Derby Trail Forums - What kinda price DO YOU want on you're Derby pick???

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Right Cardus. The ML odds set by the track oddsmakers usually add up to well over the track takeout. For the Arkansas Derby yesterday, the morning line added to 131%, which would only be reasonable if the takeout was 24%.

I wasn't sure if Hickory Hoff was giving what he thought would be fair odds given the takout (should add to 119% for a 16% takeout), or fair odds in the absense of takeout. (should add to 100%). The more useful figure for betting purposes is a line that adds to 100%.

--Dunbar

Math wasn't one of my better subjects...:p

KY Derby Future Wager Pool 3 Odds
# Horse M/L Odds
1 Any Given Saturday 15-1
2 Belgravia 50-1
3 Birdbirdistheword 50-1
4 Chelokee 15-1
5 Circular Quay 8-1
6 Cowtown Cat 15-1
7 Curlin 12-1
8 Deadly Dealer 50-1
9 Dominican 50-1
10 Great Hunter 10-1
11 Hard Spun 12-1
12 Liquidity 30-1
13 Nobiz Like Shobiz 6-1
14 Notional 15-1
15 Officer Rocket 50-1
16 Reporting for Duty 50-1
17 Sam P. 30-1
18 Scat Daddy 8-1
19 Stormello 20-1
20 Street Sense 5-1
21 Teuflesberg 50-1
22 Tiago 15-1
23 Zanjero 30-1

this is the futrue odds i got from drf.com. And i love it when the public jumps on a horse like Chelokee @15-1 and a horse like Curlin @ 12-1. I hope the same people making these future bets do the same come derby day and knock that horse to single digits for a ALW N1X horse

-bt-

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hickory Hill Hoff

It seems that almost every year the Derby pictured is muddled. This year is no expection and there is no "standout" horse. Last year, the three that I figured would be the "three betting" choices were - Barbaro, Brother Derek and Lawyer Ron. Sweetsouthernsaint snuck in late to be the slight favorite over the my top three. This year that horse may be Curlin , he may be even better... but has a lot of history to buck. I can't come up with three standouts like last year off the preps this year. I thought the Blue Grass would clear up that picture, but just made it harder. If the Derby was run today, these are the odds that I think the public will give for the respected starters...and (what I think they should be).

Street Sense 5-1 my odds: (4-1)
NoBiz Like Shobiz 4-1 (8-1)
Circular Quay 7-1 (10-1)
Curlin 8-1 (12-1)
Scat Daddy 10-1 (10-1)
Great Hunter 12-1 (7-1)
Any Given Saturday 10-1 (15-1)
Cowtown Cat 15-1 (12-1)
Hard Spun 20-1 (12-1)
Dominican 25-1 (20-1)
Tiago 25-1 (35-1)
Stormello 25-1 (20-1)
Zanjero 30-1 (20-1)

anybody else will be 30-1 or more and realistically should be that

i plan on making a huge win and place wager on NOBIZ and 5-1 will be fine with me.

Quote:

Originally Posted by POINTGIVEN1985

i plan on making a huge win and place wager on NOBIZ and 5-1 will be fine with me.

Better you than me...still don't trust him and in a full field of horses...no thanks
Better value elsewhere.

id like to see about 10/1+++ on great hunter.....i think that ill see just below that

Why so high on Dominican?

First, I think your line is pretty good. The fact that I can only identify one horse to argue about is a good indication. I am not sure where Dominican is on the future odds. But, the horse ran a great race and has run well every time he went out. Why is he all the way up at 20-1 in odds? I think 20-1 is a steal. I would put him at 12-1 and still take the bet.

Bloom

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hickory Hill Hoff

Math wasn't one of my better subjects...:p

Your "line" was way better than the usual morning line nonsense.

--Dunbar

Nobody is talking about Street Sense. Don't rule out this horse as he LOVES Churchill, and he basically ran a similar race in the Bluegrass to the race in the Lanes End last fall. He made the lead then was a little short. We all know what he did in his next start. Don't forget what Carl did with Unbridled in the Bluegrass and then 3 weeks later under the spires.

just for comparison, these are the best prices available from british bookies:

Curlin (5/1) ,
Scat Daddy (6/1) ,
Street Sense (7/1) ,
Nobiz Like Shobiz (9/1) ,
Circular Quay (10/1) ,
Dominican (14/1) ,
Great Hunter (14/1) ,
Notional (14/1) ,
Tiago (16/1) ,
Any Given Saturday (20/1) ,
Hard Spun (20/1) ,
Chelokee (25/1) ,
Cowtown Cat (25/1) ,
Stormello (25/1) ,
Zanjero (25/1) ,
Air Commander (33/1) ,
Deadly Dealer (33/1) ,
Drums of Thunder (33/1) ,
Ketchikan (33/1) ,
King Of The Roxy (33/1)

any nice bets there?