Derby Trail Forums - On a serious note

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Quote:

Originally Posted by justindew

You're right. That is a better question, if by "every half hour" you mean "once or twice a week", and if by "same day's betting" you mean "totally different races on different days."

whatever....you present yourself as a pretty self centered person...and then get pissy when people call you on it. Enjoy.

Quote:

Originally Posted by paisjpq

whatever....you present yourself as a pretty self centered person...and then get pissy when people call you on it. Enjoy.

You've never met me. It normally takes people hours of face-to-face time to figure out I am a self-centered person. Pretty impressive of you.

Quote:

Originally Posted by justindew

With my self-imposed, six-hour vacation from betting on the horses coming to an end at the strike of midnight, I have come to the conclusion that it is time for me to completely revamp my game.

About a year ago, I shifted my wagering emphasis away from trying to identify the most likely winner and towards finding the best value. Clearly, something got lost in the transition, because this has been the worst year of my wagering career.

The following example illustrates my year perfectly:

-Ten-horse field
-I identify the 9-5 favorite as the most likely winner.
-I bet the 8-1 fourth choice because I think he should be 4-1.
-The favorite wins and my horse runs 3rd, slightly outrunning his odds.
-All of my tickets are losers.

Now, I know logic dictates that if I am correct in assessing a horse's true odds of winning, I will come out ahead in the long run. But I have to admit that I am not good enough to diferentiate between a horse with a 15% chance of winning, and a horse with a 10% chance of winning. Same for a horse with a 33% chance and one with a 20% chance. You get the idea.

I feel like I was a better bettor when I only bet on horses that I felt were THE most likely winner and also offered value. But it seems to me that most pros and authors will tell you that that is not the way to bet.

I would appreciate some feedback on this.

Value betting is my style. And for it, I've probably lost a lot of $$$ not betting favorites enough, or including them the right way. But it is a patience game- You have to wait, and dump money to find those winning bets. But when you hit them, YOU HIT BIG! It's the way it goes. The strategy is not for everyone, but if you have the pateince to stick with it, I'm sure you'll hit some good ones. Because you're a good enough 'capper to find some diamonds in the rough. Just go with what you're comfortable with, and stick with it. If you have the patience, your good handicapping will shine through in the long-run.

One suggestion though: And when I suggest this, I'll say that I still struggle with this. If the race looks very chalky, pass on betting it, unless you thhink it's easy $$$. But easy money is almost non-existant in this game. So if you don't see any value, DON'T BET IT. I have trouble with this myself, but I'm getting better.

Quote:

Originally Posted by justindew

You've never met me. It normally takes people hours of face-to-face time to figure out I am a self-centered person. Pretty impressive of you.

yes well, I'm gifted.

After today I only bet over/unders and exclusive matchups...

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

After today I only bet over/unders and exclusive matchups...

What's the over/under on the number of days before Andy breaks my balls again?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

After today I only bet over/unders and exclusive matchups...

Just don't bet the Chargers....

Quote:

Originally Posted by justindew

What's the over/under on the number of days before Andy breaks my balls again?

no line. Like when Federer plays in the early rounds.

Like Bobby Knight said..."If it is inevitable...just sit back and enjoy yourself"

Quote:

Originally Posted by geeker2

Just don't bet the Chargers....

Uh... that would be the idea...

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Uh... that would be the idea...

please speak slowly and clearly so that you can be understood...

Quote:

Originally Posted by paisjpq

please speak slowly and clearly so that you can be understood...

Living in San Diego can do that to you...

cmorioles says he thinks this justindew guy needs to get over himself. cmorioles also thinks everyone is playing "value" in one form or another. He says if you love a horse and don't bet him because the horse is 2 to 5, but would play him at 10 to 1, there must be a line in there somewhere that changes the decision. He believes this is true even if you don't know exactly what the number is ahead of time. cmorioles says it is much better on a person mentally to know the number ahead of time. cmorioles is not very smart, however.

Quote:

Originally Posted by cmorioles

4 cmoriorles and 2 he's?....thats just weak.

I can't offer the wisdom of the many of the previous replies as surely some of the respondents have never endured a prolonged losing streak. I, however, have.

If you think your handicapping is at a decent or better level (meaning you are not seeing things that just are not there like overrating trouble and/or convincing yourself that an 8-1 is the most likely winner, etc...) and if you are betting for value (which I interpret as single race win and vertical exotic betting), you should probably move to the multi-race wagers and bet wider. In other words, if you are currrently wagering to hit a trifecta for a $5 unit wager, start wagering DDs and P3s for a lesser unit amount. Also if you are compelled to bet a single race exotic it still makes sense to go wider for lower unit wagers. And, since you are in a prolonged downward trend, it certainly helps to decrease your total wagering $$ by choice.

Deeper and cheaper is the key.

If that doesn't work, take a few weeks off. There are other things. Go see Eastern Promises before it leaves theaters. If you're in South Florida, I highly recommend the Dolphin Swim at the Seaquarium.