Thanks Steve, you always need luck in this race and this year even more. If you covered the entire field and anybody but Big Brown, Colonel John or Pyro wins.....you should show a profit. Hell, that's the way my late dad use to do it! :)

I think the thing with zfortune that woke me up was his post position in the Ark derby. I rememeber reading a story that when smarty was going for the 5mil bonus after he left from 11 i think in the ark derby and won,granted he rolled in that race, the owners of Oaklawn strated getting nervous and while he didn't win he put in a pretty good race i think. would think that he will have pretty good odds and may liven things up in the exotics. Another thing to think about is that everyone is going to be talking about Pyro and how many times have we seen where a trainer has some horses in and everyone gets on the "one" and the others are left out it is sometimes that other horse that runs big. I can think of real quiet=indian charlie? and peace rules=empire maker. What do i know just food for thought.

I ran this scenario through my head this afternoon. Prado will probably stay on Tale of Ekati for the Derby. What if Pletcher has Johnny V ride Monba and have Luzzi (or similar jock) on Cowboy Cal just to add to the early pace (rabbit). Just something to think about. I've been a fan of Monba since his allowance win at CD and this could be his best chance in a wide open Derby.

I like SH's dozen at this point, but will wait for the CD workouts/Draw to make final decision. Of course, then you have how the track is playing on Derby day to deal with.

In the sheets era of bad efforts being good and great efforts being bad he is looking better all the time

I'm not sure Cannon - I don't pretend to be Lenny Friedman or Jerry Brown - but wouldn't Z Fortune be a big "bounce" candidate?

I don't have his sheet numbers - but he'd run Beyers of 87 and 82 in the Risen Star and Rebel - and soared to a 102 Beyer (with a very wide trip) that is a significant new top.

As I recall, when a 3yo with just six career starts runs a big new top, and has just three weeks rest between starts, he's a high percentage bounce candidate.

I know I've heard a few Ragozin Sheet experts (Hardoon) say that Big Brown actually has a good pattern going into the Derby. He was supposed to bounce in the Fla Derby - but made a slight forward move instead - and goes into the race with five weeks rest.

I'm not exactly one who buys into this stuff anyway.

I'm not sure that Z Fortune ran a big top last out. He was pretty fast early in the year. I dont know how anyone can say BB's pattern is anything since he has run so infrequently to actually have a pattern

I'm just going by what I heard the Ragozin Sheets John Hardoon say about BB and his Derby pattern.

He's supposed to be an expert at that stuff - I happen to think it's mostly nonsense.

Where do you stand on that?

Prado's agent said today that EP would be on Monba or Adriano and that Tagg has already been informed that he will not be aboard Tale of Ekati.

NT

I think that they used to be cutting edge and gave those guys a big edge. Nowdays the edge they have is small or doesnt even exist especially since pace is not incorporated into the numbers (supposedly). Just as Beyers are raw numbers that are adjusted based upon different peoples interpretation of the race with little to no regard for pace, trips, surface, post position, etc, they both have flaws and in a world where there is so much information available they dont stand out to me.

Hmmmm... Interesting

While I don't like Monba's chances to win and feel like the race is a two-horse contest between Big Brown and Colonel John, I can't find any reason to make fun of anyone else's choices. Even those two have big question marks and in the most wide open Derby I can recall, no choices can be any more ridiculous than any others. Now, if he really likes Monba and isn't just going with him to be different, that's fine. But if he's just going with him to go away from popular opinion, that doesn't make much sense to me.

I was looking more for your opinions and where you stand on the validity of sheet figure patterns and form cycles.

Big Brown a good pattern, only a Ragozin guy would say that.

As far as Z Fortune, give me a second....

BB ran a negative 3 and half via Thorograph message board which is a huge top.

As for Z Fortune, his last race was a bounce off two pairs with good numbers. It would be my guess that Gayego is within that negative range or at least '1' thus making him a huge play against. If Gayego did run that big, then Z Fortune got back to his top in the Ark Derby, thus making him a real good play in the Derby.

Going with Monba is absolutely insane BUT I'll give Haskin credit, he sure as hell got us talking.

Monba's two big races were his maiden win, and now the Bluegrass, he is truly a synethic lover, try and watch the races next to each other(dirt vs synthetic) and see the difference in the way he runs.

Picking the Derby winner this year can no more amount to spinning the wheel and hoping it lands on your number, I give Haskin some credit for creativity. Beats picking Pyro or Big Brown.

Btw if Giacomo made no sense winning the derby I can't wait to this year. A total guess if you ask me.

There probably is some validity to form cycles and patterns if the numbers are fairly accurate. Of course sometimes the numbers are off which can lead to a false interpretation of the pattern.

Monba is regarded as Pletcher's best chance - and that alone will contribute to him being significantly overbet.

There are horses with better chances who will be bigger prices.

like cowboy cal and court vision

No