It's very likely you will have a 20 horse field...with 7 horses in that field exiting a win in either a Grade 1 or Grade 2 prep race.

Besides those 7---you will also have horses like Notional, the loser of the Nobiz/CQ Wood, and the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th place finisher in the Bluegrass whom all figure to get a at least a little bit of wagering support.

That's 12 horses out of 20 whom are likely to get support from the betting public. Of the other 8, you know almost all of them will get a little bit of attention as well. Even a crazy horse like Chelokee, whom will be the only horse in the race that fits the profile that each of the last four Derby winners fit, and is trainer by Matz, will get a little bit of attention.

Barring a few key injuries, the only way I see a runner going off at less than 3/1, would be if Street Sense wins the salty Blue Grass, and no one else looks impressive in the other preps. I don't really see that scenerio happening.

so if street sense wins the bluegrass vs a very very good group you dont see him being 5-2 or 2-1, this is all based on if, but if he wins the bluegrass he will go into the derby 2-2 on the year, he also would have defeated alot of the top contenders, and also already has a huge race over churchill

i read it, but even for someone like me who loves nobiz, even if he beats circular quay, and if street sense wins i could never see nobiz being anywhere near street sense's odds, i could see it like nobiz 5-1 and street sense 5-2

Don't forget Zanjero
 

Don't forget about Zanjero?
If he does well in the Blue Grass, like win or come in 2nd,
he will have great chance especially with the longer mile & a quarter distance
in the derby.

Agreed. I personally like his chances a lot, although most will say that he's not very fast.

I'm beginning to think you are a glutton for abuse. Didn't you get enough of it for writing Street Sense was "finished" before his last win?

--Dunbar

I agree with all of this. But the poster predicted the fav would go off at 5-1 or 6-1. I think it's very unlikely that there will be no horse at 9-2 or lower.

--Dunbar

they're won't be , someone will win impressively and the media will jump on the bandwagon. i'm predicting the fav will be about 3-1. but who wants the fave when its like bumper cars anyway. and i think the favorite wins that race like once every 7 or 8 years avg. unless theres truly a great horse the race is over rated. its a fun bet but some of the other derby card races are better for betting that day. as some other poster pointed out the best bets are the ones that come 2nd or 3rd. thats where the winner usually lands a good price and sometimes a bomb price. look for someone thats a little "short" or makes a big run but doesn't win. i rarely like the fave in that race but i did get burned by bellamy 2 years ago. he looked so good winning the wood. remember Gaucomo, i think he won 1 race after that. do folks really think hes good or or a horse that got a good trip on the right day ?

Well, since Giacomo is retired now...

I'd say he was a good horse at picking up the pieces after everything in front of him fell apart. He also liked Churchill Downs. He finished 4th in the BCC this past October. Not too shabby...

I was also on the Bellamy Road bandwagon and (stubbornly) remain convinced that he had the talent to really be something. It's too bad he couldn't stay sound enough to run.