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-   -   Street Sense finally will get his chance to silence doubter (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=13246)

Bobby Fischer 05-16-2007 11:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
His one doubter on Earth left I assume......


That was a nice read.

In my Derby scenario I pictured Street Sense saving ground early, and then passing whoever had the lead in the stretch- (have to be either Hard Spun or Curlin) while on the outside.

I didn't think he would go for the rail, but that is how it happened.

I don't have as clear a picture of the exact type of race that will win the Preakness. I again think that Street Sense will be coming on the outside with his bid.

I am less worried about the trip than I am Hard Spun and Curlin. Street Sense's style means that having to check would cost him the race. Yet he is full of steam and moving late when others are tiring so he shouldn't have to check.

I think he only hangs here if Borel moves him too early or if he gets a terrible trip.

ateamstupid 05-17-2007 12:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer
That was a nice read.

In my Derby scenario I pictured Street Sense saving ground early, and then passing whoever had the lead in the stretch- (have to be either Hard Spun or Curlin) while on the outside.

I didn't think he would go for the rail, but that is how it happened.

I don't have as clear a picture of the exact type of race that will win the Preakness. I again think that Street Sense will be coming on the outside with his bid.

I am less worried about the trip than I am Hard Spun and Curlin. Street Sense's style means that having to check would cost him the race. Yet he is full of steam and moving late when others are tiring so he shouldn't have to check.

I think he only hangs here if Borel moves him too early or if he gets a terrible trip.

Calvin's specialty when he can't go up the rail.

the_fat_man 05-17-2007 12:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer
Watch Circular Quay on the keeneland futurity race view, and head-on view in that race. He is going to make a run, and when he is about to swing outside he is completely trapped into the turn, slams out against the horse who trapped him inside several times throughout the turn, finally breaks out of that and still gets 2nd. Much the best in that race.

He bumps once (or twice) with the horse to his outside on the turn NEVER losing stride. He's not trapped. He never breaks stride. He's just typically sucking along waiting for the others to run so that he picks up the pieces.
What I particularly enjoyed was his stretch run, where he's clunking along and the jock hits him lefty and he drifts out and then the jock switches the whip and he drifts in. He was Full of Run, to say the least. Was he drunk?

ninetoone 05-17-2007 01:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer
That was a nice read.

In my Derby scenario I pictured Street Sense saving ground early, and then passing whoever had the lead in the stretch- (have to be either Hard Spun or Curlin) while on the outside.

I didn't think he would go for the rail, but that is how it happened.

I don't have as clear a picture of the exact type of race that will win the Preakness. I again think that Street Sense will be coming on the outside with his bid.

I am less worried about the trip than I am Hard Spun and Curlin. Street Sense's style means that having to check would cost him the race. Yet he is full of steam and moving late when others are tiring so he shouldn't have to check.

I think he only hangs here if Borel moves him too early or if he gets a terrible trip.

I think being 19th out of a 20 horse field in the Derby was not a wise move by Calvin, although I can't deny it worked out for him. Run that race 100 times though, with him in that same spot, and I think he only wins about 10% of the time if he's lucky. More times than not, he would have to lose momentum at some point trying to pass 18 horses. If things played out the way they normally would have, we'd be talking about how Hard Spun won the Derby, and SS backers would be playing him as the 2nd choice in the Preakness on the 'troubled trip' angle.

hi_im_god 05-17-2007 01:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ninetoone
I think being 19th out of a 20 horse field in the Derby was not a wise move by Calvin, although I can't deny it worked out for him. Run that race 100 times though, with him in that same spot, and I think he only wins about 10% of the time if he's lucky. More times than not, he would have to lose momentum at some point trying to pass 18 horses. If things played out the way they normally would have, we'd be talking about how Hard Spun won the Derby, and SS backers would be playing him as the 2nd choice in the Preakness on the 'troubled trip' angle.

"although I can't deny it worked out for him"

you aren't trying hard enough. some people think the war was a good idea. follow their example.

"Run that race 100 times though, with him in that same spot, and I think he only wins about 10% of the time if he's lucky."

you missed a "0" in that percentage or meant "unless" instead of "if".

"More times than not, he would have to lose momentum at some point trying to pass 18 horses."

i bet the red sea but have come to accept the win by moses. learn from me.

"If things played out the way they normally would have, we'd be talking about how Hard Spun won the Derby, and SS backers would be playing him as the 2nd choice in the Preakness on the 'troubled trip' angle"

most ss backers are all over hard spun in that universe. someone needs to empty the triple crown winner drool bucket in both.

ateamstupid 05-17-2007 01:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hi_im_god
i bet the red sea but have come to accept the win by moses. learn from me.

I'm getting a little sick of the Department of Street Sense Defense, but that was a pretty funny line.

ninetoone 05-17-2007 01:54 AM

blah blah blah blah :D

ARyan 05-17-2007 09:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
His one doubter on Earth left I assume......

In my final post here before the Kentucky Derby---I wrote about Calvin Borel's otherworldly success from an ROI standpoint. If you simply bet $100 on every Borel mount at CD over the last 12 months, you would have made a $37,827 profit.

I ended the post with the following....

"In a 20 horse field, with all the other riders aware of his dedication to riding the rail, we should now finally get to find out what Street Sense is capable of, when he doesn't get a magical rail-skimming ride from Calvin."

