Originally Posted by AeWingnut

Nafzger has his sights set on the BC Classic. A horse that wins the BC Juvenile/ KY Derby and the BC Classic could be approaching legend.
Where a horse that runs in a now meaningless Belmont and never going to run 12f on the dirt EVER again... gets nothing but "if only he had won the Preakness"

he didn't so now the race is going to be replaced by NBC with Tennis or something else worthless... :(

btw..

Commendable was probably the worst Belmont winner I can remember.
couldn't wait to toss him in his next start.

He's in Korea not sure why but he's in South Korea

Originally Posted by King Glorious

But even if the horse is doing just fine, I think that Nafzger has earned the right to know better for the horse than any of us. A lot of people criticized his plan to use only two preps. But he knew his horse. If he thinks the horse would be better served with a break now to point for the fall races, again, I think Nafzger has earned that right. There are plenty of other guys that have come along recently and been flashes in the pan and haven't earned that right to be unquestioned. I believe Nafzger has though.

The thing is that the Belmont is a mighty demanding race. In addition to the recent winners that Cannon listed, we could go even deeper. Look at horses that have run in all three TC races over the past 10 years. The list of horses that have won at least one TC race while running in all three over the past 10 years is:

Silver Charm
Real Quiet
Victory Gallop
Charismatic
Monarchos
Point Given
War Emblem
Funny Cide
Smarty Jones
Giacomo
Afleet Alex

That's 11 horses. Eight of the 11 didn't finish the year. This is a fact. Seven of those eight didn't run past the Belmont. This is a fact. As a group, the 11 horses went on to win a total of three races as 3yo's post TC. I've acknowledged in past posts that I understand that some of it was due to factors besides injury. And I do recognize that five of those horses did come back in later years and win some really good races. But recent history is not on the side of seeing either Curlin or Street Sense or Hard Spun do anything more this year should they run back in the Belmont. Only three of those on the list made it to the BC (Victory Gallop, War Emblem and Funny Cide).

Originally Posted by miraja2

Look at the horses that HAVE skipped one of the TC races (Empire Maker, Jazil etc.). Have they done a lot better?

Originally Posted by miraja2

This is the same argument that you made when you were arguing that Curlin should skip the Preakness. How did that one turn out?
Let's say Street Sense skipped the Belmont....took another week off....and ran in the Stephen Foster. Would that magically help his chances of winning the Jim Dandy months from now?
Look at the horses that HAVE skipped one of the TC races (Empire Maker, Jazil etc.). Have they done a lot better?

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Well Jazil skipped the Preakness and then won the Belmont. . .

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

If Street Sense does go to the Belmont and for whatever reason throws in a clunker, you'd have another ESPN expert writing a column criticizing Nafzger for sending him after having admitted that his primary focus had been on the derby in the first place. I can just see it "Nafzger should have known that his horse needed a break after two hard races..." blah,blah,blah.

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I said that I thought Curlin should skip the Preakness for his LONG TERM GOOD. I also said that he was good enough to win the race and he was indeed my pick to win it. So what is your point with that question? I also think that if Street Sense or Curlin is to run in the Belmont, they are both good enough to win it and one of them probably will. But again, I'm talking about the LONG TERM ramifications, not the short. I felt the exact way about Afleet Alex. U care to tell me how that one turned out? I felt the exact way about Point Given, Giacomo, Monarchos? Sure, PG went on to win the Haskell and Travers. Those were the only two races for those four horses combined.

It's not the timing alone of the race that concerns me. I wouldn't care if he ran back two weeks after the Preakness. It's the distance at the end of a trying period.

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

If Street Sense does go to the Belmont and for whatever reason throws in a clunker, you'd have another ESPN expert writing a column criticizing Nafzger for sending him after having admitted that his primary focus had been on the derby in the first place. I can just see it "Nafzger should have known that his horse needed a break after two hard races..." blah,blah,blah.