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The Indomitable DrugS 08-19-2007 07:31 PM
If Lava Man and Student Council had met on a dirt track today....at level weights no less, do you think the result would have been the same?

The Bid 08-19-2007 07:32 PM
Nobody said they are good, they stink. I just cant stand to see a horse like Lava Man go 115 and not finish. Hes a notorious gamer, especially in Cali, especially when having things his own way. He got a perfect ride and was done mid stretch. Do you think hes better than Student Council?

The Bid 08-19-2007 07:33 PM
Lava Man would have beaten him by 5 or more on the dirt TID

ArlJim78 08-19-2007 07:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
If Lava Man and Student Council had met on a dirt track today....at level weights no less, do you think the result would have been the same?
yes i do, at 10 furlongs, sure. Lava Man has been barely getting it done against horses like APxcellent and Big Booster.

King Glorious 08-19-2007 07:46 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ArlJim78
guys you are all really over estimating how good the west coast horses are,.
Are u suggesting that every listed stakes caliber horse in the Midwest and East could have done this same thing? Are the California horses that bad?

ArlJim78 08-19-2007 08:05 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by King Glorious
Are u suggesting that every listed stakes caliber horse in the Midwest and East could have done this same thing? Are the California horses that bad?
no i'm not suggesting that, that would be dumb.
not every midwest horse has his talent or style, he has been steadily improving for a long time. his sheet numbers for his past two races are zero. the only other horse in the race that also had zeros was Awesome Gem.

ArlJim78 08-19-2007 08:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
Is this a shot at me?
no?
i didn't intend it for a person, i frankly don't remember who it was but i've noticed several people playing both sides of the so called no redboarding rule.

JJP 08-19-2007 08:17 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ArlJim78
i bet on Student Council. i thought he looked good against this group, according to all the speed numbers i looked at. a solid well bred horse heading out to face a softer group? and at those odds? i didn't understand why he was ignored but i'm not complaining.

if you look at his pp's he has the type of runstyle that is good for poly. he runs at a high consistent speed, and he has endurance to boot.

No, I didn't bet him but I like your thinking here. Generally, I do believe Midwest based horses go off at higher odds than they should when they go to EITHER coast.

ArlJim78 08-19-2007 08:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JJP
No, I didn't bet him but I like your thinking here. Generally, I do believe Midwest based horses go off at higher odds than they should when they go to EITHER coast.
thats right, and even though he races for Cerin now, in typical Neil Howard style this horse just kept getting incrementally better with age. If you can compete in Kentucky and Ark with Magna Graduate, Brass Hat, Wanderin Boy, etc you can compete with that group out west today.

Riot 08-19-2007 08:49 PM
If people go to the Thorograph website - this race was the freebee for the week, and the figures and analysis are still up - TG had the exacta, described the handicap division in the west for what it is (weak), and predicted Lava Man once again was a strong underlay.

Round Pen 08-19-2007 08:58 PM
Congradulations Arl Jim at least you got it

cmorioles 08-20-2007 01:04 AM
The racing on this stuff is just an eyesore. I hope others enjoy it, I'll stick to betting dirt and turf races. Between the O'Brien and Pacific Classic, I'm not sure which is the worst G1 I've seen. A photo may pronounce it a dead heat.


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