We found out no such thing! I had a feeling Borel might have been insane enough to attempt a daring last-to-first rail run---but, obviously he would get stopped, and we'd be hearing his Derby backers complain about his ride up until the Preakness.

Not only has Street Sense never run a really good figure when he's not had a dream trip, unmolested rail-run...but he shows many of the same bad habits through the final furlong of those races, that his sire was famous for.

In this decade, the spectacular Street Cry was arguably as brilliant in route races as any horse not named Ghostzapper. However, he had a very serious hanging problem.

He put on dazzling displays of hanging in both the Del Mar Futurity and Norfolk Stakes.

In the Del Mar Futurity, pacesetter Flame Thrower was involved in a 4 way head-to-head pace battle with three other VERY FAST horses. They being Arabian Light (who worked 20 and change at Barretts March and later set the pace in the BC Juvie after winning a Grade 1) Squirtle Squirt (who later won a Breeders Cup Sprint) and High Cascade (who buried Point Given in a wire-to-wire MSW win in his previous start)

Meanwhile, Street Cry rated well off this 4-way head-to-head battle up front, racing in 6th place after a half mile, he made an eye-catching move to confront Flame Thrower at the 1/8th pole. But, he hung like rotten salami through the last furlong. Turning a certain victory into a puzzling defeat.

The "ultra gutsy" Flame Thrower also fought him off in an epic stretch battle in the 105 Beyer Norfolk Stakes.

Street Cry ran 3rd to Macho Uno and Point Given in the Juvenile, according to the chart he "loomed a solid threat for the last eighth but gained only slightly." Street Cry made eight American starts, and had a 8-2-5-1 record. His lone stake win coming in a 118 Beyer Stephen Foster tour de force at Churchill Downs.

However, Street Cry's finest moment of hanging never came in America. In the 2002 UAE Derby, he made an eye-catching move to sieze a lead in deep stretch, seemingly mowing down Lido Palace and Express Tour, and headed for certain victory. However, after passing Express Tour and taking a half length lead on him, he went about his stretch antics, and was beaten. It was truly a legendary piece of hanging.

Street Cry blew horses off the track and ran gigantic figures when he won. When he won, he won spectacularly, when he lost, he hung spectacularly. He was the anti-John Henry. He's the last horse you'd want in a dog fight.

Very quietly, in his last two starts, his son Street Sense has bore in late through the stretch. He's shown signs of hang in his races when he doesn't get his preferred dream trip, and until he shows he can both run a good figure and win a race, without getting his trip....I will stubbornly continue to use him underneath in all exotics, and hope his impossiblestreak of perfect trips finally comes to an end.

There is no way the other jockeys let him skate up the rail this time---and I doubt his one explosive move will be enough to circle and drowned this field---he's going to have to win the Preakness in the final furlong, and without his trip....and when he does that....he'll shut me up for good...and this lunacy will cease.

Yawn.....

I'm bored with this...

See you after Saturday...

The Indomitable DrugS 05-17-2007 10:59 AM

For the record....

I certainly don't think he will bounce.

milliam 05-17-2007 12:01 PM

We are forgetting a strong angle NYRA can't catch a break anywhere, a possible Street Sense going for the crown vs a possible showdown with RTR is asking alot.

The Indomitable DrugS 05-17-2007 12:05 PM

For the record....

I certainly don't think NYRA's luck (or lack of luck) will have anything to do with the outcome on Saturday.

milliam 05-17-2007 12:16 PM

This is a Karma angle similar to Mazurs outstanding info but this is free.

Bobby Fischer 05-17-2007 05:01 PM

can't find the overhead view of the Keeneland Futurity
 
On the head-on view from calracing:
time - amateur analysis
1:05 - horses enter the far turn
1:08 - circular quay starts outside (on rail blue orange - looks purple)
1:11 - CQ trapped inside of Birdbirdistheword (yellow on side of CQ)
1:18 - CQ still trapped horses brush
1:20 - trapped Johnny V. Slams CQ into Birdbirdistheword while yelling expletives
1:21 - CQ swings out to try to bump again but Bird is finally moving
1:35 - Velasquez cuts off birdistheturd
1:50- CQ appears to pass poorHunter after the wire

fpsoxfan 05-17-2007 08:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by milliam
We are forgetting a strong angle NYRA can't catch a break anywhere, a possible Street Sense going for the crown vs a possible showdown with RTR is asking alot.

This I believe is the only thing that can stop Street Sense....The NYRA SHiatty luck theory.

estreetposse 05-17-2007 08:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fpsoxfan
This I believe is the only thing that can stop Street Sense....The NYRA SHiatty luck theory.


How about my shiatty luck? No beer tent, what the hell!!

fpsoxfan 05-17-2007 08:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
For the record....

I certainly don't think NYRA's luck (or lack of luck) will have anything to do with the outcome on Saturday.

Interesting coming from the same guy who keeps saying that Street Sense won the Derby only by a lucky trip.

fpsoxfan 05-17-2007 08:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by estreetposse
How about my shiatty luck? No beer tent, what the hell!!

Are we having a Preakness Beer Tent?

estreetposse 05-17-2007 08:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fpsoxfan
Are we having a Preakness Beer Tent?


Tom's...and don't you be one of these SS is freaking god people or you'll be banned from estreet...wipe yer chin off, ya got some SSSppuunnkk on it!!!!


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