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-   -   Nice win by Flashy Bull (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=14286)

Linny 06-18-2007 12:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by paisjpq
put those three names together and you get yourself a hat-trick of a disaster for the racing end of the business.

It's the breeding boom trifecta. Breeding has become the tail that wags the racing dog.

NoLuvForPletch 06-18-2007 12:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Linny
Sec was sold BEFORE the TC not after. The boom in stud values traces to the early 80's and the opening up of the international market. No one horse or human is responsible but lets face it, since 2000, how many of the "best" 3yo colts have run on at four, at all? Tiznow did, but honestly with his breeding, no one was screaming for him, even after his BC win. Similarly Albert the Great. Of the "classic" colts most retired w/out even finishing their 3yo campaigns. I am not implying that colts like Point Given, FuPeg or Afleet Alex and Smarty Jones were "horses for the ages" but they were leaders in their class who could have provided top quality racing in the 4up division. PG, Alex and Smarty all retired with "injuries" that did NOT preclude racing again.
At some point in the 80's established, successful racehorses with desireable breeding became to valuable to race.

We can only hope that the best colts of the next few years will actually be geldings, or at best modestly bred entire males. It's the best shot we'll have at high class racing for older horses.

Don't you think that horses like those you mention are most likely going to add to the problem with the breed? Horses that can't even finish their 3YO campaigns are supposed to produce the next crop of horses? The durability of the breed is already in serious jeopardy. Now throw these horses into the mix, that have less than 15 starts (just throwing a general number out there) in their career, and chances are the durability will be weakened even more. Point Given - 13 starts, Smarty Jones - 9 starts, Afleet Alex - 12 starts. Hell, Teuflesberg raced 11 times as a 2YO. At least he seems a like durable animal.

The Indomitable DrugS 06-18-2007 03:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
Here's a question.......where did it really start? I mean, we used to have good horses, with at least reasonable regularity. Now, it's just an absolute farce.......a masquarade ball if you will. NW3Xs going to the ball dressed as Grade 1 winners

If you believe Jerry Brown......the opposite is happening.

It would be really lovely if he made a cameo here on this specific topic.

blackthroatedwind 06-18-2007 03:29 PM

I'll give him a call.

Indian Charlie 06-18-2007 03:35 PM

robert sangster

King Glorious 06-18-2007 06:32 PM

This is why I like this forum. There are more actual horsepeople on here that know the game than just a bunch of people that like them cause they are so pretty. I've been bringing up this topic for years now. I remember when Eddington won the Pimlico Special and it just sickened me. The only reason he won it was because every single horse that SHOULD have been there and WOULD have been there had this been the late 80's to the late 90's.....was gone. Either they were retired, injured, or just resting. Yet, he won it and everyone thought all of a sudden that this made him a good horse. U try to tell some people that just because Flashy Bull or Colonial Colony won this race doesn't make them a legit grade one horse and they'll argue that it does. To me, a legitimate grade one horse is one that u could drop into any era and they would be competitive with just about any other horse.

blackthroatedwind 06-18-2007 06:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by King Glorious
To me, a legitimate grade one horse is one that u could drop into any era and they would be competitive with just about any other horse.


I knew if I hung in there, and slogged through your insane posts, I would eventually uncover a gem.

10 pnt move up 06-18-2007 06:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
If you believe Jerry Brown......the opposite is happening.

It would be really lovely if he made a cameo here on this specific topic.

an absolutely preposterous position

The Indomitable DrugS 06-18-2007 07:16 PM

Entertaining never-the-less

miraja2 06-18-2007 07:35 PM

Man you guys are really hard on poor old Flashy. Sure he had a really good trip, but did you see the way he moved past a rabbit, a Hawthorne horse, and a need-the-lead horse that didn't have the lead? What a move!! Then he managed to break 13 seconds for the final furlong! What a superstar!

Although his victory may be a bad sign for the sport, it is certainly a good thing for us as handicappers. He is now coming off of 4 straight victories, which means that even if they run him in a legitimate G1 (especially if it is at 10f) he may receive some play at the windows. That is good for us.

