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-   -   Aqueduct - 11/29 (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=18450)

Payson Dave 11-29-2007 01:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
I don't see Noble Fire at all. Her second race was horrendous and being that it was six weeks after her debut I don't understand how even if you believe in bounce ( which I don't ) you could suggest that. I think it is more a situation of yet another unreliable 5F race. We've seen many of them.

Jovanna may win, but the scratch helps Palmetto Bluffs and if Jovanna and Palmetto Bluffs go at it then Anlyn can win.
Educate me here....how was that race horrendous...she broke from an outside post...got hooked early... 1st qtr went in .22&1...got beat a length...in a Statebred 100k Stake

blackthroatedwind 11-29-2007 01:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Payson Dave
Educate me here....how was that race horrendous...she broke from an outside post...got hooked early... 1st qtr went in .22&1...got beat a length...in a Statebred 100k Stake

It was a terrible field that she looked to have over a barrel at 3:5. This is a tougher group. I agree that the first quarter was reasonably fast but she had a soft outside stalking position and in my opinion lost to extremely weak horses. To me the three I mentioned are all potentially better than anyone in her last race.

pmacdaddy 11-29-2007 01:47 PM
Sure glad I passed on the pick6 as I used first two winners as cover horses, but not on the same ticket.

Now, even if I blow my pick4's I will still save a good chunk of change....

blackthroatedwind 11-29-2007 01:53 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by pmacdaddy
Sure glad I passed on the pick6 as I used first two winners as cover horses, but not on the same ticket.

Now, even if I blow my pick4's I will still save a good chunk of change....

The board didn't lie about Contessa there either.

declansharbor 11-29-2007 02:04 PM
Egypt Lane in the 7th. Worth a shot here with Bravo up. Hope she doesn't hang!!

pmacdaddy 11-29-2007 02:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
The board didn't lie about Contessa there either.
Yeah. Once I saw Contessa left him in I was concerned about going too hard against him. I went back and weighted him evenly with the MTO in my pick4 plays.

Not that going 2 deep to get a $4.80 winner is anything to brag about...

blackthroatedwind 11-29-2007 02:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by pmacdaddy
Yeah. Once I saw Contessa left him in I was concerned about going too hard against him. I went back and weighted him evenly with the MTO in my pick4 plays.

Not that going 2 deep to get a $4.80 winner is anything to brag about...
No, but at least you covered.

I pretty much singled the winner in a small play. I used 3, 4, and 9 in the 7th.

pmacdaddy 11-29-2007 02:18 PM
7th I have coverage to - 1,,3,4,6,7

Rudeboyelvis 11-29-2007 02:21 PM
3rd Race
 
Hill - Hushion angle again...getting nice value still, (12.40) something to consider

pmacdaddy 11-29-2007 02:30 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis
Hill - Hushion angle again...getting nice value still, (12.40) something to consider
Missed that one (only capped last 6). Maybe I have not paid enough attention before, but I don't recall those two clicking at this rate in the past.

Payson Dave 11-29-2007 02:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
No, but at least you covered.

I pretty much singled the winner in a small play. I used 3, 4, and 9 in the 7th.
nice a $24 winner has got to add value to your ticket

blackthroatedwind 11-29-2007 02:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Payson Dave
nice a $24 winner has got to add value to your ticket

Thanks.....and now I look forward to Noble Fire eliminating me.

I used 1, 3 and 4 in the 8th.

Payson Dave 11-29-2007 02:47 PM
not gonna saya word....

pmacdaddy 11-29-2007 02:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Payson Dave
nice a $24 winner has got to add value to your ticket
Nice call there! What made you use him going away from Dutrow? I think I may discount those a bit too much. A tough line to walk...

Pick4 is shaping up a lot like yesterday. Hope the MTO took a ton of cash in the pool and you are onto a good parlay. Have to think Anlyn would help the cause immensely.

Payson Dave 11-29-2007 02:55 PM
I'm live in the pic3 to the 1, 6, & 9

pmacdaddy 11-29-2007 02:58 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Payson Dave
I'm live in the pic3 to the 1, 6, & 9
Good luck!

Any in the last create a Carry?

Payson Dave 11-29-2007 03:16 PM
not even close....



crinkle...



crinkle...




Trash can....

blackthroatedwind 11-29-2007 03:17 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Payson Dave
not gonna saya word....

You don't have to. Nobody got more punished by that particular bad opinion of mine than I did. The Pick-4 paid over 4 dimes and I obviously used the last winner. Unfortunately I bet 20% today of what I bet on him last time.

blackthroatedwind 11-29-2007 03:19 PM
It's actually sadly ironic......I misjudged the 8th winner's last race and you made a similar mistake with the 9th winner. Take a very good luck at his race two back.

We both phucked up.

Payson Dave 11-29-2007 03:20 PM
102k Carry-over tomorrow


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