So knowing that he can cover 5 furlongs and not be blowing is the key to getting a mile and a quarter. I like Street Sense, but Hard Spun has an intresting look too.

I like Hard Spun as well. I don't think distance will be the issue w/ SS. If he can get the desired trip, he will be tough to beat. I kinda like the 3yr olds born earlier in the year. SS born in Feb. Hard Spun won't technically even be 3 till 5 days after Derby.

I guess the work shows a sign of fitness also.

lol...and curlin is going to be the fave?! i'm on hard spun, hell or high water, but no way street sense doesn't scare a lot of people right now. he's obviously at ease, fit, ready to go. and unlike some others heading in, his trainer knows how to win the derby.

So because Street Sense blew an easy :59, Curlin shouldn't be the favorite?

no, but when you add up everything each has done, i don't see that curlins accomplishments and ability add up to street senses...
street sense doesn't deserve to be the fave because of one work, but i don't think curlin should be when you look at his career and who he's raced.

I couldn't agree more... I'm glad, though. Let people throw their money on Curlin so that we can get higher odds on the real deserving favorite.

Battaglia may put Curlin as the Fav, but I have a stong feeling Street Sense will be the fav come race time.

EXACTLY!

OK so I am new here, 1st post.
This seems to be a nice forum, I have learned a lot and people seem nice. I joined after The Fairgrounds closed from our 1st meet back since Katrina. Wish I had known about SumWon then, maybe I met some of you at the FG.
Thanks to all that came to our devasted city and it was a great meet, so much fun. Until you lose your racetrack you don't know how much you miss it.
And I was routing for Sumwon that day at Kee, now I'm a SumWon fan too. Just seems so much fun for ya'll.

Anyway the SS workout. I have alerts from DRF for about 6 horses. Saw the SS one but the other day I also got one on AGS, it was at Kee and it was 5f in 58:80 but the workout was called Handily.
Is there a difference in Breezing and Handily? I'm just a huge fan and am just getting on the following workouts bandwagon.
Just wondering what that all means, it looks to me like AGS had a faster workout, hope someone will explain if he did or did not.
I'm on a few horses, like Hard Spun since Derby Prep day 2/10, he and CQ are just magnificent looking horses in person. Sorry to see Ketchikan and Notional out, I like Curlin, AGS, have been on Cowtown Cat, even had Dominican but it was a multiple wager day, he paid for the rest..LOL, like Zanjero and ScatD too, Zanjero just keeps improving, he didn't do so great at the Fairgrounds. And Slew's Tizzy just blew me away, my friend had been hot on him, he let him down at the FG.
Anyway, just some thoughts from a new person, and if anyone can explain the difference in the SS and AGS workout it would be appreciated.
Good Luck to all.

I'm thinking handily is with some urging from the jock, Breezing is more the horse doing the work. BTW welcome aboard!

But this thread was about a work, and it sounds like you're using Street Sense's work as final justification for him to be the favorite over Curlin, when I don't think it's that consequential in terms of the public's betting.

Hope not. ;)

Tueflesberg beat Hard Spun fair and square in the Southwest.
Tueflesberg held his own against Street Sense going nine furlongs in the Blue Grass while obviously racing at a distance that is a bit beyond optimum for him.

Tueflesberg has raced fairly often by modern standards, has some foundation, and had a very large experience edge over Curlin when they faced off in the Rebel, on the same track where he had just beaten Hard Spun.

In the Rebel, Curlin was making his second start, his stakes debut and his two turn debut.

In the Rebel, Curlin made a wide move on the second turn and completely dusted the field including Tueflesberg, and won by many open lengths.

My only point is that while Curlin hasn't been in a dog fight, and lacks normal derby foundation, I wouldn't dismiss him based on class, or because of who he raced against. Its not like this is such an overly classy group and in my view he fits right in.

My friend, there was nothing "fair and square" about the Southwest Stakes.

The winner took advantge of an uncontested early lead, through comically slow fractions, over what was unquestionably an inside-speed biased racetrack. That same day, a Lukas maiden parlayed the same circumstances, over the same track, into a jaw-dropping 107 Beyer.

Meanwhile, Hard Spun, who was on the early lead in every career start, was taken in hand hard as soon as the gates opened, rated wide and off the comically slow pace, and raced against the grain of everything.

However, the start prior in the stake at the Fairgrounds---Hard Spun beat Tueflesberg by something like 9 lengths---in that race---things were a lot more fair and a lot more square.

I have read accounts like yours many times, and just see it differently. I think people have accorded too many excuses to Hard Spun for that effort.

It was simply not a comically slow pace. Of course it wasn't Hard Spun's best race, and I'm not saying Tueflesberg is the better horse.

A bottom level claimer, at the same distance, set faster fractions earlier on in the card--and still went wire-to-wire.

AND, furthermore, that same bottom level claimer who went wire-to-wire, had never shown any hint of serious speed at any time in his career.

If you look at the naked fractions, I can see how you can be misled into thinking that there was a decent early pace in that race---but if you look at the other route races on that card---and the form of those horses setting those paces---I don't think anyone could argue with how slow that pace was.

Using naked fractions is every bit as faulty as using naked final times...you have to take into account how other horses on that card perform.

We disagree then, to me that race exposed a lack of versatility on Hard Spuns part. The points about being taken in hand, being wide, and against the bias to me don't add up to the clunker he threw in there. I mean that race did not not exactly represent a who's who of the crop.

He is still a puzzle for me because while I was so unimpressed with his Southwest, his comeback in the LanesEnd I thought was an exceptional effort.

Cobalt Blue, in his most recent race, faced all the things Hard Spun faced in the Southwest Stakes---and he was beaten over 20 lengths at something like even money.

It's very rare you see a horse against the pace, and against a strong bias, not run a career worst race on paper.

Of course I agree that the Southwest field was weak.

I think our disagreement on this topic stems from two things. I think our trip handicapping ideology is different, and the way we interpret pace is different.

To me, trips like Hard Spun had in the Southwest, are just about as bad as trips can possibly get. Even though they appear to be very good trips when all the circumstances aren't factored in.

If I watched the Southwest, without doing any work, or looking at the forms of any horses that day---I'd say something like "Wow! Hard Spun is a massive fraud!" after watching that race.

You totally lost me with Cobalt Blue. I don't see any similarity to Hard Spuns Southwest.

I didn't say Hard Spun got a good trip, but I certainly don't categorize it as the worst possible trip.

I also didn't say that he was a massive fraud, in act I've never referred to any horse as a fraud. I did say that I thought the race exposed a lack a versatility.

But what do I know, I'm just one of those people that doesn't do any work and looks at a race and says "WOW!"

Tberg was sick in the Rebel