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-   -   Fasig-Tipton July sale (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=23956)

ELA 07-15-2008 09:03 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by VOL JACK
Yeah, bids were made on all of the horses. But who were placing the bids.???
The million dollar question! Or in this case the $10,000 question? LOL.

Whenever I try and buy a horse that went RNA -- the mystery is always "where was the last live bid"

I had one in the Keeneland sale and I am telling you, there was one live bid other than my own from $45k all the way to $65k. I was very thankful there was at least one buyer there. Of course it can be a totally different story when there is no live bid. A seller, consignor, anyone can bid it up themselves to create the after-sale market.

Bottom line -- I think below $100k, this market will take a major hit.

Eric

sumitas 07-15-2008 10:57 PM
How many of the horses sold at this sale will actually race for the current new owner ? I have no idea but I get the feeling only a few will.

Anywho, on to the Spa for the next round of yearling sales.

Linny 07-15-2008 10:58 PM
A quick logistical question re: seeling at F-T July.
When does the seller have to commit to a "reserve" price? Is it at nomination or far later in the process?

ELA 07-15-2008 11:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by sumitas
How many of the horses sold at this sale will actually race for the current new owner ? I have no idea but I get the feeling only a few will.

Anywho, on to the Spa for the next round of yearling sales.
Great question. I think the one area of the marketplace, as it relates to "buyers", that won't get as hurt will be the pinhookers. They are somewhat in a position of they "have to buy" -- at least something -- it just becomes a question of what, where, how much, etc. If the pinhookers back off, they are pretty much putting themselves in a position of not being able to do business. Their wallets might be affected, they might not spend as much or buy as many, but they will still buy or else they can't conduct business.

Like you said, on to the Spa, and then Keeneland for about a zillion horses being sold.

Eric

ELA 07-15-2008 11:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Linny
A quick logistical question re: seeling at F-T July.
When does the seller have to commit to a "reserve" price? Is it at nomination or far later in the process?
Far later. The seller can set an RNA up to very late (as long as the RNA price gets to the auction stand). However, it doesn't matter -- the seller can bid or "protect" the horse to any price he/she wants.

Eric

Linny 07-15-2008 11:33 PM
Thanks Eric. I was wondering if a baby nominated early in the year might have had a reserve set at that time and as the economy has gotten worse, the reserve might seem high, but that appears not to be the case.

As I often see in the hunter/jumper world, it looks like many sellers are basing reserves on "what they have into the horse" than a reasonable reflection of the market as it stands TODAY.

sumitas 07-16-2008 09:10 AM
Maybe it was my imagination but I did think the internet pic of the high priced Unforgettable Max colt actually looked like a yearling as opposed to a 4 year old that we are used to seeing. It was refreshing to see a yearling actually look like the young kids they are. But again, it could be my perception was off.

But 22 buyers did request the post sale steroid tests so there could be some returns. And they should be made public if there is a positive, it seems.
http://news.bloodhorse.com/article/46167.htm

freddymo 07-16-2008 09:59 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ELA
That's the problem with the marketplace, vis a vis an inefficient market. Everyone would like to believe it's an efficient market, but far too many sellers turn deaf ears to the reality. There will be a major fallout, a market correction so to speak, and we'll see a cleansing of the market.

Unfortunately, like you said, there aren't sellers to accomodate that part of the market. All the sellers are looking to sell big money horses. There are only so many sellers and horses who can deliver the product that the top end buyers are looking for.

More importantly, in today's market -- today -- who new has come to the table to play the game at that level? Interesting observation. You see a Bob Lewis pass away, Sanan back off, a friction between Coolmore and Darley/Godolphin/et al, Melnyk back off, and so on. A new player comes along -- like Einsidler -- plays a bit and then backs off. Zayat comes along, plays in the big leagues, but not enough to make up for the losses. For the few truly hot horses -- there are just a few major players. The rest of the market is weak due to the sellers, the economics, etc.

Eric
Markets by definition are NOT efficent hence opportunity for the seller and or the buyer

sumitas 07-16-2008 10:27 AM
http://news.bloodhorse.com/article/46167.htm
Take notice of the non-chalant comments about steroids in yearlings made by Jay Em Ess Stable's Samantha Siegel and West Point's Finley. One wonders if this ambilance about doping extends to their racing stable.

Remember, 22 buyers do not agree with the status quo statements from Siegel and Finley.

paisjpq 07-16-2008 11:22 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by sumitas
http://news.bloodhorse.com/article/46167.htm
Take notice of the non-chalant comments about steroids in yearlings made by Jay Em Ess Stable's Samantha Siegel and West Point's Finley. One wonders if this ambilance about doping extends to their racing stable.

Remember, 22 buyers do not agree with the status quo statements from Siegel and Finley.
I wouldn't necessarily dimiss their comments as nonchalant...they are pretty much right, you can usually tell which ones have been given something and which ones haven't. And they both said that they would test if they were suspicious.

sumitas 07-16-2008 11:56 AM
From the bloodhorse article...
“We did test horses from the 2-year-old sales and did not have a positive,” Finley said. “I think the message is out to the industry, and I think these people are being on the conservative side. I think it is very positive and I think it is going to help overall. You always hear about these 2-year-old consignors who get these horses down to them in October and they are 100 pounds lighter than they were in August and September. “

To be fair Finley was more balanced in his response than I initially perceived. But, that's why we have our dialogue.

Now on to Saratoga for some more wheelin and dealin.


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