I can't believe you are concerned with a workout and how strenuous it was or wasn't.

TFM,

I think he needs a great trip, while the other two have poor trips, to have a chance. If they all get a fair shot, Curlin is no better than 3rd best.

If Hard Spun gets a rough trip, it is very unlikely that Street Sense will. If the Derby winner gets a rough trip, it most likely means Hard Spun is not. I think either of those beats Curlin even with moderate adversity. I'm not even convinced he is better than Sedgefield or King of the Roxy.

In order to show improved early speed, like he will probably need to in order to fall into that trip....it would have helped if he'd have worked in a manner that could put him on his toes a little more.

As you know....the speed horses show through the early stages of races can be tweaked by how they are handled coming into the race.

A bad trip for SS is someone blocking the rail.

What you say is true, but if I was going that deep to figure out who I would or would not bet, I'd find another race. Being up close is probably not a good idea in my opinion, but I guess we'll see on Saturday.

It is obvious that a few people on here do not value your opinion based on your continued stubborn aversion to admit when you were just wrong in your handicapping. Nobody, certainly not myself or anyone on this board, is 100% correct on every opinion on a horse or race. You are no different.

After Saturday, it will be very interesting to see what excuses you will come up with for why all the hypotheses you played out for everyone to read didn't pan out in reality.

At least you have some practice at doing so...

Wouldn't be the first time!!

I think CJ was just saying better value can be found elsewhere...and I think he's right.

My reaction to his post in this thread had more to do with something he posted in a different thread that I took as a slight. Perhaps he didn't mean it that way. Oh well, let's move on.
I don't want to hijack TWO threads just because apparently I am unusually irritable today.

I repsonded in the other thread, I didn't mean any ill will.

As for your sig, I'll take the Silver Charm/Free House/Captain Bodgit race, mostly because I was there.

You have no idea what you're talking about.

[quote=the_fat_man]It all depends; it's relative.

Is HS gonna have everything his own way as he did in the Derby?

Just how did HS have things his own way? He set honest fractions, and held on for a game 2nd, while all the other horses that tried to go with him backed up the track.

[quote=herkhorse]yea, he ran quick, but a talented front runner left alone on the lead, well the faster they go the better in my book...there is a large gap IMO in pressured pace and fast pace, to me Hard Spun set a fast pace.....you want to see a pressured pace, and it was fast as well, watch Holy Bull in the Travers in 94', he still won.

I didn't say he wasn't sharp, just that when he is wrong, just say, "Hey, I missed that one." Not make up trip excuses or not give a horse/jock/trainer some credit.

That was my point, not that he is a dullard when it comes to horse racing or handicapping.

We will learn more on Saturday.

If Street Sense wins--or gets beat a very short margin by a perfect trip aided Hard Spun or Curlin--without SS getting another perfect rail trip....I will have no trouble saying "I'm totally wrong about him....he's unarguably the best 3yo colt around."

Everyone knows how pretty I am already.....

In my opinion, Hard Spun did get to take advantage of using his preferred front-running tactics, and he also had the advantage of racing over the slightly favorable inside path.

However, Hard Spun earned BOTH the clear early lead, and rail position, because he ran very fast early to achieve both.

Everyone knew the pace would be to Street Sense's benefit going in, and the same should apply to the Preakness.

However Street Sense did not earn his trip. IMO, it was a combination of what will be remembered as a historically great ride, combined with the misjudgement of a few other jockeys (Zanjero's especially) that allowed him to pass 16 horses without leaving the rail.

Now, deep closers are ALMOST NEVER supposed to get trips like that--and Street Sense has three of them in his last four races. Why? IMO, because he has a jocked who's both commited to riding the rail and skilled at it. And also importantly...Street Sense has an uncommonly good turn-of-foot (by far his best asset) that allows him to take advantage of an opening, before it has time to close on him.

Just like in the Derby---I believe he can win the Preakness if he gets his trip, if he doesn't get his trip, I think he'll finish 2nd or 3rd....and I REALLY don't think he'll get his trip this time...though, I said the same going into the Derby.

I actually agree with this, but with that said Street Sense goes three wide both turns and runs off again I wont be floored either, lets face it he gassed the two strongest fields he has faced.