I agree. Still foggy and early.
I like Denis of Cork, not sure if he will be a big time horse or just a nice horse... I give him a little slack for that last race. With the track being off, Borel kind of sacraficed his usuall style to just win the race. Borel felt he was much the best, and he did the job, although it was workman-like and not flashy. I think it would have appeared much more impressive had the track been fast. Borel supposedly has commited to Turf War, and a jockey choice would be key for DoC. Who else can time and rally so well as Borel? Leparoux isn't terrible, but is he a Derby jockey?

To answer the last part, I think Leparoux is a Derby jockey and last I heard he will be on Court Vision when he returns and that is his mount indefinitely.

NT

thanks ! good info. They seem to be a pretty good fit.

I think Check It Twice was a HORRIBLE exclusion.

He has all kinds of these little positive progression angles going for him.

* The 97 Beyer (which is 7 points higher than Court Vision's top) came for trainer Kathleen O'Connell. Isn't it very likely Pletcher will improve off O'Connell?

* Does any horse in the crop really have a Classic distance pedigree that is any better than his?...

By Repent (a son of a Preakness winner who was 2nd in the Travers off a layoff longer than Bellamy Road's and with just, I believe, two or three published works in him)

Out of a dam who was 10-4-2-2 and made six figures in route races, while running nice figures. The 2nd dam is 3 time Grade 1 winner Christmas Past, who won a Grade 1 over males in the '83 Gulfstream Park handicap.

* After running 2nd at 7 furlongs in its debut (to the longshot 2nd place finisher in last weekends Swale) - this guy has four two-turn route races under him. With that kind of foundation in him....Pletcher doesn't have to rush him and keep him on such a tight schedule.

The knock I have, is that Calder is a real tiring surface and sometimes horses who thrive over it won't fully reproduce their good form on much more glib dirt tracks. It's not that a track profile favored him at Calder, because it's as speed friendly as it is laboring...and speed isn't this horses game.

All in all ... he was a lousy exclusion. Especially with him running this weekend...and bettors having a chance to watch his race.

He is my top choice right now too, although I agree with the others that it seems very probable (more probable than in years past) that the winner of this year's Kentucky Derby is not on this list.

He would certainly have been a better selection than Georgie Boy.

My wallet hopes you're right.

No doubt.

You and Scavs will need to explain to me what I'm missing with Anak Nakal....

I would be in a state of shock if he wins the Derby. He got a dream trip from the garden spot behind three horses going too fast in the KY Jockey Club. The final 5/16ths of that race was run in 31.60 - by comparison, a 2yo filly MSW race on the same card, at the same distance, produced a final 5/16ths in a faster 30.77.

Even with all going his own way - his Beyer was only in the 80's - and he's almost 10 points slower than Giacomo was as a 2yo .. and unlike Giacomo, his big fig came with things going his way ... as opposed to earning it with a legit trip.

Did they ask him?

They have included non nominees, and got their heads handed to them for doing so.

Check it Twice should be on the list.

Todd sounded more likely to go to dirt with Cowboy Cal a month or so ago when his only major dirt colt was Monba. Now that he has a couple moe to deal with he is less likely to use CC on dirt. Thus CC doesn't look like a great choice either. As for Georgie Boy, do the selectors not follow the maiden and allowance programs at GP/FG/SA at all? That's the best they could come up with?

Check it Twice is nominated.

Why?

Saw it on his facebook page..

Me too! :D

That 97 BSF was, I believe, the highest figure for a 2 yo going 2 turns on a fast track.

I like him a lot too. Heard he's no go for the FG race.

All this Dennis of Cork and Anak Nakal stuff I just don't get.

They ran a ton of 2yo races that day at Churchill - and the filly sprinter American County flat out stole the show from the 2yo races that day.

She ran six furlongs in 1:08 2/5ths and a few races later Dennis Of Cork won his debut in 1:22 2/5ths - basically, AC running a raw Beyer figure 17 points faster than DofC.

There were more than a few horses who earned themselves A LOT of hype on that card - for running races that make themselves look like slowpokes by comparison with American County's race that day.

I thought it was flat out comical they excluded Check It Twice. He was going to be my only play this weekend and for him not to be included is a joke with his credentials.

There's always way too much hype for the " they won at Churchill " horses. However, it's a better year than most to be unproven and on the cusp of being slow. I'm not so sure about Anak Nakal but I know someone that's very high on him. We'll see.

I'm confused by Check it Twice. His races prior to his last were OK but nothing special and considering what we've seen from Coal Play in his last two I'm really not sure what to make of the race. Maybe Check It Twice exists in a bubble, but to me there is more contrary evidence to him than positive. However, I agree with you that Pletcher rates to move him up.....but for how long? However, at least he has one possibly fast race, which is more than you can say for most 3YOs getting hype these days.