Couldn't agree more. I've seen more "bounces" happen due to those 2 especially the latter that I find it hard to believe a horse coming off two months rest to be a canidate to run badly because of that previous effort.

I asked a guy who uses sheets to claim horses a question last fall when outside horses were winning everything at Keeneland (you couldnt be too wide). What about all the ground lost in these poly races where the inside is horrible and the horses will be getting numbers higher than they should because of the way the track plays? He laughed and said turn the sheet upside down on the poly.

In the Sprint, I agree Baffert's horse put in a monster race last out. However, I think this could possibly be a very different animal going 6 rather than 7. If he walks over the field by open lengths, so be it. Wouldn't be the first time I am wrong at the track, LOL.

I am the first to admit that I am biased, but I am pulling for Smokey Stover.

Eric

Is anyone old enough to remember when people used to watch races and read the form and decide for themselves whether or not they wanted to include a horse in their wagering? Personally, you saw Tiago and you liked him and would have added him but because someone else's analysis tells you not to, you won't now? Sounds like you don't have much confidence in your own ability to decipher what you see.

I have plenty of confidence, matter of fact, that is a big flaw in my game because i still haven't hammered the fact in my head that you lose more then you win in this game as far as tickets. And I am not going off someone else's analysis(I refuse to listen to anyone when they give me a horse), I am going off the pattern that I am reading on trusted information, that I have SEEN improve my hits and improve my handicapping. It is no different then trusting what you see in the DRF.

It's very different, unless you are referring to the Beyers. If you are just looking at the racing lines of the horses, you aren't looking at anyone's opinions at all. I complete understand using other sources (Beyers, TG numbers, etc) in addition to your own handicapping but it just seemed a little strange to me to read that there was a horse that you would have played but because someone's system says you shouldn't, you won't. Sticking with Tiago, I wouldn't care if the Beyers said he ran a 135 in the Swaps and a 140 in the Goodwood......I saw those two races. I wouldn't include him under any circumstances whatsoever. Likewise, if I liked him, I wouldn't care if he had earned a 50 and a 60 in his last two.

Obviously, your example doesn't work. If he had run a 135 & 140, you'd have seen two very different races.

It really wouldn't matter to you one iota if a horse had run his last two Beyers that suggested he was nearly 20 lengths faster than the rest of the field, or if that same horse was coming into the race running numbers that would get him beat by 20-30 lengths?

You'd stick with the "I like this horse angle?"

And you're criticizing how Scav comes to a decision?

Crikey.

Not criticizing him at all. I'm certainly no better at this than he or anyone else is. Just asking at what point does trusting your own handicapping ability stop and taking the word of someone else's system take over? If Tiago was running off and hiding from fields by 20 lengths and setting track records in the process of earning those 130's, that would be different. But if after watching him struggle to beat Awesome Gem and knowing what Awesome Gem is, if the number came back really high, I would take it with a grain of salt. I'd do the same thing if I watched Curlin beat Lawyer Ron in the JCGC and the number came back with a 105. The numbers are just based on one man's system of how to judge the races. Not saying that the system is good or bad but it shouldn't take the place of your own handicapping. If your handicapping tells you that you like a horse, don't let someone else tell you that you don't.

Look at the Sprint. I love Midnight Lute. Always have. But I don't like him to win the Sprint, even though by the numbers, he far and away towers over the field. I believe that after his 124 figure, the next highest in the field is a 113 from Idiot Proof. That's a huge advantage. But that advantage won't make me take what I've seen with my own eyes and play a horse that I don't like to win the race.

If BSFs were not part of the PPs, like in the past, Midnight Lute's 124 would really not stick out. That number and Baffert working him in 9 and change wll make him the fave in the Sprint. I am going with the Idiot. Ran a full second faster than Monmouth specialist Joey P did a race earlier on the same card. And since he is a 3 yo, I think he should be improving.

just 3 favorites have won the BC sprint off preps in NY. 15 BCS favorite have prepped at NY. That's 15 of 22, as there were 2 years with no NY prepped horses in the race.

on the other hand, nine BC Sprint winners total have prepped in NY.

If you take a NY chalk in the BC Sprint, you are going to pay a premium.

he may be improving, but the way i look at it is without that one Monmouth race Idiot Proof would not even be considered a contender, so to me there is nothing in the way of confirmation that he is good enough to win this, or that its likely he'll run back to something close to that race. I hate to pick one race out of the PP's and base everything on it, especially a weak looking GR3.
In the Ancient Title Gregs Gold was much the best and Idiot Proof was less than a length in front of Barbeque Eddie, who has only a maiden win to his credit. you may say that he didn't like the cushion track but the fact remains that the beyer from that race was better than all of his dirt beyers save for the Monmouth romp. imo he's not a win candidate.

Everything is fine with Silent Kitty.

There had been rumours that all was not well with him, so i got onto a friend who works in America for Godolphin and he said all is well with him. He sat on him a few days ago and he seemed in very good form with himself.

Having said that, this is what he told me before his last start.

People wanting to bet Discreet Cat for the dirt mile were given a boost today when Godolphin confirmed that Frankie Dettori wouldn't be taking the ride on him.

I think you're on to something here. Especially considering his running style. Other horses (near the lead) can hang on for the win at 6 furlongs.. it's the 7th one that costs them against Midnight Lute. I also think his running style isn't the best for the Monmouth track. I'm looking more at Smokey Stover or Greg's Gold.

I am going with the speed of the speed in Mach Ride

I dont see any way that Mach Ride makes the early lead in this race. There are at least 4 or 5 other horses way faster early.

- Attila's Storm is ALWAYS sent and might be the first to 3f
- Bordonaro
- Commentator
- Idiot Proof
_ La Traviata

Heck, the whole field might be faster than Mach Ride early. I have seen most of his races, being Calder is my home track, and I realize the addition of blinkers has done wonders, but he is overmatched IMO. Maybe he can pick up the pieces for third or fourth.

I will be rooting for Smokey Stover, I like the lighting bolt blaze he has.

Bordonaro, Fred Carrillo , Daniel A. Cassella, William Spawr, Fred Carrillo & Daniel A Cassella

They must have relatives in Oceanport...he gets my vote for finishing last.