Bred for an off-track, wide trip in a field of six last out? I don't know Andy....just thought he would be a better price than Wanderin Boy that's all.

I'm not sure Timber Reserve will run if the track is really bad....though we haven't got as much rain today as expected.....yet.

I actually think Timber Reserve is OK but I can see the other side. Wanderin Boy is probably the likeliest upsetter.

He was awful last time.

He should be five times the price of Wanderin Boy....at least. Considering his chances, as compared to Wanderin Boy, I doubt he will be a " better " price. You are seriously mistaking odds for value.

So, what would be "fair value" with a Curlin / Ravel exacta and would it be bigger than a Curlin / Wanderin Boy exacta?

I think he's OK as well but expect him to be a bit underlaid tomorrow if he goes.
I'm going to include him underneath. I'm also thinking about including Stones River in a few tri's in the third slot. Do you think he has any shot of sucking up for third?

Honestly....no. He looks terrible to me. Isn't he the horse that tested positive at Delaware?

I hope this is your idea of a joke.

Ok, let me restate it then....What would be "fair value" with a Curlin / Ravel exacta?

Which question were you asking....the above or which result was more likely?

I hope you at least know the answer to the latter question.

Yes he's the one.

I'm just trying to exclude Mambo in Seattle from my tickets. A silly move but one that I'm gaining confidence in with the endorsement of pg1985 in hooves' thread.

how's the rain?

I think he's the major underlay of the race. Not impossible but pretty unlikely. Mambo, that is.

Really has done little more than drizzle today. Not sure what tomorrow's going to be like, but if it's like today, both the main and the turf will be fine (i.e. moisture but no bog).