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-   -   BC Day 2 Plays (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=17658)

Cannon Shell 10-26-2007 08:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
Honestly on a firm turf I think he has no shot. But it is and will be a bog. Speed looked like it was tiring very bad on the turf today and Gomez is overly patient if anything. He has a shot.

I think speed tired on in the juvy because the pace was fast despite Trevors call. They went the second half slower than the 1st which is not like usual on turf.

miraja2 10-26-2007 08:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell
Dont forget in 14 horse fields money is spreadout hence the longer than usual odds. I think Remarkable News is really bred for a soft turf.

He is a bit interesting.
In his last start he didn't look like the same horse that ran at Pimlico and CD this spring, but the manner in which he gave way down the stretch looked like the classic case of a horse just needing a race. He certainly could be a factor.

Cannon Shell 10-26-2007 08:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by miraja2
He is a bit interesting.
In his last start he didn't look like the same horse that ran at Pimlico and CD this spring, but the manner in which he gave way down the stretch looked like the classic case of a horse just needing a race. He certainly could be a factor.

I was actually just baiting because his breeding is totally obscure to all except Johan Santana and Hugo Chavez. I woul like him if you cut his post in half. Though if he leaves hard and other take back may be sitting third while not too wide on first turn. Impossibly tough race.

miraja2 10-26-2007 08:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by justindew
Not necessarily. I haven't bet much at all since the Belmont Stakes. Just a few Pick 6s and some plays on Travers Day. Maybe a few other days here and there. Plus, the NFL has been good to me this year.

I really like Street Sense as well. But I am splitting the money I am betting on that race between a straight win bet on him, and an exacta box with him and Curlin.
Curlin still scares me.

miraja2 10-26-2007 08:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell
Impossibly tough race.

Couldn't agree more.

Cannon Shell 10-26-2007 08:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by miraja2
Couldn't agree more.

I cant figure out how it will be run and the field is so close together...

I hate Dylan Thomas but cant come up with anything there either...except No Fri Guy or Transduction Gold.

Cannon Shell 10-26-2007 08:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by miraja2
I really like Street Sense as well. But I am splitting the money I am betting on that race between a straight win bet on him, and an exacta box with him and Curlin.
Curlin still scares me.

Street Sense by a neck over AGS with Curlin making a too late, Easy Goer type move for third

The Indomitable DrugS 10-26-2007 08:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell
I think Remarkable News is really bred for a soft turf.

Wow.....this explanation ought to be good.

His obscure sire Chayim's biggest accomplishment was being the sales topper at the '92 Barretts March 2yo sale - and winning a couple dirt sprints in southern Cal.

The dam was by the sire Alhajras (who never hit the board in two lifetime starts) and was 2-for-12 racing in the hotbed of thoroughbred stardom that is Hugo Chavez land.

His 2nd dam Inspiring was a hopeless Slew O' Gold who never ran first or second from seven tries.

I think Remarkable News' breeding is just plain soft.

The Indomitable DrugS 10-26-2007 08:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell
I was actually just baiting because his breeding is totally obscure to all except Johan Santana and Hugo Chavez.

And now I see I took the bait.


Thanks for wasting my time.....


It's not like I had anything better to do on a Friday night I guess.

justindew 10-26-2007 08:57 PM

This might be the first time that one of my posts hasn't turned into a battle of personal attacks between two other DTers within the first 20 replies.

miraja2 10-26-2007 08:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell
I cant figure out how it will be run and the field is so close together...

I hate Dylan Thomas but cant come up with anything there either...except No Fri Guy or Transduction Gold.

I am going to toss Better Talk Now and the two you mentioned and use the other five in the late pick-3. I think the rain makes Shamdinan a potential threat, despite his last two dull efforts.

Cannon Shell 10-26-2007 08:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
It was fast, you're right. Speed came back in the other turf race too though. Could have just been closers were better anyway. Either way, value wise, it's probably the race of the day. And I agree, very tough to gauge.

Value is the most misused word in the betting lexicon. Value is only important when you win. The races with the most value are the ones you get more money back in than you put in. Betting on losers who are good prices will get you broke in a hurry. If you love a horse and his price is too short and there are no exotic plays that make sense, skip the race. Too many guys go against the horse they think will win because they dont like his price. The horse they like wins, they lose but they feel good about themselves because the got value. Makes no sense. That is the Cannon Shell betting editorial of week.





I say this because i can already see me sitting there with $500 worth of losing tickets after this race saying...you know I shoulda had that....

Cannon Shell 10-26-2007 09:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by miraja2
I am going to toss Better Talk Now and the two you mentioned and use the other five in the late pick-3. I think the rain makes Shamdinan a potential threat, despite his last two dull efforts.

I keep having this vision of BTN 10 wide passing them all...makes no sense but who the **** knows this year...

I also had a vision that it was going to rain at this BC though I thought it may be cold too...passed up freebie tickets... best call of the year

Cannon Shell 10-26-2007 09:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
Thanks for the lesson.

May the force be with you...

The Indomitable DrugS 10-26-2007 09:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
Thanks for the lesson.

I was hoping for a Hossy training editorial for the week.....


all this time I could have been sending desperate text messages to Emily begging for her to give me a 7th chance.

justindew 10-26-2007 09:05 PM

I'm a little surprised that I have not heard anyone pick Nashoba's Key or Octave tomorrow. But then again, I haven't been listening that closely.

The Indomitable DrugS 10-26-2007 09:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
The weeks not over.

Of that I am thankfull.


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