Scav -- I like the horse a bit, based on everything I've seen and everything I've heard. He's definitely not my favorite, but just from where I'm sitting, he just has that feel to me, much like SNS two years ago. Obviously they came in differently, but he is just starting to seem like that horse that everyone is talking about, projecting a good race in his next, loving his AR Derby and saying it was better than it looked -- if the horse runs a lick in a workout over the CD surface you can kiss a fair price goodbye. Happens every year, and I'm just getting a gut feeling that he's your guy this year. His wins have by and large come with sickeningly sweet setups, and that's my main knock on him, but his style is right and he's going to be one of the go-to horses for sheet players.

To me, looks like the pace meltdown scenario is about to unfold in which case I think I would take Colonel John, Pyro, Visionaire, and Court Vision, but with so much time between now and the derby, I'll probably change my mind 500 times. It's probably a little too pat though to think that it will be all closer types. Some stalker type will have to be this year's Closing Argument. Might be Smooth Air. Maybe all those long works will payoff for him.

My five would be Big Brown, Colonel John, War Pass, Eight Belles, and Court Vision.

Right now:

Smooth Air
Z Fortune
Pyro
Adriano
Visionare

For me it would be

War Pass
Pyro
Colonel John
Z Fortune
Monba

pyro question from a newby!
 

Just a simple question from a rather new guy to the sport.
Does anyone think that pyro might have been held up a little on purpose, knowing that he did not need to push at all to make the field of 20 ,and possibly saving his best for may 3rd? I watched his last race and I know this was defintly not the Pyro of several weeks ago. I am fairly new to the game guys and gals so please forgive the newby questions!

He obviously didn't need to win, so there was no use in going all out on him once it became clear he wasn't going to run a lick.

However, I can't imagine he got anything out of it -- so while Bridgmohan didn't need to have the horse use everything up trying to win, it wouldn't make much sense to hold him back to the point where he's not getting anything out of it anyway. It that were the case, they may as well just have trained him up to the Derby and gotten more out of it.

So my humble opinion, is that I highly doubt that was the original plan, but it turned out that the rider didn't carry on with him once it was obvious that he was going nowhere fast.

I would take that $20, skip the box, and play a $4 part wheel of

Big Brown over
Smooth Air, Colonel John

and a $2 part wheel of

Big Brown over
War Pass, Z Fortune, Cool Coal Man, Visionaire, Pyro, and the one who runs the best in the Lexington (whomever that is).

Yeah he is taking a trick out of the matties family book. He just wants a bigger price on Derby day.

Do you know Greg?

I play golf with him sometimes.

No

Just to say hello

I can't imagine Z-fortune being any lower than 20-1. That Arkansas Derby field was atrocious, and getting beat by Gayego is nothing to write home about.
As of now, I really think the 3 likely morning line favorites are the only horses that have a legit shot to win. I'm sure I'll change my mind plenty in the next 2 weeks, however.

Smooth Air will be the most honest horse in the Derby. He may not be good enough, and he may not want the 1 1/4, but he will run his eyeballs out everytime hes lead to post. Still hoping for another step up from him but do not think its impossible.

Z Fortune should be named JF Fortune.

Q)Whats the difference between Court Vision with Blinkers and without?

A)About 50 bucks.

Hes still a slow crow.

Thanks Brian!
 

Thanks for entertaining a new guys question!
Well Pyro will be in my picks in some form of an exotic. I am not sure how I will play him yet but think that he is worth giving another go. My other early picks are also Coronal John, Z Fortone, Big Brown and Gayego

If it were not for the fact that Atoned is running only two weeks before the derby he would be in there also but I think he is being pushed to hard to make the field. To bad they wouldnt just same him up for the Preakness!

That latest work by Court Vision caught my attention as well as some friends of mine who are pretty sharp handicappers. Court Vision has won at Churchill, so the fine work reaffirms his affinity for the surface. The blinkers added factor is an interesting twist. If you take jockey Garrett Gomez at his word, he claims that Court Vision never got hold of the wet fast Aqueduct surface, you have to think the race helped the horse by running a 1 1/8 for conditioning purposes. His FOY was a race where he was too far back to make an impact but ran third nonetheless.

The Derby will come down to pace. Big Brown, War Pass, Gayego, the Rousell horse should ensure an honest pace. How Court Vision runs with blinkers is unknown. Horses can mature in a hurry between the major preps and the Derby. Look back at Charismatic. 4th place finisher behind Indian Charlie in the SA Derby. He runs a hole in the wind in the Lexington and carried that over to the Triple Crown races.

This whole Court Vision thing is pissing me off. He was an absolute toss to me before the blinker work but now I'm having second thoughts. I'll still probably toss him though.

He still might be a toss. But Mott adding blinks, Mott never known for fast works has a horse do it on own. If he becomes the wise guy horse he's a toss, I think he'll be 15-1 or more. The Derby is a confusing race. Once the posts are drawn it might be easier to conceptualize how the pace will be.
Maybe at that point things will be a bit clearer.

Since you are a new guy, I can understand why you think this. But not that many years ago, two weeks out was a typical time for the last prep. Many horses prepped even later - the Bluegrass S was 10 days out and the Derby Trial really was a trial for the Derby, first on the Tuesday 4 days out, then on the previous Saturday, 7 days out. You go far enough back and the Derby and Preakness were on consecutive Saturdays.

Overseas, trainers still race their charges this way; the last qualifying race for the Melbourne Cup is on the Saturday before the Cup on the First Tuesday in November. Horses not infrequently run twice during the 5 days of Royal Ascot and run well - Baddam won both the big long distance handicaps (2.5 miles and 2.75 miles) a couple of years back. Just today, I saw a mare win a 2-mile hurdle race pulling away, after she won a similar race for mares only YESTERDAY.

I don't see how any of this is relevant. This isn't the 70s and we're talking about American dirt horses. Horses DON'T run every week or two now. They are much more fragile animals. Atoned would have no shot in the derby anyways because he's slow and just not very good (although, he can win today against a pretty bad group). To say Atoned wouldn't have trouble coming back to run in the derby two weeks from now because Man O' War and Australian jumpers could do it is quite laughable.