Derby Trail Forums - THANK GOD: KEENELAND racing is BACK

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- - THANK GOD: KEENELAND racing is BACK (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=21310)

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

For the typical SPEED oriented player this is an anomaly. Horses wiring the field as the way things should be is both counterintuitive and contrary to natural laws. In any reasonably related event, cycling, for example, for someone to wire the field, they need to be MUCH BETTER than the field. The same is true on fair turf courses and poly (excepting the mess out at SA for those early few weeks).
Horses that have had the advantage of drafting will have a better chance to win. More moves in a race means that the race has a higher likelyhood of falling apart. Do away with the wide-without-cover trip, that most US jockeys think is just fine, and you actually have competitive YET fair races. What you guys think is an unfair closers 'bias' is actually just about the fairest racing there is out there. And not remotely related to the 'bias' at AQU this winter (or that at KEE before poly).

You make good points and in fairness to Keeneland the sample size of races is on the light side. Pace makes the race is not only a cliche but is a fact.
Your point about drafting makes sense and there are countless times that a horse will sit in 3rd or 4th within a few off the pace and edge outside in the stretch and blow by the tiring front runners.

In terms of the Aqueduct inner speed bias I do not believe it was there for the most part. I might be wrong about the lack of an extreme bias but I do know that the horses which ran this winter were the weakest I've seen in years who raced daily at a NY track.

keeneland is a nice meet. The info is high quality. I guess you could trip it the same you trip any turf meet, and the surface is nice and consistent for that. The big money has been with the surface bias since the changover. You have a surface that favors a different pedigree and running style than dirt does. When they first switched over it was bananas, because the trainers didn't even know what the hell they were doing and every other race seemed like huge trifectas and supers. Now the trainers have somewhat caught on, and that means the value has been cut a little, but you still get horses mis placed and instances where the public is betting against the grain.

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

You must be a NYRA supporter. There are other ways to win races than speed on the rail.

But is there a way to win at Kee without going very wide and closing? Kee is no more fair than it was when they had real dirt.

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Prussian won the G3 Summer S. at Woodbine. . . It was worth $251,600 (I think that's in USD). He has about $151K in graded earnings with a 60% share of the purse- but I know what you're thinking- no way he goes to the derby.

i am thinking that, i have a new derby horse....

PRUSSIAN

I thought Candian earning didn't count?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan07

I thought Candian earning didn't count?

you could be right, if they dont then he has no shot

Tomcito's earnings from Peru count so I would assume Prussian's do. . . but he WON'T go to the derby. . .

I followed the Keeneland fall meet and enjoyed it. I thought the track played fair and consistent. Keeneland did it right with their track overhaul. NYRA take note.

1 through 4 sound great. 5? I wouldn't call it fair. It is kind of the reverse of the Aqueduct inner.

As for drafting, there is little evidence there is anything but a very minimal advantage to it with horses. It isn't cycling.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan07

I thought Candian earning didn't count?

With a weakening American dollar against the Canadian dollar, are those earnings worth more now than they were 6 months ago? :D

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Here's a newsflash, Doof,

I don't play AQU inner

too easy to cash at FG, TAM, and the rest, over the winter

So take your "easy money" and stop whining. Nice cycling analogy, it has nothing to do with horse racing though.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bigsmc

6) Hoovesupsideyourhead owns the place.

THAT IS THE MOST IMPORTANT ONE !!!!!!!!!!!!!

Quote:

Originally Posted by 2 Dollar Bill

THAT IS THE MOST IMPORTANT ONE !!!!!!!!!!!!!

I'll second that!! Was handing out crazy price horses last year. It's funny because it was right around the time I joined here and I kept thinking...Wow!! This guy has it going!