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-   -   Belmont Thursday.. Terrific racing (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=25110)

hrfan 09-17-2008 11:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mike
I'm in the midst of a losing streak. Generally, do play alot of longshots. I think I'm trying to seriously evaluate and came up with very modest picks, oddswise.

i can see why someone would stab with Buddys Humor or the Coa horse in the 5th, but i cant see Ballast... I think this horse is finished.

Mike 09-18-2008 12:22 AM

In the 'cap I'll side with Discreet Treasure. He's been the heavy favorite in all 3 of his races, lost the last two but one race was a 2nd to Dr Pleasure. He's been competitive against good quality horses for the level and is now possibly 15-1. Loved the mud in his career opening, a race that was taken off the turf. So, they give him two more shots at dirt and realize he won't excel. The switch back to a grass race should be a huge plus for this horse

Mike 09-18-2008 12:22 AM

I feel good

docicu3 09-18-2008 12:33 AM

#11 Hammock (12-1 ML) is somewhat intriquing in the nightcap from the outside post with elements of both early speed and closing ability in his PP's .
Rajiv has won on him at this track and distance. If Baletti doesn't fire for some reason. Mr Sidney/Valtrus and Hammock should be the main competition the former at shorter odds than Hammock.

Discreet Treasure is another example of a decent dirt horse unable to win again trying turf as a cure for "good not great disease". Rogue Victory is interesting. I don't usually play MSW winners next out in contentious fields and this one is pretty salty for a N1X. If he beats me I'll sleep okay.

3,11/7,8 for me in the last one

hrfan 09-18-2008 12:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
Why does he have to be used? Where is his good race?

come on man, his good race is his 56 length maiden score, one of the best jocks sticking with him, and a turf pedigree

docicu3 09-18-2008 12:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mike
In the 'cap I'll side with Discreet Treasure. He's been the heavy favorite in all 3 of his races, lost the last two but one race was a 2nd to Dr Pleasure. He's been competitive against good quality horses for the level and is now possibly 15-1. Loved the mud in his career opening, a race that was taken off the turf. So, they give him two more shots at dirt and realize he won't excel. The switch back to a grass race should be a huge plus for this horse


Mike I wasn't trying to give you a hard time as I didn't see your comments until now when I posted. Discreet Treasure has just been one of those "Hoovers" sucking up good money while posting solid numbers and I think the turf is more desperation than desired choice but if he beats me tomorrow I'll sing your praises......

hrfan 09-18-2008 12:53 AM

Anyone have anything on the earlier races ? 2-5 ?

3rd Joppa Flats is clearly the one to beat IMO
4th Appears to be wide open as well as the 5th

2nd... im not sure how i feel about Leo or Missile Motor

letswastemoney 09-18-2008 04:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hrfan
Anyone have anything on the earlier races ? 2-5 ?

3rd Joppa Flats is clearly the one to beat IMO
4th Appears to be wide open as well as the 5th

2nd... im not sure how i feel about Leo or Missile Motor

Joppa Flats? Isn't that the horse that always runs 2nd?

hrfan 09-18-2008 08:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by letswastemoney
Joppa Flats? Isn't that the horse that always runs 2nd?

nothing to beat here, i was his biggest basher, but his last 2 crush these

Bobby Fischer 09-18-2008 08:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mike
I'll start in the 3rd with Buddy's Holiday. I think he'll stay at the 5-1 ml

Yea it is interesting that Levine brings him back @ 7f rather than looking for a route to do the easy lead thing again. 7 and the other pace, could be a big negative, or maybe he can press and win in this mediocre group? He is the best possible play in the 3rd.

hrfan 09-18-2008 09:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer
Yea it is interesting that Levine brings him back @ 7f rather than looking for a route to do the easy lead thing again. 7 and the other pace, could be a big negative, or maybe he can press and win in this mediocre group? He is the best possible play in the 3rd.

BEST POSSIBLE PLAY ? i swear right now i am truly confused, are you making a joke or being serious ?

Bobby Fischer 09-18-2008 09:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hrfan
BEST POSSIBLE PLAY ? i swear right now i am truly confused, are you making a joke or being serious ?

meaning I wouldn't play Joppa Flat's or Sleuse to win at their price.

There is a decent chance Levine believes that Buddy's Holiday doesn't need an easy lead in a route.
He's entered in a 55k 7furlong race, and Levine doesn't "waste" a lot of races.

I probably should have typed "best of the possible plays"

hrfan 09-18-2008 09:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer
meaning I wouldn't play Joppa Flat's or Sleuse to win at their price.

There is a decent chance Levine believes that Buddy's Holiday doesn't need an easy lead in a route.
He's entered in a 55k 7furlong race, and Levine doesn't "waste" a lot of races.

I probably should have typed "best of the possible plays"


i will be putting 90% of my money into joppa as a single, using Sargent Seattle a little on some back up's

ddthetide 09-18-2008 10:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Heels1989
Car? Horse? Golf Ball? :D

pictures or video of CS on a horse?:D

odbaxter 09-18-2008 11:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by letswastemoney
Joppa Flats? Isn't that the horse that always runs 2nd?

Hooves, What do you think?

I found this in the Trip Notes! from 8-25


****joppa flats

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

should have won by 3 in last and i hope they move up in class in the next

Kasept 09-18-2008 11:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer
I probably should have typed "best of the possible plays"

"Best of possible plays" to me in the 3rd is Pat Kelly's NY bred, (#3) Good Card.. It's his first race back as he gears up for his fall-winter campaign, but he's consistant and can tuck in behind Sleuse to sit a perfect stalking trip at what figures to be well north of the 10-1 ML price.


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