Birdbirdistheword is supposedly going to have a go at a turf career instead per Bloodhorse. They basically said they're out though. Not sure where they're looking but it ain't on dirt at Churchill in May apparently.

So, Birdbirdistheword, King of the Roxy, Sightseeing, Ketchikan, Adore the Gold, Reporting for Duty, and Belgravia can be taken off the list for sure.

Stormello is definite.

Things are looking better and better for Chelokee every day!

Updated with color-coded status key..

I thought sightseeing was definitely out...sounded that way in the article I read.

and of course Ketchikan

Bone bruise, right?

Notional Out
 

So now Notional is out, Street Sense loses and Great Hunter doesn't run huge. What about Shug coming back with Sightseeing?

Xchanger hasn't worked in ten days so I think he is done. The trainer of Officer Rocket said they'd only go to the Derby with a top two finish so he is out too. Cobalt Blue is in.

Are you sure Stormello's out? Seems like they were just bragging about how slow they made him go in a breeze. I hate to tell'em "tricking" a horse into not knowing they're in a timed situation is gonna be a lot more deceptive than 100K+ yelling and screaming as 20 horses go barreling around the track. Do they really think they just taught him to rate?

Unless something odd happens, Stormello is 100% definate for the Derby. In his last work, they tried to teach Stormello to rate.

Well, doesn't look like Matz is going to get to go again this year. I guess he can point to the Preakness.

Great Hunter
 

Maybe it doesn't matter but Great Hunter is listed twice. Since Chelokee is left out in the cold, Zanjero is my super secret hopefully 30-1 include in the exacta.

I just weighed him down big time

Rough Update
 

1 Street Sense (Street Cry) $1,532,000
2 Scat Daddy (Johannesburg) $1,308,500
3 Circular Quay (ThunderGulch) $1,116,134
4 Curlin (Smart Strike) $780,000
5 Great Hunter (Aptitude) $730,000
6 Nobiz Like Shobiz (Albert the Great) $778,500
7 Stormello (Stormy Atlantic) $642,900
8 Dominican (El Corredor) $633,848
9 Tiago (Pleasant Tap) $450,000
10 Cowtown Cat (Distorted Humor) $437,253
11 Hard Spun (Danzig) $360,000
12 Zanjero (Cherokee Run) $205,000
X Xchanger (Exchange Rate) $202,890
13 Storm in May
14 Any Given Saturday (Distorted Humor) $177,969
15 Liquidity (Tiznow) $161,200
16 Teuflesberg (Johannesburg) $160,440
17 Officer Rocket (GB) (Officer) $153,260
18 Cobalt Blue (Golden Missile) $150,000
19 Sam P. (Cat Thief) $146,500
X Skip Code (Skip Away) $133,185
X Sedgefield (Smart Strike) $127,500
20 Bwana Bull (Holy Bull) $125,000

Ketchikan (Mr. Greeley) $120,000
Chelokee (Cherokee Run) $100,000
Reporting for Duty (Deputy Commander) $100,000
Belgravia (Mr. Greeley) $86,490
Bold Start (Jump Start) $85,000
Joe Got Even (Stephen Got Even) $56,440

I think Chelokee will get in, he's sitting 22nd and There are a few in the top 20 that are unlikely. I dont know about Officer Rocket, but he didnt run that well yesterday maybe they will hold off on the derby. Who knows about Song in May also, so I think Chelokee will make it when all said and done.

Do you guys think that there is any chance that enough owners/trainers will make smart enough decisions that we might not end up with 20 horses this year?

I wish it would happen but it's the chance of a life time no matter how slim.
Just to have your horse run in the Derby is an accomplishment not too many people could pass up. We criticize them all the time but could you decide not to run?

A few have not run and it worked out for them. Many of the horses that run in the derby never do another thing after. and I don't mean the breeding shed either

I think we will have 19 with the possibility of a 20th if either Storm in May or Bwana Bull decide to foolishly go.

The 19:
1 Street Sense (Street Cry) $1,532,000
2 Scat Daddy (Johannesburg) $1,308,500
3 Circular Quay (ThunderGulch) $1,116,134
4 Curlin (Smart Strike) $780,000
5 Great Hunter (Aptitude) $730,000
6 Nobiz Like Shobiz (Albert the Great) $778,500
7 Stormello (Stormy Atlantic) $642,900
8 Dominican (El Corredor) $633,848
9 Tiago (Pleasant Tap) $450,000
10 Cowtown Cat (Distorted Humor) $437,253
11 Hard Spun (Danzig) $360,000
12 Zanjero (Cherokee Run) $205,000
13 Any Given Saturday (Distorted Humor) $177,969
14 Liquidity (Tiznow) $161,200
15 Teuflesberg (Johannesburg) $160,440
16 Cobalt Blue (Golden Missile) $150,000
17 Sam P. (Cat Thief) $146,500
18 Sedgefield (Smart Strike) $127,500
19 Chelokee (Cherokee Run) $100,000

Hey Steve, what did you hear about Sedgefield that caused you to cross him out? Last I heard they were considering trying to get him in yet another race to get enough earnings to get in. Now that they have enough I'd assume they'll just train up to the Derby. Was there something on ATRAB I missed?

Before yesterday's poor performance, Mr Holthus stated that if Officer Rocket was to run one-two in the AR Derby, that we would proceed to the KY Derby. Therefore, we will not be in the field this year.

On that note, he scoped clean yesterday after the race. he wasn't blowing hard at all. This just wasn't our day. It's hard for me to think that any horse was going to defeat Curlin yesterday. Unlike others in the industry, we could try to come up with ridiculous circumstances as to why he ran so poorly. However, this just wasn't our day. Now we must regroup and go from there.

I think today they said they're gonna train Sedgefield like he's going to the Derby and see how things shake out. He's not being taken off the trail by his connections. It'll be by lack of money if anything.