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After the initial phase of establishing a base figure from the running times (+/- variant effect), there are nuances that each individual figure maker may utilize in their formulation. Weight, ground loss, wind effect, etc., can make up the 10% 'art' if you're allowing for the 90% science.
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It's that 10% "art" that makes all figures, in the end, highly-educated opinions.
If a calculated number comes back that seems off in the opinion and experience of the figure maker, it's adjusted. That makes a human mind and opinion the final assessment of a performance to ensure the figures make logical sense. That is opinion (granted, an extremely experienced one).
Figure makers will even adjust previously given numbers weeks later based upon subsequent performance - so the figures within a PP fit their experienced perceptions of the quality of the previous and subsequent performances of the field.
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When Jerry Brown wrote that the Derby was relatively easy to make figures for, he means that once he established a fig for the top two finishers,
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As soon as the race finished, before he even looked at the figures, didn't he announce it was the best Derby figure earned by a horse, ever? Rags disagrees (I think), Beyer disagrees.
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Figures are never "an educated opinion",
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Guess we'll just have to disagree. I think figures are obviously always a highly educated opinion. Handicappers choose which opinion they think most accurate (TG, Sheets, Beyer, etc) and there are still guys that make their own. |
