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-   -   Expert opinions - Hatta Fort odds? (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=22959)

Scav 06-03-2008 11:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
I said second choice at absolute worst. I can see Prussian taking a lot of money. Maybe not enough to be favorite, but we'll see.

Honestly, I will be surprised to see him in this race, when do you see Mott come back off 12 days....almost never

NoLuvForPletch 06-03-2008 11:52 AM

It'll be interesting to see how CD's stablemate runs. Might give us some insight on what to expect from CD.

Interesting read in the POST yesterday.

http://www.nypost.com/seven/06022008...ilt_113590.htm

NoLuvForPletch 06-03-2008 12:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
Didn't he already run here?

Yes, he ran in the Peter Pan.

I was thinking if he ran huge on the turf that these guys from Japan may be a little smarter than we are giving them credit for. The works for Casino Drive are a funny read right now. But if Spark Candle runs like those horses in Australia did I'm thinking it might not be all smoke and mirrors.

Strategic Mission 06-03-2008 12:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NoLuvForPletch
Yes, he ran in the Peter Pan.

I was thinking if he ran huge on the turf that these guys from Japan may be a little smarter than we are giving them credit for. The works for Casino Drive are a funny read right now. But if Spark Candle runs like those horses in Australia did I'm thinking it might not be all smoke and mirrors.

It isn't smoke and mirrors regardless of how the horse runs on Friday. They are training for a 12f race. The Japanese know what they are doing. You don't run 1-2 in the Melbourne cup if you don't know what you are doing. Might not matter though if Big Brown is that good, but Casino Drive will run a big race, basically because he has the 12f pedigree and a great foundation.

dalakhani 06-03-2008 12:55 PM

Was Gomez booted off of Hatta Fort or was the switch to gio ponte by choice? Anyone know?

the_fat_man 06-03-2008 01:02 PM

I'm thinking that Clement didn't get enough with GP getting blocked the length of the stretch in the BC, and Gomez blowing a ton of rides on the BEL TURF by INSISTING on riding the rail (including at least one for Clement, off the top of my head).

This is a nice jockey change.:rolleyes:

dalakhani 06-03-2008 01:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_fat_man
I'm thinking that Clement didn't get enough with GP getting blocked the length of the stretch in the BC, and Gomez blowing a ton of rides on the BEL TURF by INSISTING on riding the rail (including at least one for Clement, off the top of my head).

This is a nice jockey change.:rolleyes:

I dont think it was a bad change either way. I just know that Gomez rides first call for these guys in the states (or did). I always find it interesting on how these rider changes come about. Not to say that if a rider makes a change it means that much but it CAN be a piece to the puzzle. I would think that Godolphin is a more important client than Clement but if he got booted he had no choice.

blackthroatedwind 06-03-2008 01:28 PM

For what it's worth, the listed odds for Friday's races have been taken down from the race cards for now. The next line you see should be more accurate.

Antitrust32 06-03-2008 01:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Strategic Mission
It isn't smoke and mirrors regardless of how the horse runs on Friday. They are training for a 12f race. The Japanese know what they are doing. You don't run 1-2 in the Melbourne cup if you don't know what you are doing. Might not matter though if Big Brown is that good, but Casino Drive will run a big race, basically because he has the 12f pedigree and a great foundation.


you mean from his two career starts?

brockguy 06-03-2008 01:52 PM

Hatta Fort has got top class form here, 5-1 would be a gift if you got it..

blackthroatedwind 06-03-2008 01:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brockguy
Hatta Fort has got top class form here, 5-1 would be a gift if you got it..


He's going to be under 2:1.

Scav 06-03-2008 01:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
He's going to be under 2:1.

Should be under even money as far as I am concerned

parsixfarms 06-03-2008 01:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_fat_man
I'm thinking that Clement didn't get enough with GP getting blocked the length of the stretch in the BC, and Gomez blowing a ton of rides on the BEL TURF by INSISTING on riding the rail (including at least one for Clement, off the top of my head).

So saving ground on the turf is a bad thing? Seems Bailey made a pretty good living doing exactly the same thing. Sometimes, the hole doesn't open, and the jock will "look bad," but in the long run, the rider is giving his horse a better chance to win. It sure beats being 3-4 wide and losing all that ground.

blackthroatedwind 06-03-2008 02:05 PM

Right, but glueing yourself to the fence is very dangerous. I prefer Cornelio Velasquez's style of being in the two path. It gives you more options while still saving ground.

the_fat_man 06-03-2008 02:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by parsixfarms
So saving ground on the turf is a bad thing? Seems Bailey made a pretty good living doing exactly the same thing. Sometimes, the hole doesn't open, and the jock will "look bad," but in the long run, the rider is giving his horse a better chance to win. It sure beats being 3-4 wide and losing all that ground.

It's RELATIVE. It's definitely the way to go on tight turn, hard surface courses where NOTHING comes back. On wide sweeping courses, like BEL, where getting a clear run is the most important thing a jock can do, it's NOT the way to go.

Gomez is riding perfectly for HOL. Problem is, he's at BEL.

brockguy 06-03-2008 02:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
He's going to be under 2:1.

grand so
note to self, dont treat scav's comments as gospel :)

Scav 06-03-2008 02:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brockguy
grand so
note to self, dont treat scav's comments as gospel :)

I never said 5/1, that was PG1985 that did, I said 3/5.....

hockey2315 06-03-2008 02:15 PM

He won't be 3/5


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