Cajungator26 06-18-2007 08:04 PM

Didn't Jerry Bailey say that Eddington was one of the most talented horses he ever rode? :rolleyes:

SentToStud 06-19-2007 07:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by miraja2
Man you guys are really hard on poor old Flashy. Sure he had a really good trip, but did you see the way he moved past a rabbit, a Hawthorne horse, and a need-the-lead horse that didn't have the lead? What a move!! Then he managed to break 13 seconds for the final furlong! What a superstar!

Although his victory may be a bad sign for the sport, it is certainly a good thing for us as handicappers. He is now coming off of 4 straight victories, which means that even if they run him in a legitimate G1 (especially if it is at 10f) he may receive some play at the windows. That is good for us.

It would have been worse for the sport had Diamond Stripes won.

miraja2 06-19-2007 08:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SentToStud
It would have been worse for the sport had Diamond Stripes won.

Please note that I said Flashy Bull's win was a bad sign for the sport, not bad for the sport. That is very different.
There is nothing wrong with Flashy Bull. He is a nice horse that has now won four races in a row. I always like to see these former Triple Crown trail horses do well at ages four and beyond. I just think the fact that he is now a "G1 winner" is a bit of a joke.
Just out of curiosity, why do you think a Diamond Stripes victory would have been so bad? Wouldn't an undefeated 4yo gelding be kind of interesting?

SentToStud 06-19-2007 09:03 AM

I should have said a worse "sign" for the sport I guess.

Like most, I'm not thrilled with what is passing for Grade 1 winners. Diamond Stripes is nice and all that but to see a horse as 2nd favorite in a G 1 race who never ran in a stakes vs older horses is, I think, a worse sign. That's just my opinion.

I'm just a very old man who yearns for the old days when the summer handicap races meant something and the fall weight-for-age races determined the champs.

robfla 06-19-2007 09:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pmayjr
It's nice to see another potential BC Classic runner emerge. Nice win.

BC Mile and seventy yards is the goal for this horse. BCC is out of the question.

blackthroatedwind 06-19-2007 09:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SentToStud
I should have said a worse "sign" for the sport I guess.

Like most, I'm not thrilled with what is passing for Grade 1 winners. Diamond Stripes is nice and all that but to see a horse as 2nd favorite in a G 1 race who never ran in a stakes vs older horses is, I think, a worse sign. That's just my opinion.

I think I see what you're getting at but I don't quite think this part is relevant. Plenty of horses have been favored or second choices in their initial foray against older horses. Diamond Stripes won his second race, a NW1X, late at Saratoga last summer. I'm not exactly sure which races versus olders he missed while racing and ready.

SentToStud 06-19-2007 09:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
I think I see what you're getting at but I don't quite think this part is relevant. Plenty of horses have been favored or second choices in their initial foray against older horses. Diamond Stripes won his second race, a NW1X, late at Saratoga last summer. I'm not exactly sure which races versus olders he missed while racing and ready.

That's exactly my point. In modern times racing, he missed nothing. The Foster was, I think, the third 9F+ G1 of the year following the Donn and SAH. Pre-Breeders Cup, you would never have seen a horse with his resume prep for a race like this with a single race against n3x competition and come in it arguably worthy of being second choice.

ArlJim78 06-19-2007 09:41 AM

In these times the gap between a sharp improving N3x horse and a competitive GR1 horse is not so large. The ranks are thin at the top.

SentToStud 06-19-2007 09:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArlJim78
In these times the gap between a sharp improving N3x horse and a competitive GR1 horse is not so large. The ranks are thin at the top.

True. Alas, I lament.

miraja2 06-19-2007 10:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArlJim78
In these times the gap between a sharp improving N3x horse and a competitive GR1 horse is not so large. The ranks are thin at the top.

Ain't that the truth.
You don't need to look any further than the aforementioned Flashy Bull so see it.
On April 18th he won an OC 50k/N2X at Aqu, and less than two months later he won the G1 Stephen Foster. That is strange enough, but what really makes it strange is that he really didn't improve at all over those two months. He ran basically the same race on Saturday that he did in that race in April. In that one his effort was good enough to beat allowance horses by four lengths. Saturday it was good enough to win a G1.


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