What 3YO's are above him?

Street Sense
Rags to Riches (although I find it hard to gauge Hard Spun's performance in that race for obvious reasons, I'll say the filly)
Curlin (maybe, not Saturday though)
Any Given Saturday (maybe, though I'd like another shot at him at 1 1/8 with a race under Hard Spun's belt)
Dream Rush (unlikely though I'd like to see those 2 hook up for 7f)
Tiago(not)
Zanjero (not)
NoBiz (not)

Help me out here, because by my calculations, he is at the top of the 3YO class.

Of those who would beat him going a mile

Considering I've not bet him to win in any of these big races so far.....It's not like I've been chasing this horse.

The older horse division is pretty damn weak.

Hard Spun will run much better uncontested than he will stalking--where he tends to get rank...which he even did in his win at Turfway that you mentioned.

Where is his bad race when he's made the lead?

I'd like him a LOT in the BC Mile (dirt OR turf.)

IMO, I'd like him a lot less in either Mile race.

I dont think he can beat Lawyer Ron on the dirt going a mile.

I think he would stand a huge chance against anything in the grass mile

I guess if Ron went in the classic I would like him in the mile dirt.

Why would they run Lawyer Ron in an ungraded mile race? Winning that isn't going to do much for a horse that is already a G1 winner. They might as well take a shot at the Classic before sending him to the shed.

I dont know why they wouldnt. Hes a G1, G2, G3 winner already. Hes going to be 4/5 in the mile, and the distance is a question in the Classic

If Hard Spun is going to get in the winner's circle come BC day(s) it will be on the 26th, going the mile and 70.(actually called the Dirt Mile). If they chose to run him in the Classic, I think he has the stuff to hit the board against the ultra weak older division. He's already proven that he can finish ahead of or at least right there with the "big boys" of his crop.

I believe it was Drugz who pointed it out that his running style would fit the Classic better than the races he's been running in. The Classic wouldnt have the likes of FFClass, Xchanger, Cable Boy, or any other horse that prevented him the early lead. He'd be the one that they'd all try to rope in. In my eyes, with his high cruising speed, only a few of them would be capable of doing such.

Then again, what do I know? I didnt think AGS would hit the board in the Haskell, and look at what he did. Exploded.

BC Classic - 5MM
BC Mile - 1MM

Difference = 4MM reasons why Lawyer Ron will run in the Classic

What do you make for running off the board in the Classic, because thats what he will get if he goes that distance

Breeders’ Cup $5 Million Gross Purse
Example | Purse distribution for a $5,000,000 Breeders’ Cup Championships Race:
Classic
Awards
Official Owner Stallion Foal
Finish Purse Nominator Nominator
1st $2,700,000 $135,000 $135,000
2nd $1,000,000 $50,000 $50,000
3rd $500,000 $25,000 $25,000
4th $255,000
5th $125,000
$4,580,000 $210,000 $210,000
Total = $5,000,000
Additional Nominator Awards to be paid from the Breeders’ Cup Fund, not included
in purse distribution. On a $5,000,000 purse the awards would be:
Official Stallion Foal
Finish Nominator Nominator
4th $12,750 $12,750
5th $6,250 $6,250

Come On, be serious. Who isn't a question in 1 1/4 race on the dirt? Street Sense, that's pretty much it. Maybe they'll let Lava Man hang out in Long Branch on the beach for a few days, blindfolded so he doesn't realize the water is on the wrong side, this way he thinks he is still in California? Is Flashy Bull, the "superhorse" that everyone was screaming about not being worthy of winning the S Foster going to run out of his shoes? Papi Chullo? He'sanoldsalt? The head case Corinthian? Actually right now the top 5 points earners for the Classic are Curlin, Street Sense, Hard Spun, Any Given Saturday, and Tiago. There aren't any good horses anymore, which is precisely why he'll run in the Classic.

I guess we will wait to Breeders Cup day for me to come back in here and say I told you they were better off going to the mile.

Amid all the discussion of how Hard Spun ran such a fast race in the Ky Derby, no one brought up that there was a :26 quarter in the middle of that race from the 3/4 to the mile. Shouldn't he have had a bit left for the stretch drive.

There's just nothing about the way this horse has finished any of his last four races that makes me think he can win the BC Classic at 1 1/4 miles.

NT

Believe me, I'm not Pletcher fan and would expect and hope for him to have the same dismal time this year at the BC as he always does, but I missed the part in the Whitney when Lawyer Ron was stopping and only came home, his last 3f, in 36 flat.

Why would the owners of this horse not want to run him in the Classic?

IMO, he actually ran quite well in the stretch of the Derby. Street Sense passed him at the 1/8 pole and quickly opened up by 2. Hard Spun basically matched him stride for stride to the wire, only losing by less than 3.

The reason you wouldnt want to run in the Classic is because he cannot run that far.

Okay, I give up. But I leave you with this. Who thought Cat Thief would run that far? Not me and I bet him in many, many races leading up to that point.

Also, this is a Hard Spun thread. To continue this converstaion please start your "Lawyer Ron can't run a mile and a quarter" thread.

CJ had the pace figure blisteringly fast for the Derby...and that 3rd quarter you speak of was factored into the figure.

If that 3rd quarter helped Hard Spun so much, wouldn't it also have helped the horses who stalked his pace from the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th? They all finished a mile up the track.