on Tony Stewart. A sideshow bet for a weekend of blackjack, and I knew I would probably make up any loss at the blackjack tables. We had plans to make it to Reno where I was going to bet, but work stuff came up at the last minute, and we didn't go. Ryan Newman won, at I think 35+-1 odds.

Another omen. And I knew it.

I ended up having probably the worst year of gambling of my entire gambling life. I lost at blackjack in Reno and Tahoe like five times, and I have historically NEVER lost at blackjack. I caught my longshot tri's on several occasions, but the chalk never missed the board. I didn't collect a ticket of any significance at the Breeders' Cup.

Now I did probably go somewhere between 45-55 and 55-45 on other horses the rest of the year, but way off my lifetime average.

I'm far from giving up gambling, but I should have listened to my gut last New Year's.

herkhorse 12-24-2008 06:51 AM

I've learned how to use words like machinations and ensconced in the same sentence. It's really helped with my people skills.

brockguy 12-24-2008 07:21 AM

Bet the Euros!

GPK 12-24-2008 07:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brockguy
Bet the Euros!


^^learned he is really Scottish:eek:

-BT- 12-24-2008 10:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bigsmc
The ADW situation taught me that I am not as big a degenerate as I thought I was. It was quite easy for me to not gamble because the tracks I normally played were not available to me. I found other things to do this summer to keep me busy.

That should be scary to the industry.



great point, i only played churchill downs 1 time this year, and that was on derby day. Outta sight, outta mind

i'm gonna work on my ROI and singling more in my horizontal bets

happy holidays

-bt-

Oaklawnfan 12-24-2008 10:00 PM

I learned that the Fairgrounds has a really long stretch and I should have listened to FGfan.:rolleyes:

sumitas 12-25-2008 01:06 AM

Believe what your eyes tell you . Stay conservative . Be Bullish and Tin Cup Chalice are 2 examples .

Bigsmc 12-25-2008 05:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sumitas
Believe what your eyes tell you . Stay conservative . Be Bullish and Tin Cup Chalice are 2 examples .

Tin Cup Chalice going to Japan is not an example of staying conservative.

I believed my eyes when they told me he should not go.

sumitas 12-25-2008 07:53 AM

Agreed . Prior to Japan . To be more precise . Pardon moi . Of course I tell myself every year to believe my eyes .

Do eyes improve with age ?

TheSpyder 12-25-2008 08:15 AM

Another thing I have learned and got better at is I can cap a race, watch a race, and not bet on it. I use to think I had to bet every race. I'll only play one card at a time, I don't hop from one track to another, so I use to think I had to have action. Now, I'll have interest in a race without money on it which has allowed me to focus on races I feel strongly about, bet more on those races, and win more.

It only took 38 years playing the ponies to do this!

Spyder

jballscalls 12-25-2008 11:49 AM

I learned that i can't pick any winners in NY and need to never play it. Stick to places i am solid at picking winners, ie CA, WA and FL.

Thunder Gulch 12-25-2008 07:42 PM

I learned that after 9 mint juleps I can't walk a straight line.:zz: ...but at that point I may still argue that I'm still ok to have a beer or something.


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